Lukashenko did not expect such an electoral campaign: the clouds of repression are already accumulating

Contrary to what the president expected, this time some high-profile candidates even emerged, and protesters dissatisfied with the government took to the streets more than two months before the elections.

Unexpected by such a course of events, Lukashenko took action: He fired the government of Prime Minister economist Sergei Rumas and replaced him with the representative of power structures Roman Golovchenko.

There will be no Maidan, and a dictator who has shot hundreds is one example.

Lukashenko has already threatened demonstrations not worth expecting from Maidan, citing Islam Karimov as an example, who ordered the shooting of around 1,000 protesters during the uprising in the country in 2005.

“… we forgot how former President Karimov repressed the uprising in Andijan, shooting thousands of people. They all condemned him, and when he died, he knelt down, cried and cried on his knees. We have not experienced this, so we do not want to understand it. , at least some. “And how to understand each other,” said Alexander Lukashenko on June 4, introducing the new members of the Cabinet of Ministers and addressing the issue of the presidential election campaign.

Vytis Jurkonis, a professor at the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science and a close observer of the situation in Belarus, says such maneuvers reveal several things before the upcoming elections. “There are several versions. The situation as always, looking at many years of practice. Change the different ministers or people in common positions so that they do not gain too much power in a particular institution. The next point, perhaps with a greater focus on the upcoming elections, is that despite the fact that the biggest challenges and problems in Belarus arise from an economic perspective, the person named is linked to power structures. And this is said to be a man seeking sufficiently familiar power structures from a person’s family environment, also related to Lukashenko’s son. In principle, there is also a version that is being prepared for the elections, possible tensions. In any case, this is not completely unusual in the Belarusian regime, “the expert told Delfi.

Laurynas Jonavičius, another VU TSPMI professor and a political scientist studying the post-Soviet space, emphasized that the change in government at the time showed A. Lukashenko’s confusion and ignorance about what to do. “In my opinion, it is not so much about knowing what to do and at the same time wanting to demonstrate that something is being done, that you are in control of the situation and that something is happening.” There’s not much logic to that, “said L. Jonavičius.

“It is perhaps conceivable that, instead of being a sufficiently liberal prime minister and now coming from security structures involving the security forces, such an attempt to tighten control in the event of any major unrest in the previous period or during the elections themselves. And really, that’s a big distraction for me here. Maybe not distraction, but fear, seeing that something needs to be done, but not really knowing what. In other words, the government’s layoff was announced in the past was not a complete surprise, there was talk, “said the interlocutor.

Unexpected banished

The outrage of power has been caused by several unexpectedly successful and popular candidates to challenge the country’s long-standing leader. One of them is Viktor Babarika, the head of Belgazprombank, one of the country’s largest banks, which has sufficient financial resources and is no stranger to the Belarusian government. Diplomat Valerijus Cepkalas became another unexpected candidate from the authorities.

But so far Sergei Tichanovsky has caused perhaps the most confusion in Lukashenko’s carefully crafted plan. This activist, who has a large circle of followers on social media, received great support, and Lukashenko, who escaped this, ordered that he not be allowed to collect signatures for his candidacy. He was later accused of participating in an unauthorized opposition picket in Grodno. However, such a pullback sparked great anger among ordinary Belarusians, and the election campaigns of S. Tikhanyovsky’s firms turned into anti-government protests.

“Those protests are already happening and it can be said that they are early enough. Here is the second version. Instead of appointing someone who can respond to economic problems, designate one who is closest to the power structures and their environment. And that does not seem surprising in that pre-electoral context, the ongoing protests. There are already fears in the ranks of international observers that the probability of repression is high enough. And these signs are already visible. There are people arrested and journalists detained. And there have been statements so harsh that there will be no Maidan in Belarus. And remember several cases in neighboring countries where blood was spilled from people. This shows that the Belarusian government is going through a difficult and quite tense period, “said V. Jurkonis.

The protests intimidated the country’s president, as he had failed, since the new coronavirus pandemic had contributed significantly to the deterioration of the situation in the country. “Well, here are some things, from Lukashenko’s point of view it is not good. The COVID-19 virus is not working very well, so to speak, an economic situation that is also getting worse and here this time to present itself as host Also, people get tired largely due to their inability to solve serious problems and try to demonstrate that something must be done differently. And because of the protests themselves, it is still difficult to say whether they are major protests or whether this is a critical mass of people who are determined to protest to the end, determined to stand firm to the end. Here you should wait a little more than weeks or months. As the elections approach, it will be clear whether Lukashenko will get rid of the candidates who are popular enough now and how they will get rid of them, “said L. Jonavičius.

