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The US media announced a few days ago that President Donald Trump had ordered the Pentagon to reduce its troop contingent in Germany by 9.5 thousand. soldiers
Currently, around 34.5 thousand are deployed in Germany. Soldiers Reportedly, it will also be a condition that the number of US troops retained in Germany at any time does not exceed 25,000.
This number, which includes both permanently held and rotating soldiers, would be half the current number. Official Pentagon sources have neither denied nor confirmed this media information.
Soldiers’ routes are unknown.
Giedrius Česnakas, associate professor at General Jonas Zemaitis’ Lithuanian Military Academy, is convinced that we should not be concerned about the withdrawal of the soldiers. The situation is said to be under control, and Lithuania and Poland should engage in pressure groups other than that, and therefore try to bring US troops closer to their borders.
Giedrius garlic. (Photo from Facebook.com)
“The question arises where the retired soldiers from Germany will travel. If they travel to Poland, which requires additional investment from the US and Poland, the deterrence capacity of NATO and the US can be said to be. It would be strengthened, since they would be closer to a possible adversary, if we consider the possible Russian invasion.
However, if these troops were to be sent back to the United States or other regions of the world, for example in Southeast Asia, NATO forces in Europe would weaken. There are those who believe that this withdrawal will encourage Germany to spend more money on defense, but it is doubtful. Germany has approved an increase in spending until 2024, and next year’s elections, and plans may change. Therefore, the decision is not unequivocal, “said the professor at the Military Academy.
According to him, the United States Congress and the Secretary of Defense may also be involved in the procedures for the withdrawal of US troops. Their positions may be important in preventing the President from making unilateral decisions. It has already been the case that the United States Congress is taking a firm stance on withdrawing troops from one region or another.
The specialist is also convinced that the good relations between EE. USA And Poland would possibly encourage D. Trump to transfer part of his troops to this neighbor from Lithuania. According to G. Česnakas, this would be a strengthening of positions when considering the defense of the Baltic States. Deterrence capabilities in the most vulnerable part of NATO would be strengthened.
Until now, there is no reason to worry, the professor at the Military Academy is convinced, the most important thing now is to find out where the soldiers will go.
“Poland and the Baltic states may participate in some pressure groups in Washington, due to the withdrawal of troops from Germany. It is possible to request their transfer to Poland or even a small part of the contingent in the Baltic States,” G. argued. Česnakas.
Can Russia open its hands?
However, Margarita Šešelgytė, director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Science, was not so optimistic, according to her, the relocation of soldiers in an unstable world only adds even more instability and sends an ambiguous message to Russia.
“It just caught our eye then. Of course, one should look first at the US president’s approach to foreign policy. If you [D. Trumpo], does not criticize, befriends him and buys from the USA. It is also possible to deploy troops in the US, but here traditional agreements and alliances seem worthless.
Another important detail is that the troops that were in Germany were included in the NATO military balance, and we viewed security policy through the prism of balance. So now those soldiers will be attracted, and whether they will be deployed to Poland, it is not known, if so, it is not clear when this will happen, ”said M. Šešelgytė.
Margaret Šešelgytė
According to her, insecurity may begin to persist in the region, which is dangerous because the deterrence policy is based on psychology, the news that Russia is afraid to attack because it will not receive a response. What message is now being transmitted to Russia? Asked the political scientist.
“I am afraid that Russia may think that under such conditions of uncertainty, you can open your hands,” said M. Šešelgytė.
He stressed that the calm reaction of the Lithuanian authorities to the news about the withdrawal of the troops is a “diplomatic problem” and that the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and National Defense of Lithuania cannot show their discontent with the policy of the United States on this theme.
Calm and predictable?
It is true that the Lithuanian authorities do not overestimate the fact of the partial withdrawal of troops from Germany, and both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs assured the media that the presence of the United States in the region is growing and that troop movements in Europe are common and unsurprising.
The reduction of troops in Germany, a politician is convinced, should not affect the United States’ military commitments to Europe or the Baltic states.
Earlier in the week, Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius emphasized to the LRT that it is important not to “dramatize” the US decision, as the presence of Americans in the region is growing. The Minister said that Lithuania would appreciate the deployment of the withdrawn troops from Germany to Poland. Although there is no specific information on where the US troops will be deployed.
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawieckis also said that US troops in Poland would be a very positive phenomenon. Poland intends to spend 2.1 percent on defense this year. of its GDP, which is a higher percentage than in Germany.
He was handcuffed last summer for the additional transfer of US troops from Germany to Poland, but a permanent US base in the country has yet to wait.
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