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“This situation does not suggest that we can feel safe if we lift the restrictions. If there is not enough data from which we can draw conclusions, what to expect if one or the other ban is lifted, let’s take a look at other countries,” said P. Gradeckas, who He previously advised then Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis on health issues Acting Deputy Director of the Marijampolė Primary Health Care Center.
Speaking of the context, the specialist admitted that he is not surprised that the situation is being communicated to the Department of Statistics, which is a depoliticized tool.
“I have been involved in politics and I have seen political technology, (…) it is convenient enough for political decision makers. The coalition government, which came to power, said that “we will do it a little differently than we did before and we will rely on best practices.”
And one of the best practices in foreign countries is that politicians from normal Scandinavian countries and Western Europe communicate when necessary, but are generally not very inclined to communicate in difficult situations where the situation can change, ”said P. Gradeckas.
The specialist also recalled the example of how much mush can cause the careless demonstration of politicians in such situations.
“There was a Spanish cucumber scandal. A lower-level politician published information that Spanish cucumbers cause a certain disease. That information was denied two weeks later, but in a couple of months there was a rather serious crisis in relations between the Kingdom of Spain and the German federal governments.
Spanish horticulturists are among the main exporters to Germany. As a result of this policy, exports have stagnated. It was the year 2011. Normal politicians avoid doing it. I believe (and with us) that they have been trying to put out fires all week (after it was announced last Monday that the third wave of coronavirus was starting), “Gradeck said.
The specialist pointed out that the Department of Statistics has implemented a “good data management platform”, which allows monitoring the data in various sections.
But as colleagues say, the problem is the interpretation of that data. It’s such a slippery cliff that you can slide down very easily, “Gradeck said.
The situation has changed
The specialist said that in the current situation, he is concerned about the renewed increase in the proportion of positive tests of all those who take the test.
“The prime minister said that ‘we are expanding the scope of the preventive investigation of all those who are being examined.’ (…) When preventive tests are carried out (if the situation improves), there should be more clean samples than those containing genetic material. And the trend is the opposite, that the number of positive samples in the total number of samples tends to increase. This means that the prevalence is increasing, “Gradeck explained.
The epidemiologist disagrees with Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė’s assessment that morbidity is stagnant.
“Countries can get stuck with TB, managing HIV, but the disease is spreading too fast in society for us to have some kind of lockdown. (…) I hope politicians understand.
I have always tried to say that to the Prime Minister, and I hope that the current Prime Minister’s assistants will tell her every day: in infectious diseases (…) you are already living in the past today. Something has already happened and you will see it in a week or two. Therefore modeling is also a very thankless thing. Maybe not because of the masks, and not because we open beauty salons, maybe something else happened in society, I can’t say that. “Scientists, we look back instead of forward,” Gradeck said.
The second area of concern to which the expert drew attention was the international context.
“The Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Portugal, the example of Ireland, which is already worn out. Ireland was seen as an example of why we don’t need to be completely open. Because they got lost between the scenarios like between two trees: closed, open, closed, open, there were also genetic mutations in the virus, ”said P. Gradeckas.
He stressed the importance of testing
The specialist highlighted the importance of the tests in the interview.
“We did not see any jump in new cases as trial volumes were reduced. Now they have increased as responsibilities and recommendations have emerged. I would like the recommendations to be met at least 50 percent. So people don’t look at it with their fingers. I think not only of ordinary citizens, but also of companies and employers, regardless of the size of the companies they have, ”said P. Gradeckas.
The epidemiologist was not very optimistic that vaccination would help to get out of the situation quickly.
And not because it could be replaced by a particularly large increase in vaccine volumes. We have doubts about one vaccine that translate into doubts about other vaccines. We have isolated cases where positive cases are registered among vaccinated people. This could decrease people’s confidence in the vaccine, “Gradeck said.
The specialist said he wanted to emphasize the importance of awareness.
“I won’t be anything unique, but dying on the last day of the war is probably one of the most ironic things. Even here, before the warm period begins (not because the virus responds to hot weather, but because the whole future is changing, morbidity should decrease) it is essential for us as a society to understand whether an accessible healthcare system is important to us. . That is, if something happens to your son, mother, father, who are older, they will receive help, ”said P. Gradeckas.