Will try not to touch the ballot

Lukashenko did not hesitate to express his discontent when he accused the activists of preparing attacks against the government. Lukashenko advised people in Belarus to “watch those long lines in fewer instagram channels and telegrams.” According to the president, people who have been queuing for two weeks to help sign up to nominate the desired “non-Lukashenko” presidential candidate are being specially recruited. Furthermore, according to him, the process resembles a kind of vicious circle. “Well, what, he signed, and then he stops at the end of the line again, he signed again … They are transported by cars. They signed, left, got in the car, circled the district and stood in line again. … “Lukashenko explained to residents last week.

“This election campaign started just three weeks ago, but we can already see today that not all candidates will be civilized in this way.” All around us, we see violations of laws, ethical standards, insults and attacks against the government, ”said the president in a meeting with representatives of the power structures in Minsk.

The President did not shy away from naming the entire branch of crisis that he believed affected the country. “He seemed to be speaking frankly enough in the past few days when he said he would not give power to anyone, ‘they.’ That the Maidan will not. When he called the chief of security structures and it was demonstrated quite demonstratively. This indicates that the situation is not comfortable. Probably not even common compared to previous elections. Those tensions really are. And Lukashenko has publicly stated that the variety of problems is excellent. That he even see some pandemics, both an economic and a related pandemic with health and the political context as a whole, it is a choice, an effort to spread misinformation. It is a political, economic and informational threat, yet it hints from time to time about foreign players who are allegedly trying to carry out their role in these things here. That’s right, the tension feels more than usual, “said V. Jurkonis.

Overcoming demonstrations is easier

However, the biggest problem for Lukashenko so far remains that those “they” who want to challenge his government and who are allegedly preparing an attack on the government do not intend to abandon their hands. If the Belarusian regime knows how to deal with simple protests, it will not be so easy to overcome that personalized resistance.

“Tichanovsky is the one who mobilizes that voice of protest. That protest score is audible enough and has been accumulating for years. It is not just a phenomenon from last year. This is largely due to the pins on their wheels and we see those protests. This is a man who has a fairly large audience on YouTube and in the regions, particularly attractive to the strata that once brought the current president to power. And he may seem like a dangerous enough person not to influence him enough boat of voices of protest, ”said V. Jurkonis.

The fact that this election campaign is different also means that the new candidates seeking to challenge Lukashenko are not members of the traditional opposition. “Curiously, they are not the people of that opposition as we understand it. There are semi-systemic. Tikhonovsky is like from one side, a new generation character. They all go against Lukashenko, but they have nothing to do with that traditional opposition that speaks of pro-western democratic Belarus. They are more neutral actors and such a real alternative to Lukashenko, and have no connection to the opposition, which has been discredited in its relations with the West. Another problem is that they are going against Lukashenko so far, but it is not clear what they are targeting. Going here is the big question. And whatever their policy, how Russia itself would react to them, the people of Belarus itself are in great uncertainty. And what is your address? No one can say yet, ”said L. Jonavičius.

Lukashenko has already taken action against other candidates. V. Babariko Bank has already received a visit from the power structures. Officials of the Belarusian State Control Committee searched the commercial bank Belgazprombank on Thursday.

The State Audit Office has reported that searches are being conducted in the course of a criminal case of tax evasion and money laundering. “The suspects in this case are representatives of commercial structures, as well as former employees of the banking system,” the service said in a press release.

The fact that both Babarik and Cepkal are seriously concerned about Lukashenko is demonstrated by the fact that they both come from the old nomenclature. “They both have their own advantages and their own audience. Cepkalas due to the established high-tech park, which works quite well. Babariko for his role in the banking sector, in general for his optimistic speech. And the fact that it brought that group of initiatives together large enough could not have made an impression. It seems one of those who can collect 100 thousand. The firms, these three unusual candidates, compared to previous elections, raise conspiracy theories and some anxiety about how they should be treated here. If the Belarusian regime knows clearly enough how to deal with protests, it is a long-term experience of how to dispel them and does not cause any great feeling, “said V. Jurkonis.

“How will they react to possible problems with Cepkal or Babarik? I think they are still trying to analyze and test. They have sufficient administrative means to prevent these people from becoming candidates, not counting some of the signatures collected, etc. It is very likely that Babariko is already only a candidate for the candidates. It would be a fairly conservative opinion that the Belarusian regime is not weak, although there are some challenges, the probability of change during the elections is quite low. But it is necessary to follow it, because it shows what can be expected in the future, “said the interlocutor.

This situation is being closely monitored by neighboring Russia, which has been trying to put pressure on Lukashenko on the political and energy front for some time. So far, experts agree that Russia will wait patiently for the situation to come to an end, and it is difficult to predict how things will go.