The public is still looking for an answer to the question of what they hate the most: the quarantine or the Karbauskis

Slow opposition in the opposition, the lack of prominent party leaders, and a fragile organizational structure have highlighted these peasant problems. Delphi political scientists interviewed.

Lack of opposition activity: the situation is favorable to the rulers

As Bernaras Ivanovas, a political scientist at the Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), commented on the portal, when they began to work in the opposition, the peasants chose exactly the same rhetoric as the politicians who worked in the opposition before them.

“They have the same plate, I’m talking about the company that said how scary quarantine is.” Now these are the same plate, they probably found it somewhere in the locker room and rebuilt it because it’s the same. It is not funny at all, because it is absolutely the same, the same speeches, only there is a nuance: then the opposition did not make such an absurd decision, and the Karbauskis company did. They organized politics in the spring, they closed politics, they closed Lithuania for three months, ”said a political scientist from VMU.

Furthermore, he said, the activities of the peasants in the opposition still seem slow, and the Social Democrats, who are going through an internal crisis, do not help the overall strength of the opposition’s image.

“On the other hand, there are also nightmares: beavers. Here like Scilly and Charibde, the wolf and the bear, what is worse? – Everything is worse. With the Social Democrats, it seems to me that there is also a tragedy in the opposition. What What better way to get there than to be in power? Most importantly, it wasn’t built by conservatives, they didn’t nail it. “The one party, the peasants, is distracted by the same political cobwebs, and the Social Democrats are mired in confusion, “Ivanov said.

Professor Lauras Bielinis, another political scientist and professor at Vytautas Magnus University, agreed that the activities of the LVŽS still do not appear to be active in the opposition. He described peasant criticism of the current government as episodic.

“So far, they are obviously trying to criticize the rulers, to show their mistakes, but their criticism and general approach to the current situation, as I would call it, is episodic, random and not systematically invented. The peasants seek to criticize, but they do not have a clear position of their own, and that is why they can only cling to mistakes, but not show or demonstrate to the public their constructive position and path in solving the problems they notice, ”said L. Bielinis.

According to him, few other relevant issues remain during the pandemic, but here, the professor noted, there is a struggle for positions not only between the ruler and the opposition, but also within the ruling majority itself.

“Other positions are also episodic: the question of the appointment of high-ranking officials, the problem of the Constitutional Court, diplomats. The peasants do not have a clear position and strategy on these issues to criticize them in principle, but they make public the errors that they warn, ”emphasized L. Bielinis.

Experts assess the ability of peasants to take advantage of the social democratic crisis differently

When asked if the peasants have the opportunity to increase the capital of their political popularity by taking advantage of the crisis of the Social Democrats, the opinions of the experts differ.

According to Ivanov, the peasants do not have a good organizational structure to strengthen as a party.

“No. It is possible to load political capital, as in Western Europe, with massive parties, which have support in the regions, with administrative support, with a group of people, who have what is behind, not a single leader. Karbauskis is practically a party of a leader with a guest star: Skvernelis, who also doesn’t know what to do for him lately, ”said a political scientist from VMU.

According to him, the success of LVŽS in 2016. The circumstances that put the party “on the wave” also determined a lot, for example, the conflictive conversation of the then Minister of the Interior, Saulius Skvernelis, with the president of the Seimas Loreta Graužinienė, who had a negative image, when Igor Molotkov escaped. from a police car with a machine gun.

“These are things that will not go far and that these parties do not usually win elections a second time in both Lithuania and Europe. We can look at the context of the generally populist party and see that populist forces are weakening everywhere. Poland has its own. their own nuances, but in general it is a regularity that they are usually unable to reincarnate and become something more than they were. The ambitions of a leader do not allow finding alternative people in the party and working productively in the sense of the future of their own party, ”explained B. Ivanov.

Mr. Bielinis, meanwhile, took a different view. According to the professor, the peasants can benefit from the crisis of the Social Democrats.

“We must not think that the green farmers are exhausted. They have a very high potential both in the Seimas; we see that they are one of the largest factions and in the regions they have a fulcrum. In fact, they can take themselves very seriously and mobilize around them all those who are in the opposition, who are not in power, but who require systemic activities, ”said Vytautas Magnus University political scientist.

He also explained that the LVŽS, however, is not enough to simply have branches in the regions; According to L. Bielinis, it is necessary to work a lot with them.

“The fact that they have that point of support does not mean that the structures of their party, the common people, are active and organized in the interests of the party. Most of the people who declare themselves peasant-partisans or support them are very passive. The centers that are located in the regions must now mobilize the ordinary members of the party for specific work in solving the problems that are very relevant in that region ”, said L. Bielinis.

Otherwise, the political scientist also stressed, the party could be in danger.

“If this is not the case, the party will not happen, we will have a certain network of centers with one, two or three more active people, but in reality there will be no party,” said the professor, but noted that LVŽS can improve its position on this topic in the future. R. Karbauskis, the outgoing president of the Seimas, resigned, promising to strengthen the regional branches of the party.

It is necessary to improve the communication of leaders

Ivanov noted that the behavior of the commentators monitoring the policy has now changed, during the second quarantine. This, he says, can be seen by analyzing the comments below the quarantine texts and after the articles criticizing the current government by peasant leaders.

“People in general clearly don’t like quarantine. If we see it in spring, it was a quarantine belief that we will soon die, how dare you criticize, and now it’s the other way around. However, after the articles where there is a criticism of Karbauskis, Skvernelis or Veryga, the situation is different. Yes, people do not want quarantine, but they point the finger at the fact that they themselves (peasants – aut.p.) did the same and even more terrible. ( …) People don’t want to be quarantined, but they don’t want to be next to Karbauskis and Veryga, because they understood what is what, it seems to me ”, pointed out B. Ivanov.

For his part, L. Bielinis also argued that the party faces a lack of leaders.

“We already noticed when they were in power that there are very few well-communicated politicians in this party, people who can communicate freely and energetically with the public, the media, the opponents. In this way, in this party, with two or three More serious communicators, it is actually much more difficult to organize some kind of political action. During this period, they will still need to receive brilliant personalities who can communicate effectively on their own, “emphasized L. Bielinis.

What are the possible prospects?

Ivanov was skeptical of the LVS’s prospects for becoming a large and politically purified party. According to him, R. Karbauskis manages political organization like big business.

“The functioning of corporations and parties are completely different things. The problem in corporate policy is that parties behave like corporations: no discussion, no alternatives, no subordination. You need other solutions and more trust; these bosses never trust each other. nobody and they do everything by themselves. I don’t think they are capable of transforming themselves and being political, “said the political scientist.

According to B. Ivanov, a change of leader would not help the party either.

“It should be understood that Svernell, as the leader of the party, has not yet recommended himself and has become that leader, having north possibilities. He had the opportunity to take over the party when it came to Francisco, there were suggestions, but he stayed on the side of Karbauskis and in one way or another without Karbauskis this party would not be, ”said the political scientist of the University Vytautas Magnus.

Meanwhile, L. Bielinis stated that the LVŽS has potential, but it needs to strengthen the party structure and mobilize the people.

“It will be much more difficult for this party to win the elections now and more. They have to seek new paths and they have to strengthen the political organization, there is no other way. Unless the rulers somehow make many fundamental mistakes that will disconnect society. But so far we don’t see such things, ”added Professor L. Bielinis.