Virologist: January and February are the months we have to wait

The British variety has almost certainly reached Lithuania

I. Olendraitė, who also works on the Independent Expert Advisory Council formed by Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, Delfi stated that the British strain of coronavirus has most likely reached Lithuania.

“Most likely, the British variety could almost guarantee that it is in Lithuania. Only so much that when he was able to enter Lithuania, it was in November-December, then there was quarantine in the country. We probably did not give the virus the opportunity to spread so much from an imported case, ”said I. Olendraitė.

The researcher explained that the last reading of the sequence was made from most of the data in Vilnius and accessing samples from other places is difficult.

“We did not see that because of the limited data. But it is likely that this strain with its branch of mutations is in Lithuania, but it is not as widespread yet,” said the researcher.

I. Olendraitė considered that if the British strain of coronavirus had spread widely in the country, the disease records registered in December would have been due to this reason. And in this case, one or another sequence of this strain is detected.

Investigator Delphi He stressed that so far no systematic work has been carried out in this area, only individual initiatives.

“It just came to our attention then. There are many good initiatives from the Vilnius University Life Sciences Center, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences (LSMU), Santara Clinics and Thermofisher Scientific. But they are all private initiatives or That is very good, because without it we would not know anything at all, “said the interlocutor.

He explained that sequencing was necessary to assess the situation and prepare possible measures.

“If we already know that there are certain strains that perhaps spread more easily, they are resistant to immunity, it shows incorrect PCR results. After this sequencing and knowing what is happening in Lithuania, we know who needs to prepare.

We really know that that variety is probably in Lithuania or will arrive in the country at any time. It is impossible that it is present in the whole of the United Kingdom, Holland, Spain, Denmark, it is spreading throughout almost all of Europe.

That she will still come to us. All the calculations of how to release quarantine and vaccination are supported by the fact that we want to be ready by the time that variety arrives. “To control the situation,” he explained.

I. Olendraitė said that this is exactly what the sequencing would show: if it were done every week from random samples from all over Lithuania, it would be possible to prepare for a greater number of diseases in advance.

“We are in a good position to withstand the quarantine. Because if there is a third wave, even greater or similar to the second, so that it does not rise as badly as it would if we had it now ”, urged a PhD student in virology and bioinformatics at the University of Cambridge.

Researcher I. Olendraitė said there is other good news: the quarantine affects all strains of coronavirus.

“It just came to our knowledge then. There is no tragedy, but it must be taken very seriously,” said the interlocutor.

The interlocutor assured that the new strain of the virus, although it is spreading faster, is growing enormously after the release of the quarantine facilities.

“The first thing that doesn’t grow with a new variety is very fast. The first case was registered in September. Then, before Christmas, the quarantine was released and that’s when the numbers spiked inhumanly.

The second thing in the summer that we talked about a certain number of morbidity in other countries, then was that the upper limit was 25 cases per 100 thousand. population in 14 days. (…) And now we hope to reach the 200 mark.

Compared to what has just been, the current figures are much better. But we can’t even compare it to what we had in the summer or early fall. That situation is improving, but it is not excellent or very good, ”said researcher I. Olendraitė about current trends in coronavirus morbidity.

He said that once vaccinated, all people at risk and with higher morbidity rates will no longer be so dire.

“I need to live”

I. Olendraitė said that it is only necessary to survive for several months before spring.

“No, definitely not. With a simple flu, we can look. In winter, many more people get sick. Now those January and February are the months when you need to earn a living. And if we wait for this period, let’s hope everything is fine. good enough, “he said.

The interlocutor said that the Council of Independent Experts, which advises the government, is considering how to release the least risky quarantine measures.

“And during those meetings, it is said that it is thought that things will be made known that would help people, but would not cause much risk,” said I. Olendraitė.

As an example, he mentioned the authorization of ski resorts already mentioned in the media. The risk of becoming infected there is not high, almost minimal.

“Psychologically, such releases would add fun to people,” said the expert.

The interlocutor said that it should not be believed that the first quarantine releases will be very significant.

“It just came to our attention then. It takes a long time to go from one case to 100, but it takes a cruel little time to grow from 100 cases to 1000. So you have to be very careful. And release only what is necessary. or what is the absolute minimum risk, but it has a positive effect on the emotional and financial condition of people ”, he pointed out the priorities.

He reiterated that the epidemiological situation in Lithuania is still not good. The quarantine scenarios for expert presentations so far only deal with getting out of worst case D.

“We are not talking about being in Scenario A. In the context itself, it is important not to get lost and not look at the last few weeks.” Delphi said I. Olendraitė.