According to the epidemiologist, it does not take much specialized knowledge to understand that this disease can be serious.
“Most of it is serious, but it can be serious. Who wants to take risks? (…) There have been governments that hoped that perhaps herd immunity would develop earlier, and perhaps the virus, because it would move in the other direction, it would disappear naturally. So far this has not happened. The only realistic scenario left to reduce morbidity is vaccination.
There is no other scenario. The acquired immunity scenario failed. The Scandinavian countries that tried abandoned those ideas. The countries that have done it successfully do so because they are austerity measures. And I can’t blame them. A country like New Zealand had a very strict immigration policy, a very strict border control and in some cases managed to close cities, ”Gradeck said.
The essential objective must not be lost
According to the specialist, in the current situation it is clear that we are stagnant, why this is the case is still not entirely clear.
“But we know that the most important goal is to achieve herd immunity, perhaps without establishing a very precise term, be it Mindauginė or Vytautinės. Until then, we have certain tasks.
The Minister communicates that these are different scenarios. But what if you get stuck between stage C and B? Or don’t you know if going from Scenario C to Scenario B will not make it happen like Astra Zeneca’s question, when are vaccines available, but not many older people want to get vaccinated with them? (…) What to do with the identified strains? ”Said Mr. Gradeck.
He did not rule out the possibility that, even before the start of the warm period, the German example of border closure could become a follow-up. Germany closed its borders with the Czech Republic and the Austrian region of Tyrol for fear of spreading the mutated virus.
“Now there are a number of political decisions on epidemiological matters. Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron may want to punish Britain for choosing to have their way. But that moment can become frequent, especially if it is worth it.
So far, I hear noise in the general context about how much we can extend the window between two doses of the vaccine, but so far I hear little information about the extent to which travel restrictions can handle that, ”Gradeck said.
In his opinion, this should be discussed jointly at European level, in the European Council or in similar formats.
“Unity is very important. The rise of the nationalists in 2016 and Trump was a consequence of the lack of European unity. This was illustrated, for example, by the case of the financial crisis in Greece. The lack of unity causes even greater problems. , which must then be resolved by the same societies, ”said P. Gradeckas.
The situation regarding mutations so far raises many questions.
Last week, it was announced that the Kaunas Clinical Laboratory of the Lithuanian Health Sciences University (LSMU) had detected the so-called British strain of coronavirus in eleven samples. It turned out that 6 samples with the British strain of coronavirus “came” from Vilkaviškis, 4 – from Kaunas and 1 – from Marijampolė. A total of 96 samples were examined during the week.
Mr. Gradeck declined to comment on this information. According to him, it raises more questions than answers for the average person.
“Suppose the British strain is causing higher mortality, it is more dangerous for young people, it is more contagious, it is more resistant to prevailing vaccines, it has more health consequences in the future. It is these questions that should be answered normally and communicated, not to say that 11 cases have been identified. It shows nothing.
The question is, are these samples random or has the proportion between regions been maintained? Now it seems that it is spreading through southern Lithuania. And to the average person, it seems that the borders with Poland are open, and that is why the virus is spreading here. But maybe in southern Lithuania, where I work, there are many more things related to migration, maybe there are more people here who had working relationships outside of Lithuania, ”said P. Gradeckas.
According to the specialist, the decision on what to do with it cannot be spontaneous.
“The Germans have answered the questions of this hypothesis. (…) But in decision-making there is no spontaneous” purchase “when you go to the store and think that maybe I will buy this bottle of wine, and it may be that at The next day your head hurts when you decide that “a neighbor buys and I buy.”
You have to understand why you are making that decision, communicate it to the public and say that “we made the decision based on this type of scientific evidence.” Maybe I’m too sure that people tend to listen to arguments, but they do listen. Now we have a lot of communication with older people, because they have to call and be invited to get vaccinated, and they really take the right sources, they have the right arguments, they ask the right questions, ”said P. Gradeckas.
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