Dust forecast: maybe no more quarantine on April 1

Health Minister A. Dulkys hinted that we are already very close to the door behind Scenario C, with more flexible quarantine requirements.

The politician also shared possible future quarantine predictions. Of course, only in cases where morbidity rates will continue to fall.

“The forecasts are not grateful, but you can try. As I said, if we continue to do as well as we do now, fewer than 200 cases could be achieved in the second half of February. And the logic would be that we continuously measure, every week, and we provide possible measures every two weeks. With that in mind, perhaps there would be no more quarantine on April 1, and perhaps in the first days of May we would have less than 25 cases, “said the minister.

He added that this is just a prediction, given that the coronavirus vaccination will run smoothly and actively, testing will begin, and people will continue to comply with agreements.

“Let us agree that this is only a forecast under all conditions,” the minister said.

According to the latest data, 527 morbidities in 14 days are recorded in Lithuania on Monday, 100 thousand. population.

Delphi recalls that at the beginning of January, the experts presented 4 quarantine scenarios to the Government. On this basis, after consultation with all the ministries, a concrete plan will be presented next Monday, which could be modified once a certain morbidity rate is reached.

A. Dulkys told a press conference after the WESC meeting that releases can be expected at the government meeting next week.

We present the 4 scenarios presented by experts.

Scenario A

Scenario A: when less than 25 cases will reach 100,000. population in 14 days, the proportion of positive tests does not exceed 4 percent, and with an effective system of testing and contact tracing, most restrictions can be removed.

According to experts, this would not restrict domestic contacts. Nor would there be restrictions on the activities of health and social assistance institutions.

The restrictions would not apply to higher education, general education, preschool education would take place. There would be no restrictions on restaurants, commerce and services.

Movement within the country’s municipalities would be free, but restrictions may apply to travel to foreign countries.

Meetings of people would be allowed, museums, theaters, exhibitions and cinemas would be operated, sports competitions would be held, but the flow of visitors would be limited.

Scenario B

Scenario B: when there will be 25-100 cases per 100,000. population in 14 days, a transition from national to local restrictions is possible; quarantine applies to the most proliferative activities.

In this case, contacts between more than three households would be prohibited.

Nor would there be restrictions on the activities of health and social assistance institutions.

Higher education will continue to function remotely, with exceptions for the health, veterinary and life sciences.

General, preschool and preschool education would be provided at the national level. And at the local level, stricter restrictions may apply depending on the epidemiological situation.

Catering establishments would restrict customer flows and conduct selective employee testing.

In commerce, the service sector would also have limited customer flows and special service requirements to reduce the risk of infection.

The movement of people within the country would be evaluated according to the epidemiological situation within the municipalities.

Depending on the epidemiological situation, restrictions may apply when traveling to foreign countries or when arriving in Lithuania: border control, traveler tests.

The following guidelines would apply to events: Meetings of up to 100 people are allowed with security measures and at a safe distance.

The number of participants in funerals and weddings must not exceed 10 people.

There are museums, theaters, exhibitions and cinemas, sports competitions, but traffic flows are limited.

Scenario C

Scenario C in the expert report was defined as follows: the number of cases exceeded 100 cases per 100,000. population within 14 days, intensified testing and contact tracing measures, national restrictions apply; Stronger quarantine measures are applied to the most proliferative activities.

This scenario would prohibit contact between more than two households.

The planned health care services would be maintained in the activities of the health and social care institutions. Priority is given to emergency care and the care of patients with COVID-19. Restricted access to social care institutions. Staff and patients are tested regularly.

Higher education is carried out remotely, with exceptions for the health, veterinary and life sciences, and staff are regularly tested.

Basic, secondary and primary education takes place in the classroom through regular tests by teachers and students.

At the local level, stricter restrictions may apply depending on the epidemiological situation. Employees are tested regularly.

Preschool and preschool education is provided at the national level. At the local level, stricter restrictions may apply depending on the epidemiological situation.

Employees are tested regularly.

The activities of the catering establishments are limited, only food is taken and the employees are periodically examined.

The point of sale restricts customer flows and applies special service requirements to reduce the risk of infection. Employees are tested regularly.

The service is provided remotely or without contact. With the exception of health services, psychologists / psychotherapists (if necessary), veterinary, police and other services whose staff is periodically examined.

Restrictions apply between and / or within municipalities depending on the epidemiological situation. Depending on the epidemiological situation, restrictions may apply when traveling to foreign countries or when arriving in Lithuania: border control, traveler tests.

Meetings of people are prohibited. The number of participants in funerals and weddings must not exceed 10 people. There are no museums, theaters, exhibitions, cinemas, or sports competitions, except professional sports training and competitions without spectators.

Scenario D

Scenario D is described below: the number of cases exceeds 500 cases per 100,000. population within 14 days, and when the level of infection reaches a level where it is no longer possible to provide treatment for COVID-19 in the existing healthcare infrastructure and human resources, the strictest control measures should be applied.

Contacts of more than one household member are prohibited, except for social support bubbles for up to 2 households. This provision may be revised in the light of changes in the epidemiological situation.

Restricted scheduled health care services are restricted. Priority is given to emergency care and the care of patients with COVID-19. Visits to social assistance institutions only in exceptional cases. Staff and patients are tested regularly.

Higher education – distance. Exceptions apply for health, veterinary and life sciences. Periodic tests of employees are carried out.

General education is provided at a distance, preschool and preschool education is not provided, but there are exceptions for children of mandatory staff.

The activities of the catering establishments are limited, only food is taken and the employees are periodically examined.

In terms of trade, only grocery, optical and veterinary stores operate. Employees are tested regularly.

The services are provided only remotely or without contact, with the exception of health care services, psychologists / psychotherapists (if necessary), veterinary, police and other services, whose staff are regularly screened.

Restrictions apply between and / or within municipalities depending on the epidemiological situation. Depending on the epidemiological situation, restrictions may apply when traveling to foreign countries or when arriving in Lithuania: border control, traveler tests.

Meetings are prohibited. The number of participants in funerals and weddings must not exceed 10 people. There are no museums, theaters, exhibitions and cinemas, or sports competitions, except professional sports training and competitions without spectators.