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A meeting of the Government Emergency Situations Commission (IECC) this week will propose to the government to extend the quarantine until early March. The quarantine is scheduled to end on January 31 so far.
“After hearing the information about the numbers, it can be said that the Covid-19 situation in Lithuania is improving a bit, we see positive numbers. However, the acceleration of the drop itself has slowed down a bit.
After evaluating all the arguments and figures expressed by both the Ministry of Health and the experts, the decision was made to propose to the Government to extend the quarantine for one more month, until February 28, ”the minister told reporters on Monday of the Interior, Agnė Bilotaitė. .
Take mitigation – too soon
The Cabinet of Ministers was advised by a group of government experts made up of several scientists to extend the quarantine for a month. However, Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius, a member of the Euromonitor International group and data scientist, disagrees with starting to ease the quarantine now.
“The consensus of the expert council is unanimous in that as long as the number of cases in 14 days is not less than 500 cases per 100,000. population, then we cannot consider anything about any release, “said V. Zemlys-Belevičius on tv3.lt.
According to him, even in the expert council the idea was heard that other countries, which have an analogous epidemiological situation like Lithuania, are not talking about easing the quarantine, but about tightening it.
“It gets so weird when other people in a situation think we’re bad and we think about how to break free. I will remind you that the situation in terms of numbers is what we have in November, when there was a lot of pressure on the government to impose restrictions. They performed there on November 7. strange partial restrictions that didn’t work.
In the same situation, it would be unwise to release. We can rejoice in the epidemiological situation, relax and flatten over the shoulder, and then go back to what we had in December. But nobody wants that. The question is when it is possible to release, but now is definitely not the time, “said the scientist.
Changes would wait every two weeks
However, not all days of quarantine are likely to be equally bitter: Ministers are working out a plan for how we can come out of quarantine in stages. The release from quarantine, according to A. Bilotaitė, would be carried out gradually, taking into account the morbidity in Covid-19.
“The key indicators that will be considered when proposing certain releases will not be the date, but the percentage of morbidity and positive tests for Covid-19,” added the minister.
Priority areas include access to health services, educational services, and business exemptions.
Health Minister Arūnas Dulkys notes that the epidemiological situation in Lithuania is improving. According to the Minister, according to the morbidity of two weeks of 100 thousand. Lithuania is “very close to the door behind which stage C and other stages await us.”
Currently, the incidence of Covid-19 in Lithuania reaches 527 cases per 100,000. population within 14 days, so there are strict restrictions in the country. When the number drops to less than 500 cases in two weeks, we will see a lighter quarantine.
“The measures could be revised every two weeks, looking at the data, the numbers that we see,” Dulkys said.
Social life
Although the plan to leave the quarantine is still preliminary, A. Dulkys provided examples of which areas would be released first. According to him, the plan of measures covers the period from February 1 to May 15.
For example, when the number of cases reaches 200 cases, 100 thousand. population in 14 days, two households could be allowed to communicate. According to A. Dulkis, this is possible in mid-February. After reaching 100 cases, 100 thousand. population, the communication circle would be expanded to three households.
“If the morbidity rate reaches less than 50 cases, it would be possible to suggest that there would be no restrictions here,” added A. Dulkys.
In addition, according to A. Bilotaitė, if the morbidity rate is less than 500 and the number of positive Covid-19 tests does not exceed 10%, the gradual release of the restriction of circulation between municipalities could be considered. For example, restricting movement only on weekends and holidays, not on weekdays.
Education
When the morbidity rate drops to 200 cases, 100 thousand. population within 14 days, it will be possible to consider the return of some students to schools. It is estimated that this could occur in the second half of February.
“We could consider primary contact or mixed education, of course, with certain requirements,” stressed the minister.
If the morbidity rate drops to 150, seniors could also go back to schools for continuing or coeducation.
“If there were less than 100 cases, we could speak of basic, secondary, and primary education also taking place in classrooms, applying periodic tests to teachers and students,” said A. Dulkys.
Business and services
Ministers are also talking about exemptions for companies. According to A. Dulkis, the service sector could return to work when the morbidity rate does not exceed 150 cases per 100,000. population in 14 days. The minister is considering that this could be in early March.
At that time, the business would be subject to access restrictions to the facilities.
“In our opinion, it would be possible to allow stores with a separate entrance from the outside to operate when there are less than 200 boxes,” said A. Dulkys.
Among the discussions is the proposal of the Ministry of Economy and Innovation to allow the operation of centers that provide cross-country skiing services, guaranteeing safety requirements. There are six such centers in Lithuania.
Until March 1, the recommendation to opt for teleworking in both the public and private sectors would be maintained, except for those functions that must be performed in the workplace.
Events and culture
According to A. Dulkys, the ban on organizing events could be relaxed when the morbidity rate falls below 25.
“Events could be up to 100 people indoors and up to 200 people outdoors,” the minister said.
In addition, according to the Minister of Health, as of March 1, you can think about opening museums and galleries, individual trainings.
End of quarantine
The second quarantine in Lithuania has continued since the beginning of November, but it is still difficult to say when it will end. Dulkys believes this will be possible in mid-spring if vaccination and testing programs are successful and the public honestly adheres to quarantine restrictions.
“Maybe, let’s say, there could be no quarantine at all on April 1, and maybe on May 1 we could have fewer than 25 cases of morbidity,” predicted A. Dulkys.
The ministries will present their proposals for the plan this week and discuss them with the Health Ministry and experts. The plan will be discussed again at the WESC meeting on Monday, February 1.
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