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In a report to assess the military capabilities of the Nordic countries, FOI experts analyzed the “balance of power between the West and Russia.” The report consists of several parts. In the first, the authors analyzed the security situation in northern Europe, and in the second, the military potential of Denmark, Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany, France, Great Britain and the United States.
Its authors recall that former US President Barack Obama “has launched a historic operation to redistribute troops closer to the borders of Russia, including the Baltic states and Poland.” Donald Trump continued the US policy launched after the annexation of Crimea and the start of hostilities in Ukraine, despite his own criticism of some members of the NATO alliance.
NATO countries close to Russia’s borders have also increased their funding and military capabilities. However, Russia has an advantage, “especially on the ground,” the report said.
“It just came to our attention then. At least until the United States could come here with larger ground forces. And it would take at least a couple of months,” said Krister Pallin, one of the report’s authors, citing Sweden’s SVT.
Experts suggest a “better and faster” policy instead of “more”
To assess the relationship between the Russian and Western forces, the experts created a simulation of the Baltic attack on the Russian side and concluded that Russia “has a good chance of winning.”
According to Swedish analysts, it is not necessary for NATO countries to increase their forces, but it is necessary to act more quickly to prevent possible attacks. One of the main problems, according to them, is the geographical distribution of the NATO countries. According to the Swedes, the preparation of countries for war is different and some of them are not prepared for it. However, you can see NATO’s military superiority in the air and at sea.
Despite rising military spending and bringing NATO positions closer to Russia, experts did not see any major shift in the balance of power. “Basically, the picture is very similar in terms of availability of units and their quality. There is a closer deployment, which was not the case in 2014 and which is gradually improving. And there are much simpler measures that can improve the opportunities of the West ”, Says the expert.
The report’s authors suggest strengthening NATO forces in response to the Russian threat, expanding cooperation with Ukraine and Georgia, which want to join NATO, and being prepared to tighten sanctions against Moscow.
The world has changed in ten years and NATO needs to adapt
The report’s authors recall that the latest “NATO Strategic Concept”, published in 2010, set the goal of strategic cooperation with Russia, and China was not mentioned at all. Since then, absolutely everything has changed, experts warn: first, Russia has rejected the West’s offer of cooperation, and second, China has become one of the main powers in power and begins to threaten interests. of NATO countries.
Yet despite China’s power, the report’s authors ranked Russia first in terms of threat because it is close and poses a direct threat to alliance members.
There are also previous NATO claims to Russia, including the illegal annexation of Crimea and the invasion and occupation by part of Ukraine, the continued occupation of part of the internationally recognized territory of Georgia, the obstruction of the integration of Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. , In the Arctic. , and also “seeks hegemony in the post-Soviet space.”
Furthermore, the authors recall Russia’s withdrawal from arms control treaties and the use of military chemicals in NATO countries (referring to the use of chemical weapons against Sergei Skripal and his daughter, Julia Salisbury).
Tight response and need for NATO unity
NATO experts recommend two different approaches for Russia: resolutely responding to threats on their part and encouraging attempts to reduce tensions if Moscow inadvertently takes them.
The report’s authors also pointed to Russia’s “hybrid threats,” including information space and cyberattacks. NATO is invited to hold more frequent meetings of politicians, military representatives, experts and public figures on these issues.
The experts emphasized the importance of internal NATO strength in these changing geopolitical conditions. “NATO’s critical political unity on key issues is due solely to the scale of emerging threats, especially in the face of the simultaneous geopolitical and ideological challenge from Russia and China,” the report’s authors write.
In late 2020, an expert panel released a NATO report that identified Russia as one of NATO’s top military threats until at least 2030. “According to economic and social data, Russia is a declining state of power, but it has demonstrated its ability to participate in territorial aggressions, “said a group of experts led by former German Defense Minister Thomas de Maizier and former US Secretary of State Wess Mitchell. .
Warnig, 65, doesn’t like publicity. When asked how often he meets with Putin, the latter’s friend and former Stasi agent replied that the Russian president did not have a mobile phone, but added: “If I need to see it, we will arrange it.”
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