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According to Gozman, on January 23, when nearly 200 Russian cities demonstrated about Navaln’s imprisonment, the country’s police were as aggressive as the militia in Minsk. Almost 4,000 people were arrested that day. persons.
It is true that the next weekend there were even more arrests: more than 5.3 thousand. But thousands of people took to the streets despite the obvious threat of arrest, which Gozman says testifies that the situation in Russia has the potential to fundamentally change.
„Scanpix“ / ITAR-TASS nuotr./Leonidas Gozmanas
This politician is a portal for political scientists IDU.org highlights eight of his observations on events in Russia in recent weeks:
one. A. Navalnas became the only alternative opposition to V. Putin. Like Nelson Mandela and Lech Walęsa in their time, it is A. Navaln who is seen in the world and in Russia as an alternative to the current president.
“If he is not killed, the chances that he will one day lead Russia will increase to a very high level,” Gozman said.
2. It is true that, in his opinion, it should be understood that as long as Russia is ruled by Putin, A. Navaln will not be released, although a broad campaign in support of this activist is being organized. The decision to release him would be considered a victory for the protesters: Putin will never allow such an impression.
AFP / Photo by Scanpix / Alexei Navaln and Vladimir Putin
3. Be that as it may in the future, the regime has decided to embark on the path of intensified repression. According to Gozman, the brutal suppression of protests and the suppression of any political activity should be expected in the near future.
“Unwanted citizens will be called enemies of the people, dissidents will be persecuted, control of the media will be strengthened,” predicts the politician.
Four. However, according to L. Gozman, the regime also understands that it will no longer be able to fully control the legislature, even if, as usual, the results of the upcoming elections to the State Duma are blatantly falsified.
“Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the elections to the State Duma, which will be held in September, will be annulled if any pretext is found,” says L. Gozman.
5. He also believes that hostility towards Russia and its isolation in the international arena is “inevitable”. And this is dangerous: “New adventures that the Russian leadership may undertake to mobilize society cannot be ruled out.”
6. According to L. Gozman, there is no confrontation or division in Russian society: citizens who are critical of the government do not condemn other people, but the Putin bureaucracy.
“For their part, Putin’s voters are passive and unwilling to defend him.” There has been no action in Russia in the past week to support the current president, “notes L. Gozman.
7. “The political confrontation turned into a moral confrontation. Lies, hypocrisy and corruption test the patience of an active part of Russian society. The segment of the opposition is not so much in favor of reforming certain institutions as in terms of a return to morals, ”says the politician.
Photo by Scanpix / Protester arrested in St. Petersburg
He argues that the regime is being rejected so strongly that citizens are not demanding negotiations and compromises, as was the case during the 2011-2012 protests. No, the Russians want the Putin regime to collapse and leave the political arena.
“In this sense, the situation can be called revolutionary, similar to helping the USSR and the Warsaw Pact countries in the late 1980s and early 1990s,” Gozman said.
8. However, the analyst has no hope that the situation – political – in Russia will change during the elections. The country inevitably faces an “illegal” period: “There is less and less hope that the exit from the current systemic crisis will be peaceful.”
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