Stankūnas: It is too early to open schools, it is necessary to achieve a specific indicator

In his account, M. Stankūnas wrote that the epidemiological situation in Lithuania is improving.

Therefore, it is said that it is already worthwhile to “release” certain quarantine restrictions. This discussion probably revolves around schools ”, he taught in the social space.

The professor said that several scientific studies show that the opening of schools plays a relatively small role in the spread of the virus. However, our government is in no rush to do so. Why?

First, M. Stankūnas asked that the situation in the countries where the studies were conducted be analyzed.

“The studies I have already mentioned and several others were carried out when the epidemiological situation in these countries differed significantly from that of Lithuania. Let’s say the Swedish study looks at the period from March 1. Until June 30th. During this period, the maximum number of new cases in Sweden is 7 days. reached 108/100 000 inhabitants.

Another study in Israel was conducted in 2020. March – July. During this period, the “peak” of this indicator reached 201 / 100,000 inhabitants. For comparison, it is currently 478 in Lithuania, and until recently it was 1094, on December 24, ”recalled the LSMU professor.

However, last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) in a report highlighted that the opening of educational institutions with low prevalence of the virus does not play a significant role in society.

“However, with their high prevalence, they can be quite a significant factor in the growth of the epidemic. (…) Furthermore, in the same report, the WHO emphasizes that school closures should be used as a last resort. In Lithuania, Schools (primary education) ran until the “last minute”, that is, they were interrupted only in mid-December, when the average number of cases per day exceeded 3,000.

It was decided to close them because, according to the abundant scientific literature, it is an effective means of stopping the spread of the pandemic. And it seems that this decision helped our situation a lot ”, he recalled at the end of last year.

“The natural question is, when can students go back to school? I think it will be gradual. Elementary and high school graduates will likely open the school doors first. However, I believe this should be done when students, teachers and family members can feel safe at school, ”said M. Stankūnas.

The American Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has identified various levels of risk associated with school openings and uses a 14-day rate of new cases to define them. Therefore, the levels of risk of spreading the virus in schools are as follows:

> 200 Increased risk of virus spread in schools;
50-200 risk auspices;
20 – 50 Medium risk;
5-20 Low risk;
<5 Žemiausia rizika.

“My suggestion would be to refrain from opening schools until we lower this indicator to 200 or less in Lithuania. Otherwise, we put our children, teachers and family members at risk,” wrote M. Stankūnas on Facebook.

According to the Department of Statistics, 686 new cases of COVID-19 were detected in Lithuania last day and 14 people died.