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Under US law, Joe Biden’s administration will have to impose new sanctions in three months. In a similar situation in 2019, D. Trump chose the weakest restrictions that were presented to him. There is no guarantee that the United States will do the same now. Especially if, in the meantime, the Americans are finally convinced of Russia’s ties to the hackers’ attack late last year.
The sanctions essentially replicate those already announced in 2018.
Part of the sanctions package pertains to individuals and institutions that, according to the Biden administration, are responsible for the poisoning and subsequent prosecution of Navaln. All of them have been on the US sanctions lists to this day. The new entity is the 27th Scientific Center of the Russian Ministry of Defense. This is a lab that even has a Chemical Weapons Insurance Organization accreditation for chemical weapons research.
Most of the sanctions simply repeat those already imposed in 2018 by the administration of the former US president. These sanctions are based on the Chemical and Biological Weapons Law, adopted in 1991, which provides for sanctions against countries that violate international law and use chemical or biological weapons.
It clearly establishes the sanctions that the United States must take against such a state. “Ban on trade in US arms or parts for Russia”, “Ban on financing of all Russian military industrial complexes”, “Ban on any non-humanitarian US aid to Russia”, “Ban on any US government institution that provides credit to Russia “,” Prohibition of US dual-use production on export (or re-export through third countries) of products. “
The law states that the administration can grant exemptions to individual citizens of a sanctioned country if it is relevant to the United States itself. D. Trump exercised this right in 2018 and compiled a very extensive list that was not affected by the sanctions: everything related to cooperation with Russia in space was not included, non-military Russian companies retained the right to receive goods or dual-use technology. From United States. The supply ban applied only to a specific list of “military recipients”. Exports of spare parts for goods or technology already sold were allowed.
The Biden administration, by repeating essentially the same sanctions from 2018 (only this time for the use of a chemical weapon against Navalna), has significantly shortened the list of exceptions. The area of cooperation in space is left open, but even here it is limited to existing international agreements and their implementation. Cooperation in space with private Russian companies will end after a “transition period” of six months.
Russian companies, even those not just related to the military, will no longer be able to purchase dual-use goods and technology, Meduza reports.
The supply of spare parts for previously purchased equipment (except for civil aviation) is also canceled.
It is true that Russia has already faced sanctions of a similar nature (for example, in the case of the annexation of Crimea in 2014) and the state, its functioning, will not be significantly affected. In 2014, for example, many government programs were affected, from the development of the MS-21 aircraft to new military and commercial satellites.
The Russian private sector is also unlikely to suffer from these sanctions for the simple reason that many have had trouble acquiring technology or goods in the past. Due to the various sanctions that already exist, the trade has effectively ceased for at least a year.
Does this mean that the sanctions against Russia are not terrible?
Despite the fact that a formal sanctions package has now been chosen, Biden’s determination to toughen sanctions policy could be costly for Russia. The point is that the current sanctions actually inevitably mean much tougher sanctions in the near future.
The same 1991 Law on the Use of Chemical Weapons makes it clear that if a state that has already been sanctioned for the use of chemical or biological weapons is “not remedied” (there will be no guarantee that such weapons will never be used again in future, etc.), will be subject to more severe penalties.
According to the law, three months later new sanctions will be imposed for the poisoning of Navaln. D. Trump had to do the same in the case of the Skripaliai poisoning (admittedly, it was considerably delayed and introduced the second package of sanctions only a year later, in August 2019).
The law makes it clear that the president must choose between six sanction points and choose at least three of them. In 2019, Trump chose the most moderate option possible: The United States pledged to prevent Russia from obtaining credit from the IMF and the World Bank, expanded its lists of prohibited exports, and prohibited American banks and other financial organizations from buying newly-denominated Russian currency bonds. issued.
All of this did not have a strong impact on Russia’s economy and finances: little left American companies the right to buy bonds from the Russian federal debt. Then-Democratic opponents of Trump tried to pass a “sanctions from hell” law in Congress that would prohibit US banks from buying Russian debt bonds. However, in 2020, an intermediate option was taken: only a temporary ban on acquisitions and only those newly issued bonds. Democrat Biden’s administration is likely to return to this issue.
Sanctions on Russia’s debt could have a devastating effect on the country’s economy. This financial operation covers the budget deficit caused by the crisis caused by the coronavirus. We are talking about large sums here: the goal of the Russian Ministry of Finance in the first quarter of 2021 is to distribute debt bonds for a trillion rubles. 20-25 percent. Russian ruble debts are traditionally bought by foreigners, including American banks, Meduza writes.
Russia is also threatened by a massive withdrawal of market participants from “ruble assets”. This was already the case in 2018-2019, when sanctions were expected. The ruble then fell sharply despite relatively high oil prices.
Other sanctions are also on the way
Not only that, the United States may not even wait those three months. Americans are still unable to cope with the audacious attack by programmers that unfolded in December last year. If Russia is now believed to be in favor, sanctions could come much earlier.
State Department spokesman Ned Price, who spoke to Voice of America, confirmed that new sanctions could be announced starting in May for Nord Stream 2 contractors and companies working on the project.
“Washington is well aware of the threat posed by Russia,” he explained, referring to the country’s desire to influence countries that are far from its borders.
On March 5, Bloomberg sources confirmed that the United States and the United Kingdom are preparing additional sanctions against Russia for the use of chemical weapons.
The parties envisage various packages of sanctions, including sanctions on Russian oligarchs or measures targeting Russian debt bonds. According to sources, sanctions will be imposed if the Russian authorities continue to obstruct the investigation into the case of the poisoning of politician A. Navaln.
Warnig, 65, doesn’t like publicity. When asked how often he meets with Putin, the latter’s friend and former Stasi agent replied that the Russian president did not have a mobile phone, but added: “If I need to see it, we will arrange it.”
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