[ad_1]
An analysis of the main European countries – France, Germany, Spain and Italy – shows that bankruptcies cannot be avoided, they are postponed and it is only a matter of time before we see a growing wave of them. In Lithuania, too, 6 percent. The number of companies belonging to the highest (5%) and high (12%) risk classes increased by 21%. all Lithuanian companies, the report says.
Only in France – 22 thousand. invisible bankruptcies
A Coface study conducted in March shows that in France, for example, the fate of up to 22,000 companies is unclear. The growth in the number of bankruptcies is expected to begin this year and continue through 2022.
According to Coface, an estimated 8.6 thousand. bankruptcies in the country’s construction sector, 1.8 Cerdocyon. – in retail trade, 1.5 thousand. – in manufacturing, 1.2 thousand. – in business services and 800 in the transport sector. While the economic crisis has affected different sectors in different ways, insolvencies have decreased in all sectors, including those that have been suspended for several months. If the Solidarity Fund had not been created in France, the performance of the hospitality and restaurant sector would have fallen by around 109% instead of the current 17%, according to a Coface study.
It is also observed that last year “only” 126 thousand people lost their jobs due to corporate bankruptcies, which is the lowest figure since 2006.
German companies, with the exception of the metal and automotive sectors, have been bailed out by a moratorium.
According to Coface, the number of invisible bankruptcies in Germany now stands at 21%. In 2019, there were 3.95 thousand insolvency cases. At the start of the pandemic, Coface estimated that bankruptcies in the country would increase by 9% in 2020 compared to 2019, but ultimately fell by 15%.
This result was partly due to the German government’s decision to temporarily declare a moratorium on insolvency proceedings and give companies access to support measures.
However, in the German metal and automotive sectors, which entered recession even before the pandemic began, the number of insolvencies increased compared to 2019.
In Spain, sick leave has paid off, with the exception of 90%. fallen tourism
Coface’s economic model has shown that holiday spending in the Spanish retail sector has helped offset falling profits: profits fell 26% in the second quarter of 2020, compared to a 67% drop in the period in which no such measures were taken. .it paid off for the tourism sector, whose knockout
Coface equates a meteorite fall, the second in 2020. In the first half of the year, 90% of more bankruptcies compared to the same period of 2019. It is estimated that there may be some 1.6 thousand invisible bankruptcies in Spain. – this is 34 percent. the number of bad debts in 2019.
When evaluating the state of the Italian economy, Coface found that the number of invisible bankruptcies was 4.1 thousand. – now represents about 39%. the total number of bankruptcies in 2019. The credit insurance company estimates that the number of bad debts in this country should have increased by 7%.
2019 from the Statistics Department of the Republic of Lithuania According to the 2006 data, the exports of Lithuanian companies to Germany amount to 2606.2 million. Eur y represents 8.1 percent. of all Lithuanian exports. Exports to France amount to almost 748 million. EUR and amounts to 2.5%, to Spain – 315.24 million. EUR, and Italy – 360 million. EUR.
The situation in Lithuania is better, but the same trends apply
Describing the situation in Lithuania and other Baltic countries, Mantvydas Štareika, Director of Coface Baltics, points out that, compared to other European countries, the economic situation in Lithuania is better.
“Lithuania’s GDP fell the least of all the EU countries: 0.9 percent, compared to 3.6 percent. GDP decline in Latvia and 2.7 percent. Fall. in Estonia. This gives hope that the Lithuanian economy will recover faster than countries that depend more on tourist flows or the automobile industry, such as Germany, France, Spain or Italy “, says M. Štareika.
According to Creditinfo, 6% of Lithuania has reached the insolvency threshold this year. points plus companies
However, the trends observed in Europe are also valid in our country, confirms the credit bureau Creditinfo Lietuva.
According to data from the beginning of this year, compared to the situation in 2019. In January, the risk of Lithuanian companies operating in all business sectors increased. This year, up to 12 percent. of all Lithuanian companies are classified as high risk of bankruptcy (8% a year ago) and 5%. – for the highest bankruptcy risk class (was 3%). The highest number of risk companies (21%) is found among hotels and among companies that have declared their catering activities (20%). 8 percent. trucking companies have also entered the highest and highest bankruptcy risk classes this year.
The outlook is worrying
Coface experts predict that despite the abundance of insolvency signs from some companies, not all cases will surface this year. This is due to a number of factors, including the moratoriums still in place on insolvency proceedings, government support measures, and bank incentives.
The wave of bankruptcies that will begin this year will depend directly on the period after which state aid ceases, and the end of the latter will be determined by the speed of vaccination of the population achieved in each country.
This process will also depend on the willingness of states to continue providing support, especially since the vast majority of businesses will only begin repaying state-guaranteed loans from 2022 onwards.
It is strictly forbidden to use the information published by DELFI on other websites, in the media or elsewhere, or to distribute our material in any way without consent, and if consent has been obtained, it is necessary to indicate DELFI as the source.
[ad_2]
