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Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview with Argumenty i Fakty this week that there was no discussion on the unification of Russia and Belarus.
According to Whitmore, this was not the first attempt by a high-ranking Russian official to assure the world that nothing special was happening. For example, Grigory Rapota, the secretary of state for the Union of Russia and Belarus, who finished his job in March, said that a formal reunification of the countries was unrealistic and was not being considered.
Scanpix / ITAR-TASS photo / Grigory Rapota and Aliaksandr Lukashenko
The soon-to-arrive Russian ambassador to Minsk Dmitry Mezencev has taken the same initiative. He declared that Moscow had no intention of forming a joint army with Belarus.
“Such denials are a sign that we need to monitor even more closely what Moscow has done in Belarus. And not just because it has been joking for a long time: we don’t believe anything about Russia until the Kremlin denies it,” Whitmore writes.
The oligarchs’ glances at fertilizers
It is true that he points out that the statements of D.Peskov, G.Rapota and D.Mezencev are probably technically correct: that there will be no formal reunification of countries or armies.
Russia is supposed to take control of Belarus far from the way it occupied Crimea in 2014 and sparked the war in eastern Ukraine, as opposed to the invasion of Sakartvela in 2008.
“No, the Kremlin’s strategy is much more subtle. And successful. We must prepare for a slow, covert and methodical operation that will end for many people without even realizing it happened. It will be a smooth annexation,” says Whitmore.
He emphasizes that by looking at Russia’s actions in the economy, war and politics, the “direction of the movement” is more than clear. For example, veteran diplomat Yevgeny Lukyanov has been appointed the new Russian ambassador to Minsk.
“Twitter” nuotr./Jevgenijus Lukjanovas
He has experience not only in banking or finance, but also in KGB offices: the Kremlin-backed oligarchs seem determined to take control of key sectors of the Belarusian economy.
Whitmore: We must prepare for a slow, covert, methodical operation that will end without many people realizing it happened.
According to Kommersant, Lukyanov, who previously worked for both Dresdner Bank and VTB, “knows how to count money.” And this will come in handy at a time when the Russian company Uralkali, owned by oligarch Suleiman Kerimov, seeks to acquire Belaruskalij, a Belarusian fertilizer manufacturer.
„Reuters“ / „Scanpix“ nuotr./Suleimanas Kerimovas
Additionally, Russian chemical industry giant Uralchem, owned by Belarusian-born Russian citizen Dmitry Mazepin, plans to buy Grodno nitrogen.
Will use Russian ports
Recently, there have been more maneuvers to integrate the economies of both countries. Here is a report in the TASS agency that Moscow and Minsk are discussing a new terminal in the Russian port of Ust-Luga – transshipment of exported Belarusian fertilizers.
And in early March, Belarusian oil products were loaded onto ships in the same Ust Luga and St. Petersburg.
The transport ministers of the two countries signed an agreement in February, according to which 9.8 million tons would be handled through Russian ports in three years. tons of products: fuel oil, gasoline, diesel, oil.
The Belarusian economy essentially survives on the highly subsidized refining of Russian oil and its profitable exports. Of course, fertilizers are also important.
„Scanpix“ / ITAR-TASS nuotr./ sourceBelaruskalij ”
“To control the country’s economy, at least to some extent, Alexander Lukashenko opposed Russia’s demands to export these products through Russia for many years and used ports in Lithuania and Latvia.
But now he is not resisting, which means that Moscow is clenching its fist, “Whitmore said.
Exercise after exercise
The economy is one thing, the military maneuvers are another. The Kremlin, together with Belarus, has just completed its second consecutive joint military exercise, which has lasted almost the entire last month, and this year there is still a big exercise “Zapad 2021”, which will take place in September. .
Military analyst Michael Kofman said last week that Moscow was trying to replicate what NATO and the NATO countries had been doing for several years: Alliance forces in the region were permanently changing, but were not abandoning it. .
Photo by Scanpix / ITAR-TASS / Russian and Belarusian military exercises
“It just came to our knowledge then de facto it can take over the permanent presence of forces in Belarus, “said M. Kofman.
In addition, on March 2, the Defense Ministries of both countries signed a five-year strategic partnership agreement. Plans have also been announced to establish three permanent military training centers in Nizhny Novgorod, Kaliningrad and Grodno.
Finally, Lukashenko hinted in early March that Russian military aircraft could be deployed on Belarusian territory. It is true, he added: “There are enough bases, there is no need to build them, to spend money.”
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Moscow also seeks to secure greater dominance in Belarusian politics after the current crisis, with Russia pressuring Lukashenko to adopt constitutional amendments and expand parliamentary power. The Kremlin could then control it through pro-Russian parties.
Therefore, the explanations of senior Russian officials that there are no plans for the unification of the countries are a mirage and a distraction. No formal annexation is required. And the strategic consequences of such a soft annexation for the United States and NATO would be enormous, “Whitmore is convinced.
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