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Belarus has been plagued by massive protests for half a year. The wave of desire for freedom was unleashed on August 9. the results of the presidential elections, in which Aliaksandr Lukashenko, the country’s leader since 1994, was declared the winner.
The Belarusian opposition forces and the West claim that the elections were rigged and that the real winner was Sviatlana Cichanouskaya, who did not even have to participate at first, but replaced her husband, who was imprisoned by the Lukashenko regime.
Fearing for his safety and that of his family, Cichanouskaja left for Lithuania, but the opposition did not stop. The Coordination Council is established and S. Cichanouskaya herself travels through western capitals and meets with the leaders of the great powers.
At that time, massive protests continued in Belarus. Going out demands people batka the supposed resignation of the country’s president, new democratic elections, the release of political prisoners. Among the people who spend time behind bars, some of the opposition leaders: Marija Kalesnikava, Sergei Cichanouski, Viktor Babaryka.
Although Lukashenko has not resigned, events in Belarus have not slipped in the eyes of the West. The United States, the European Union, individual states have announced tough sanctions against Belarus. The pressure of soft power began to meet: the International Hockey Federation refused to organize the World Championship in Minsk.
What will the West do to Lukashenko?
Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) associate professor Andžejus told the Pukštas news portal tv3.lt that a few years ago the entire European Union was at a crossroads because it did not know how to deal with Belarus.
“There was an opinion that the principle of the gingerbread and the whip should be applied; it is necessary to support the opposition to a certain extent, but also to consult with Lukashenko to a certain extent,” said the political scientist.
No one promises to give Lukashenko a gingerbread after the last elections, because practically the entire democratic Western world does not recognize him as the legitimate leader of Belarus. Although this is not the first protest against Lukashenko and his regime in Belarus, it is the wave that has swept since the summer of 2020 that has forced world leaders to turn their backs. batkai.
Currently, the protests are somewhat moderate, with a number of key opposition figures retreating to the West or being imprisoned. However, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Seimas Žygimantas Pavilionis assures that the desire for freedom in the hearts of Belarusians has not been quenched.
Now all the cards are falling, because I have never seen in history a level of democratic ascent that covers all walks of life, even if it is now suppressed. In reality, the entire nation has rebelled, although the repression is enormous, ”said the Conservative.
The politician is convinced that it is necessary to mobilize a coalition of Western countries this year to achieve free and democratic elections in Belarus.
“It is a very difficult task to persuade the major western capitals to speak directly and frankly with Putin and say that that’s enough, everything is over, we have reached a point where we do not return. <...> You will no longer stop freedom “, – assured Ž. Pavilion.
According to him, the thank you factor and the fact that Joe Biden entered the White House, whose team of people, Ž. According to Pavilionis, he puts the importance of democracy on his agenda.
“It is important for us to put the freedom of Belarus in his words,” said the politician.
Is dialogue with Lukashenko possible?
Associate Professor at Vytautas Magnus University, A. Pukštas, says he does not believe a scenario is possible in which the unrest in Belarus will end with negotiations between the opposition, A. Lukashenko and the West.
“I think it would be useless.” The Belarusian opposition and the bloc of transatlantic states are already taking the position that negotiations with Lukashenko are not timely, “he said.
However, according to the political scientist, the West and the opposition would not want to sit at the same table with batkaLukashenko himself would not deny the opportunity to negotiate.
“Lukashenko himself would go to the negotiations, he wants to cosmetically change the constitution, cosmetically change the order. However, such negotiations are probably not worth going to now, that position is widely publicized and not much discussed about it, ”said A. Pukštas.
“All those long months, the people who died, the repression showed that the point has been made. According to virtually all Western leaders, Lukashenko is an illegitimate president, he must stand down and give way to his nation, which must elect its representatives. And it will be their decision and we have to talk to them, “said Ž. Pavilion.
In his opinion, Vladimir Putin should also understand that Lukashenko’s longer tenure in the presidency and the unrest in Belarus are useless for him.
“Mr Putin, calculate the cost of continuing to maintain a regime that is isolated and even affects your own situation. All Russian dissidents see those things and increasingly sympathize with Belarus, “he said. Pavilion.
Will Cichanouskaya return to Belarus?
Although S. Cichanouskaja currently lives in Vilnius, he does not intend to stay here. He said “he would like to work with the international community to find a way to return safely to Belarus.”
“As I have been the subject of two criminal proceedings and an international registration, special guarantees must be given for my return. The situation in Navalno shows that this requires the help of the international community, especially the OSCE,” said S. Cichanouskaja.
“Every leader must be with his nation. The ultimate goal of all of us is that not only Sviatlana, but all Belarusians, who are currently forced to save their lives in the West, return to Belarus, ”Ž assured. Pavilion.
However, according to him, it is the responsibility of all Western countries to facilitate a safe return so that nothing happens to Mr Cichanouskaya and other Belarusians.
“It cannot be simply going back to jail, knowing the conditions in which people are held there, knowing what that regime can do with those opposition leaders. Here we are responsible for the life and future of that person ”, said the Conservative.
However, A. Pukštas considers that the question of the return of S. Cichanouskaja to Belarus will remain open, at least in the near future. The political scientist believes that the Belarusian opposition leader will not return to his homeland in the near future.
“I think it would be a mistake and it would not achieve anything. I think he will not take that step, “reasoned the interlocutor.
Is 2021 the year of the end of the regime?
“He had to step down from power decades ago. If we do not mobilize all our forces to help Belarusians defend that freedom this year, every day it will sometimes cost lives and human health, torture and loss of jobs.
If we could defend that freedom, then we must shorten that period as much as possible, ”he asked if the Lukashenko regime could end this year. Pavilion.
Still, he says, it’s difficult to predict whether 2021 will be a tipping point. The politician recalled that Solidarity was established in Poland as early as 1980, and the Poles did not achieve freedom until nine years later.
“I don’t know how long it will take, but we want to keep it as short as possible. Every day it costs the Belarusian people the ten million Europeans who are currently suffering,” Ž said. Pavilion.
“This transformation is not that simple and transformations are never the same as each other. <...> Nobody predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union and neither of the entire socialist camp ”, commented A. Pukštas.
As an example, the political scientist gave the path to Ukraine, which, he said, was quite bloody and claimed many victims before then-President Viktor Yanukovych withdrew from the country.
“Belarus, seen anthropologically, in a different way, and everything is turning in another way. <...> If more people died because of Lukashenko, that protest would increase very quickly. Lukashenko understands this that you cannot take him to many casualties. <...> So far, I would say, a psychological war is being waged. Who will run out of patience, who will have nerves ”, said the VMU associate professor.
The political scientist reiterated that it was impossible to predict the course of this story.
“It is very difficult to plan, it can be here in half a year or in three years, but it can also be in three weeks,” said A. Pukštas.
The news portal tv3.lt wrote a little earlier that although the protests in Belarus that began in 2020 are the most massive since the secession of the Soviet Union and cover the entire country, there were more or less resistance actions against Aliaksandr Lukashenko and his regimen during your period two.
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