Will talking about a third wave of COVID-19 delay the launch of businesses again? | Deal

Earlier, government officials said that the Cabinet of Ministers would consider further relaxation of the quarantine this week, so could they talk about a third wave delay plans to further liberalize businesses in Lithuania?

Some observers criticized Statistics Lithuania’s statement that “it appears that we are initiating the third wave of a pandemic.”

However, Ramunė Kalėdienė, Dean of the Faculty of Public Health at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, says that if it is not the third wave, then the “wave” is definitely visible.

“If we look at the graph, we could call it the third wave,” 15 minutes said the professor. “Management has really changed, the decline in cases has slowed down.”

However, a researcher working for the Government on the Board of Experts added that sooner or later he expected a slight increase in the number of COVID-19 cases.

The Statistics Department said in its report that it concludes that the third wave is due to the steady decline in daily new coronavirus cases and the increasing proportion of positive diagnostic tests.

“This pattern has been going on for a whole week, but now there is no question about it,” the report said.

However, specialists have not yet dramatized the current indicators.

“I would not say that it is a moment of great inflection point”, 15 minutes said another member of the Council of Experts, a professor in the Department of Health Management at LSMU Mindaugas Stankūnas.

Conclusions – in a week?

The Board of Experts is expected to discuss the trend change in COVID-19 statistics on Monday afternoon.

However, this is unlikely to lead to drastic decisions in one direction or the other.

In all countries where quarantine lasts for a long time, people start to tire of restrictions and these fluctuations occur.

“I think that in a week we can say that more clearly,” said M. Stankūnas.

R. Kalėdienė states that in the management of a pandemic, the fluctuations of the curve are inevitable and are not necessarily related to one or another decision to release the quarantine restrictions.

“I still think we don’t really need to panic or get into great anxiety just yet,” said the professor.

“In all the countries where the quarantine is very long, people are beginning to get tired of the restrictions and these fluctuations are happening,” added the public health specialist.

He also suggests waiting a week before drawing any further conclusions.

Expect “zero cases” to be naive

R. Kalėdienė believes that current figures should not stop deliberations on further quarantine releases and allow companies to operate if morbidity statistics are in line with the government approved release strategy.

“We have to learn to live with the virus. It is naive to expect that we will have zero cases, businesses will be closed all the time and our communication and movement will be restricted,” said the professor.

According to her, not only quarantine, but also clear tests, the introduction of preventive tests, the clear and disciplined use of protection measures and the development of vaccination help to control the pandemic.

“When we learn to locate the chimneys very quickly, to turn them off and keep them in place, we will live better. I really believe that we must have a clear plan to return to life with the least possible loss,” said R. Kalėdienė.

However, he said tolerance for the spread of the virus was directly determined by the workload of healthcare institutions: if hospitalization started to increase rapidly again, the quarantine would have to be reinforced again.

There are many waiting in line to receive permission to act.

Andrius Romanovskis, President of the Lithuanian Business Confederation, serving on the Council of Experts 15 minutes He said he did not want to assess whether the third wave of COVID-19 had started in Lithuania.

However, he warned that the quarantine should be both relaxed and stricter so as “not to have a sudden effect.” According to him, this would avoid fluctuations in the number of COVID-19 cases.

Romanovsky also called for clear criteria to be followed when changing quarantine conditions, instead of making decisions “from the roof”, when one or another sector is allowed to open just because it pushes more.

“There is a lot waiting in line to obtain a permit to operate, and every wrong decision or underestimated result will result in the opening of activities that will be allowed to open at the end,” said a trade representative.

Blaming the business ‘wouldn’t be fair’

Experts say it is too early to judge what has led to the jump in COVID-19 cases.

“I found no direct reason at this time,” said Professor M. Stankūnas.

According to him, this is probably not due to the beauty salons and some stores that opened last week.

“An indirect reason could be the recent considerations in the public sphere that quarantine measures are ineffective, unnecessary or redundant. Perhaps it caused people to be skeptical about certain measures and people to start taking them less seriously,” said the expert.

His colleague R. Kalėdienė is also in no rush with conclusions.

“I would not blame small shops or hair salons for what happened. That would not be cool, “he said.

A council of experts attached to the government will meet on Monday at 4 pm

Since then, the government has allowed the provision of beauty services and the opening of stores with independent entrances since Monday of last week. The ski resorts in Lithuania are open from February 2.

All of these businesses were closed on December 16, when the government severely tightened the quarantine in Lithuania due to record numbers of COVID-19.