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“The data is really crucial for making decisions and checking how well it is being implemented,” the Health Minister said Thursday in a presentation of the new statistics to the public.
A.Dulkys admitted that the total reported number of patients in e-health was never exact.
“This indicator has never been used to make decisions about quarantine changes,” he emphasized.
The Minister recalled that the changes will be made taking into account other numbers: the number of new cases per 100 thousand. population in 14 days and the number of positive tests in 7 days.
A map of Lithuania is published on the Statistics Lithuania website, in which the municipalities are colored according to these indicators. According to this, it is possible to compare municipalities with each other.
According to the minister, there is a decrease in the number of people who are going to be tested for the coronavirus disease, which is why he encouraged to go to preventive tests for people who plan to resume their activities from Monday.
What will change in the death statistics?
The Department of Statistics released the following figures Thursday: 3,013 people with a primary diagnosis of COVID-19 died throughout the period.
The number of deaths with COVID-19 as an intermediate cause is 5,192 and the number of deaths with a positive diagnostic test of less than four weeks is 5,840.
As many people died directly from the COVID-19 disease, almost a second died of those who were diagnosed with the disease, which later manifested itself in some other phenomenon and was not accurately recorded.
When asked if we could now say that we had seen the true cost of the coronavirus pandemic, Minister A. Dulkys said: “Yes, it was our change in methodology that expanded the concept of death. Yes, it can be concluded from that method that, as many people died directly from COVID-19, almost the same number died from a disease that was subsequently diagnosed and not accurately recorded. “
The head of the Lithuanian Department of Statistics, Jūratė Petrauskienė, said on Thursday that from now on three death indicators will be published: when the main cause of death is COVID-19 disease, when not the main cause but one of the causes is this disease, everyone who was diagnosed with COVID-19 and died within 28 days.
If a person has been diagnosed with COVID-19 and has died within 28 days of this diagnosis, this death will be classified as a coronavirus death.
According to J.Bačelis, data analyst at the Department of Statistics, there are power exceptions for cases like violent deaths and the like.
8.5 percent may have acquired immunity. people
J.Bačelis announced Thursday that 8.5 percent may have acquired immunity in Lithuania. people.
According to J.Petrauskienė, the number was obtained by methodological calculations to estimate how many people in Lithuania currently have immunity, that is, those who are sick, have antibodies and have been vaccinated.
It is estimated that a total of 236.4 thousand people in Lithuania may have immunity. persons.
“I would like to explain the statistical and declared figures. During the audit, there were cases where, for example, a person has recovered, but there is no such record in e-health, therefore, after applying certain logical rules, we have provided statistical numbers of patients and those who have recovered. ”J. Petrauskienė also said.
What will change in the presentation of statistics?
Statistics on the COVID-19 pandemic will be compiled from the main data source, the eHealth system. According to the report, the previous day’s operational report will be supplemented with even more detailed statistics, the data is presented in several sections. This will allow the public to better understand the current situation in the country and compare it with other states.
According to the report, publishing data from the main source will avoid discrepancies between the actual event and the published data and will ensure the quality of the data. The indicators are calculated according to a publication procedure agreed with other institutions, based on the decisions of the Operations Manual and taking into account the recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO) and experts.
The main changes in the daily COVID-19 operational statistics report are:
- From now on, there will be four colored municipal zones (map), according to the indicators of the Gradual Quarantine Regime Change Plan approved by the Government: 1) the number of new cases in 14 days. per 100 thousand. population 2) the proportion of positive diagnostic tests of all tests performed within 7 days. The report also includes the acceleration of the pandemic, showing how the number (speed) of new confirmed cases per day is changing (increasing or decreasing and how intensely).
- The total number of potentially immune individuals is included, calculated as the sum of vaccinated and relapsed individuals.
- The number of patients was divided into 1) the declared number of patients and 2) the statistical number of patients.
A declared patient is a person for whom a case of illness has been confirmed, but the illness card has not yet been closed, the end of the illness has not been confirmed by a doctor. A statistical patient is a person for whom disease has been confirmed in the last 28 days.
This last indicator may be more accurate to assess the morbidity of the population, since among the reported cases, there may be cases in which a person is no longer active in the active form of COVID-19, but the family doctor has not confirmed the end. of the disease for various reasons. For example, according to the latest data, the statistical number of patients is 11,096 and the number declared in eHealth is 62,586. The statistical number is lower precisely because they are recognized as recovered at 28 days, even if there is no record of recovery in eHealth. It should be noted that there are patients for a longer period of time, but they do not statistically have a significant impact.
- Detailed statistics of laboratory tests (number of tests and positive responses) using the following types of tests: PCR (molecular diagnostic test that detects viral genetic material), antigen test (detection of viral proteins), serological antibody test (blood ) (which detects established immunity to the virus).
- Deaths related to COVID-19 are presented according to three different definitions: two according to the medical death certificate (narrower and broader definition) and one according to the positive diagnostic test and the date of death of the individual . The first indicator shows the number of deaths on the death certificate for which doctors identified COVID-19 as the leading cause of death. The second indicator also includes other deaths in which doctors reported that the primary, immediate and intermediate cause of death or other major pathological condition was COVID-19 disease or coronavirus. The third indicator allows a more comprehensive assessment of the aspect of death, as recommended by the WHO, it covers almost all cases in which a person has died with a positive response to the diagnostic test of no more than four weeks. Detailed descriptions and exceptions to the calculation of the indicators will be provided along with the indicators themselves. According to the latest data, the total number of deaths from COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic is 3,013, the number of deaths with COVID-19 as an intermediate cause is 5,192, and the number of deaths with a positive diagnostic response is less than four weeks, number – 5 840. Note that external causes of death are not included.
- The total number of people in isolation, isolated due to high-risk exposure and arrivals from affected countries during the previous day is included.
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