It featured the top five threats to the state – the impact of the pandemic is much more serious

The pandemic crisis, the split between the EU and the US, the EU’s attempts to pursue strategic autonomy, China’s technological dictatorship and the security of the Lithuanian-Belarusian border are the top five challenges for the security of the country this year.

At the beginning of the conference, L. Kasčiūnas recalled that the state strategy for national security is being reviewed.

“We started with a community of experts and academics. We had a couple of conversations about why a work strategy should be revised. We have said that the global order is changing, new players are emerging, such as China, Russia, who will never reach an agreement with our membership in NATO and the EU, and will continue to strengthen their military power in their region, “said L. Kasčiūnas .

According to him, several pandemics are also affected by the pandemic.

“Although the concept of threats is changing, the priorities for naming these threats must be maintained,” emphasized the president of NSGK.

According to L. Kasčiūnas, a letter with ideas on the above issue will be sent today to the Government and the Ministry of National Defense, who are preparing a new strategy.

“I am very hopeful that by the end of the next spring session, probably in June, we in the Seimas will be able to approve a new National Security Strategy,” said the politician.

He also noted that strategies are sometimes simply “written down, translated into foreign languages, and put away in a drawer.”

“This is not how it is supposed to be. We do not want to limit ourselves to the formal adoption of that strategy. We are talking about a specific strategic cycle, which also includes an implementation mechanism and control capabilities. We, NSGK, will invite several institutions annually. and we will ask how they implement the provisions of the strategy ”, emphasized L. Kasčiūnas.

Challenges presented: the pandemic is having a great impact in all areas

Speaking of future challenges, L. Kasčiūnas first mentioned the management of the pandemic.
According to him, the success of managing the pandemic will depend on the rate of vaccination, public attitudes towards vaccination, the risk of new strains of the virus and the speed of diagnosis.

“It is necessary to assess the long-term consequences of the pandemic for the health of the population, both after the onset of this disease and due to other unwelcome diseases, such as oncological diseases,” said L. Kasčiūnas.

According to him, it is necessary to create a crisis-resistant health system that is capable of “withstanding cases of infections, ecological and natural disasters and military conflicts, as well as other emergencies.”

“It is necessary for the State to create a national crisis management system, coordinated by the National Crisis Management Center, reporting directly to the Prime Minister,” said the parliamentarian.

EU-US relations They are influenced by a variety of factors

The second challenge was geopolitical issues, which, according to the head of the NSGC, were also affected by the pandemic.

“It would seem that the EU consensus to act together … should have been an advantage, but the examples of Israel and the UK show that some nation states were more efficient and the EU is still losing the race for the vaccine. today, “said Kasčiūnas.

According to him, it is necessary to maintain the functionality and sustainability of NATO.

“While there is no doubt that NATO is a package of collective security guarantees, the division between the EU countries and the United States has been obvious recently,” said the politician.

L. Kasčiūnas pointed out that the different opinions of the EU countries and the US are not determined solely by the mandate of former US President Donald Trump.

According to him, this is also determined by differences in cultures and identities, internal confrontation within the United States, and Chinese influence.

“The US turn towards China, the growing gap between the US and major European countries, and if we fail to maneuver and choose the right priorities, it may lead to Lithuania, as well as its closest allies, the Baltic states, Poland , to face a serious challenge in 2021. strengthen the presence of military forces in our region. And this is probably one of our most important strategic objectives, “said L. Kasčiūnas.

The path to European autonomy can lead to fragmentation

Speaking about the EU’s plans, the head of the NSGC pointed out that the search for autonomy could turn into fragmentation within the community itself.

“The ghosts of the EU’s alternative Europe roam the continent. After Brexit, you cannot say that the EU is the same as Europe. After Brexit, there are opportunities for other European scenarios, and there are many different artists. All of them we are well aware of Russia’s attempts to pretend to be a “real Europe”, presumably preserving basic Christian values ​​and seeking to “liberate all of Europe” from the “oppression” of value decay again, “said L. Kasčiūnas.

He also spoke about the separation of Poland and Hungary from Western European countries, relations between Turkey and the EU.

“The idea of ​​European autonomy should not become a challenge for NATO. Lithuania’s interest is only a European security and defense policy that complements NATO. We need to talk not about strategic autonomy, but about strengthening the European pillar within This will definitely be addressed in the new National Security Strategy, “said the politician, noting that he believed in Europe’s ability to face future challenges.

Lithuania’s relations with China cannot be detrimental to our cooperation with allies

In his presentation, L. Kasčiūnas also highlighted “China’s technological dictatorship”, which, according to him, will force states to choose which technosphere to belong to.

“China is a strategic opponent of the United States in all areas. China is an undemocratic authoritarian state of technocratic dictatorship that pursues an expansive foreign policy. Along with other countries, it uses a wide range of sanctions, from economic sanctions, influence buying, even informative sanctions, ”said L. Kasčiūnas.

According to him, Lithuania’s interests coincide with the security interests of the United States, so relations with China should be evaluated accordingly.

“Lithuania’s relations with China cannot be detrimental to cooperation with the United States and other NATO allies. Lithuania’s economic relations with China must not create an influence for China to act on Lithuania’s domestic and foreign policy decisions. “, said L. Kasčiūnas.

Speaking on this issue, the politician pointed out that “only companies that meet the transatlantic and Euro-Atlantic security criteria” could participate in tenders for various strategic objects and companies in the country.

Lithuania’s main interest in Belarus is its independence.

Finally, the MP spoke about another challenge: the Russia-Belarus union, which Aliaksandr Lukashenko is still talking about.

“It just came to our knowledge then de facto it would be a direct neighbor of Lithuania. Despite Lithuania’s clear interest in maintaining the greatest possible autonomy of Belarus from Russia that seeks to integrate it, cooperation between our countries is limited by the illegality of the presidential election of Aliaksandr Lukashenko, the dispute over the safety of the nuclear power plant in Astrava and the violent repression of Belarusian civil society “- noted L. Kasčiūnas.

He recalled that another strategic exercise for Russia and Belarus “Zapad 2021” is scheduled for September this year. The lease of Russian military infrastructure in Belarus is also coming to an end this year.

“These deadlines will open opportunities for Russia to put pressure on the now completely independent Lukashenko regime, get into a corner and impose its own rules of the game,” the NSGK chairman said.

Therefore, as a member of the Seimas pointed out, Lithuania must have a clear and effective strategy towards Belarus.

At the end of the conference, L. Kasčiūnas also noted that he hoped that a similar analysis of the challenges would become a permanent fixture in the activities of the NSGK presidents.