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Using methods similar to those used by intelligence agencies, the research team that conducted the study analyzed photos from commercial satellites and “observed from 2019 onward. Between late summer and late fall, the dramatic increase in car traffic to the five largest hospitals in Wuhan. ” This information was provided by Dr. Har. John Brownstein, posted by abcnews.go.com.
The professor, who worked with ABC News and previously, said the increase in traffic also “coincided” with the increase in Internet queries in China: “certain symptoms were looked for and then attributed to the new coronavirus.”
Although dr. Brownstein acknowledged that the evidence was circumstantial and said the study had provided important new data on the mysterious origins of COVID-19.
“Something was going on there in October,” said Dr. J. Brownstein, Director of Innovation, Boston Children’s Hospital and Director of the Computational Epidemiology Laboratory at that hospital. “Obviously, some social unrest came long before the new coronavirus pandemic officially began.”
The coronavirus that emerged in China at the end of last year spread worldwide. According to Johns Hopkins University, COVID-19 has infected nearly 7 million people. people and the number of victims exceeds 400 thousand. The virus is believed to have been transmitted to humans by an as yet undetected animal species that was not significantly affected. However, widespread among humans, the new coronavirus has become the worst natural killer since the Spanish flu pandemic that devastated the world a hundred years ago.
Although Chinese officials only officially notified the World Health Organization (WHO) of the spread of a new respiratory pathogen in Wuhan on December 31, intelligence agencies in the United States (US) collected data on the health problem in late November and they transferred them to the Pentagon. four fountains
Because the origin of any new virus is extremely difficult to determine, but it is important for scientists to discover it, experts around the world are in a hurry to discover the secret of a pathogen officially known as SARS-CoV2. This task for the researchers was significantly complicated by the Chinese government’s refusal to fully cooperate with Western and international health agencies, US and WHO officials complained.
Coronavirus threatened
© Zuma Press / Scanpix
Dr. Brownstein, with a team of researchers from Boston University and Boston Children’s Hospital, has been trying for more than a month to identify signs when residents of China’s Hubei province encountered COVID-19.
Dr. The logic of J. Brownstein’s research project was simple: Respiratory diseases cause very specific behaviors in the communities in which they spread. Therefore, satellite imagery of such behavior would help explain what was happening, even if the people infected at the time were unaware of the extent of the problem.
“We are trying to see hospital performance and employment,” explained the professor of medicine. – We count the cars near the hospital. Parking lots fill up if there are many patients in the hospital. Therefore, the more parking spaces there are, the more intense the hospital work will be, perhaps because something is happening in the community, such as the spread of an infection and getting more people to see doctors. Just look at the number of cars … We found more vehicles at various hospitals. “
Dr. According to Brownstein, the image formed after analyzing the data is not final, but the numbers still tell.
“We are talking about an increasing amount of information showing that something was happening in Wuhan,” he said. – More research is needed to uncover the whole truth and find out how disease outbreaks really start in populations. Satellite imagery is just other evidence. “
Disease ecologist Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance, a Manhattan-based nonprofit, said the study by Harvard researchers was “just incredible.”
Coronavirus threatened
“We need to analyze all the possible evidence on the origin and timing of the virus,” said Daszak, whose organization is trying to discover the origins of the new diseases. – When we perform analyzes after disease outbreaks, we find that the disease started much earlier. I mean not just days, weeks, or months, but years. I firmly believe that the same circumstances will arise in the case of COVID-19. “
David Perlin, director of research at the New Jersey Center for Discovery and Innovation, admitted he was intrigued by Dr. The Brownstein study, however, has not yet definitely convinced him.
“I think some of the methods used are questionable, and their interpretation is a bit far-fetched,” said Perlin. – The problem is that in this case we only have a subset of data. I always start to worry when people start to draw conclusions from subgroups of data and select only the information that is useful for their hypothesis (such as Internet search engine queries). Such research is ambiguous. “
Dr. Brownstein’s team took nearly 350 photos taken by private satellites and initially analyzed traffic volumes and the number of cars near Wuhan’s largest hospitals in the past two years. Some locations were photographed approximately every week or two throughout 2019. in the fall. From approximately 350 shots, the researchers selected 108 suitable ones, in which the captured images of the city are not covered by smog, tall buildings, clouds or other objects that interfere with the analysis.
“The photo should be taken at noon,” said Dr. J. Brownstein. – Direct sunlight is required. Shadows only make it more difficult to count cars.
2018 October 10 There were 171 cars in the parking lot of Wuhan Tianyou Hospital, one of the largest in the city. A year later, the satellites captured 285 cars, i. and. 67 percent. more, as evidenced by data reviewed by researchers and shared with ABC News.
Parking lots at other Wuhan hospitals were up to 90 percent. more cars compared to 2018. autumn and 2019. autumn data The number of vehicles in the territory of Wuhan Tongji Medical University increased in 2019. in mid-September.
To ensure that their conclusions were not wrong, the researchers considered all the factors that could explain the increase in traffic: from large gatherings in public places to new construction work in hospitals. Despite all the scenarios considered, the number of cars was still statistically significantly higher.
“Summarizing the information we received after the 2018 review. It can be said that in almost all cases we have the largest number of cars near hospitals in 2019. September-December,” said Tom Diamond, with Dr. President of RS Metrics, a member of the Brownstein research team.
To “test” their methodology at the beginning of the study, that is, and. extrapolating information on car movements using satellite imagery, Harvard Medical School staff compared the number of cars in the parking lot at the Juan Seafood Market in September, when the market was open, and later when the market closed when authorities reported a new outbreak of coronavirus. The researchers said they noticed significant changes. “Satellite imagery confirms the concept that parking lots reflect people’s activity and movement,” said Dr. J. Brownstein.
The study was submitted to the journal Nature Digital Medicine and is currently being reviewed. It will be published on the Dash server at Harvard University on Monday morning.
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