Compared to the waves of coronavirus in Lithuania: the third wave affected the country differently

V. Zemlys – Balevičius stated on Facebook that the third wave affected the country differently.

“As the third wave accelerates, you can start to compare it with the second. The surprising thing is that the third wave affected Lithuania differently. There are 4 groups: Western Lithuania, Vilnius County, Kaunas County and the rest. Looking at the number of historical cases, the separation can be seen quite well, ”wrote V. Zemlys – Balevičius.

He wrote that a similar trend can be observed by looking at the dynamics of deaths.

“It is interesting that Vilnius county suffered relatively less during the second wave. Looking only at the third wave, you can see that it started in Vilnius and then moved to Kaunas and other regions. It is very obvious that the third wave in western Lithuania is still trying to get started.

Deaths as in the second wave persecution cases. As the third wave started in Vilnius, the number of deaths there also increased. In other regions, because the third wave came later or was not as high, the death toll has not increased yet, ”explained the data scientist.

He said vaccination also made a significant contribution, as the oldest age groups account for the highest number of deaths during the second coronavirus wave, and are now the fastest to get vaccinated.

And when comparing the number of cases in the age groups, it becomes clear that the number of cases in the older age groups has not yet increased significantly.

“But there was a similar effect in the second wave, first infecting the younger and more mobile parts of the population and then transmitting the infections to older people,” the data researcher wrote on Facebook.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius stated that we are now racing against time, so the time between 2 doses of the coronavirus vaccine should be extended and as many people as possible should be vaccinated.

“Will we be able to vaccinate the elderly to avoid a second wave of deaths or not? The greatest efforts to do so in the last days are now extremely important. Since even one dose provides considerable protection, one should follow the example of other countries and extend the interval between two doses, because only in this way will more lives be saved ”, V. Zemlys – Balevičius shared his ideas on Facebook.

He said that the third wave of coronavirus in the country is even milder.

“The third wave is milder so far, because the number of cases and deaths is not growing as fast as during the second. Although the restrictions have lost their effect, they still support the growth,” explained the data scientist.

Still, he said, the strict quarantine restrictions were in place for too long, putting tremendous pressure on him to destroy it.

“The application of restrictions is always a balance between the economic-psychological and death-hospitalization prices. As in the second wave, the cost of hospitalizations for a large proportion of the population is now too high. Unfortunately, for the The rest of the population, which is similar in size or even larger, the cost of economic and psychological constraints has become unbearable. Therefore, whether we like it or not, we now find ourselves in a place where a small and very famous part of the population has always wanted to be.

With the upcoming releases, we are actually moving to the Swedish epidemic management model, ”said the data scientist.

According to him, compliance with the restrictions moves into the public and business conscience, and state aid is provided through testing and vaccination.

“In the Swedish model, society and the companies themselves have an interest in complying with safety requirements that have not changed: reducing unnecessary contacts, maintaining distance, wearing masks indoors, preventive tests in high-risk activities and vaccination. Therefore, the rational part of society must continue to follow these recommendations.

The approaching warm weather and increasing vaccination rates should help this sector of society to live a safe life and a relatively free life. Unfortunately, the rest of society will similarly guarantee a stable number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths. It will be much smaller than during the second wave, but it will not allow the epidemic to go away in the summer as it was last year, “he said.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius emphasized that the most important thing now is to prepare for autumn and winter.

“Until then, the younger part of the population will probably not be licensed yet, and a third dose of the vaccine will be necessary.” This is to seriously prepare for never getting back on the rake.

Once again, preventive testing and vaccination should be key tools, as tracing contacts with NVSC competencies is a decade-long project and can be done in preparation for a new epidemic that is inevitable for the next decade at least. by the scientific community. Zemlys – Balevičius.