Visually data: a simple graph shows what proportion of the population is still at risk of covid

So that everyone can easily see what the real situation is, Nail Garejev, Ph.D., put the data into a simple visualization that is easy for everyone to understand.

The author explained that he used data on confirmed cases for visualization only.

“I didn’t try to guess how many untested people were sick,” Garejev said.

According to him, the visualization also included the sick even the patients (the accumulated number of identified cases is shown).

“It was assumed that very few of the identified patients received vaccines (it should be valid in Lithuania so far),” explained N. Garejev.

The author noted that the data is displayed through April 5, 2021. He used the numbers provided in the abstract https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data.

“Be sure to mention the area (where I work) to make it clear that I have no professional experience in epidemiological matters. Here I just used my skills to take numbers and represent them, ”asked the doctor of physics.

We move between a mediocre scenario and a pessimistic one

At the end of March, the members of the Council of Experts presented the data on the possible scenarios of the pandemic to President Gitan Nausėda.

Their calculations presented three possible scenarios. The experts found that if the acceleration of that period were maintained, we would reach an average of 7 days of 1,000 cases per day in mid-April, and if the growth were the same as at the beginning of the week of March 22 to 28, it would exceed the 2,000 daily cases in the second half of April.

The current seven-day average is 931 cases. In Vilnius County, the figures for Friday are the same as those for December 3.

Currently, the number of cases shows that we move between a mediocre scenario and a pessimistic one.

“Already at the end of March, when there was a meeting of experts with the president, we presented possible scenarios for the development of the pandemic and said that we could reach the 1000-1200 threshold in April.

Today we are already seeing what we have achieved. If that thousand will already be our usual number that we will see every morning in the fight statistics, or if it is a one-day number, we still have to wait. We know very well that it was a holiday weekend, people did not take the test during the holidays, that information walked a little slower, we still have a few days to see what the long-term trends are ”, said Mindaugas, Faculty professor of Public Health, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Stankoon.

The professor pointed out that just over a thousand cases is not the worst case.

“We’ve calculated that if we don’t really make it, we could have three thousand (per day) by the end of April. These are just scenarios, it doesn’t really mean that it’s already a doomed thing. (…) There’s no need to be intimidated or look too much, but it is necessary to take the recommendations seriously ”, emphasized M. Stankūnas.

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