From German Experts: A Dramatic Forecast For COVID-19

The alarming forecasts were reflected in a report summarizing the current situation, published on Friday, according to the portal thelocal.de.

It stands out, among other things, that as of April 12, approximately 350 infections will have been registered for every 100,000 people in a period of 7 days. population. The projected figure is well above the previous record of December 23, particularly 214 cases during the period.

The spread of the variety B.1.1.7, commonly known as the British version, provided the basis for talking about such a perspective. Now the number of citizens in Germany who receive this strain of the virus is around 50%. all infected COVID-19.

The B.1.1.7 strain is believed to be more easily transmitted and more aggressive than previously identified strains of this virus.

“The number of B.1.1.7 infections recorded per week indicates a steady increase and doubling of the number of cases approximately every twelve days. This is confirmed by the trends that emerged during the period between the second and the ninth calendar week, ”states the RKI report.

In the worst case, the number of infections in 7 days in mid-April could reach 500, well, and if things go in the maximum favorable direction, the limit of 200 infections will be exceeded, so even in this If the level of contagion would be equivalent to the statistics for December, intensive care units.

It should be noted that the forecast did not take into account the possible consequences of relaxing or tightening the quarantine rules.

It is also important to know that in recent weeks there has been a trend towards deregulation in various regions of Germany, with schools, beauty salons and more reopening.

On Monday morning, specialists from the Robert Koch Institute reported 6,604 new cases registered in just 24 hours. For comparison, 1,593 similar cases were recorded a week ago. The Agency also reported the deaths of 47 other patients, but less than a week ago.

On Monday, the number of infections diagnosed in 7 days amounted to 82.9 cases per 100,000. population. The trend now observed continues since February 14, when the number of cases in 7 days was reduced to 60.

Germany recorded a sharp increase in the incidence of coronavirus infection last Thursday, with Robert Wieler, head of the disease control agency, warning that the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has started in the most economically viable member of the European Union.

“We should be concerned in Europe,” Wieler told ACANU in Geneva on Wednesday.

“With regard to Germany, we are at the beginning of the third wave,” he added, highlighting the importance of preventive measures for the population, including the use of masks and social distance.

Germany has begun to relax quarantine measures very gradually since the end of February. First, younger students were allowed to return to schools and some stores were able to reopen last week.

The country felt public fatigue over constraints when leisure, cultural and sports facilities were closed in November. Direct training has also been suspended since mid-December and most stores have closed. However, epidemiologists have noted that new, more contagious variants of the coronavirus have begun to spread and that morbidity has also increased in neighboring countries, including the Czech Republic and Poland, and experts have repeatedly called for premature moderation to be avoided.

However, Mr. Wieler said there were also encouraging signs when the vaccination campaign began.

“We are already seeing the impact among those over 80 years old [gyventojų]. [Koronaviruso] portability is drastically decreasing, ”he emphasized.
Germany, which began vaccinating the population in late December, focused its efforts mainly on the oldest and most vulnerable members of society, but criticized the pace of the vaccination campaign, which was much slower than in countries like the United Kingdom. or the United States. .

But Wieler said he was convinced the light was already visible at the end of the tunnel. If the situation “does not get completely out of control … we will regain control in Germany next fall. I am absolutely convinced of that, “said the official.

In Germany, the difficult situation due to the coronavirus pandemic will continue until around July. This was stated last Wednesday by the VFR Chancellor, Angela Merkel, in videoconference format with the people of the country.

“There are three or four more difficult months ahead: March, April, May, June,” said the German head of government. Merkel hopes that the vaccination of the country’s citizens will give results as early as July.

“It will be much better then,” said the German chancellor. But he cautioned that it was unclear what the situation would be with the coronavirus mutations.