Experts on the COVID-19 situation: visible positive signs, herd immunity to be achieved in July

After the discussion of the coronavirus situation with the president, Mindaugas Sinkevičius, president of the Association of Lithuanian Municipalities (LSA), and two members of the Council of Health Experts: Professor Edita Sužiedėlienė and Professor Kęstutis.

We see positive signs

According to S. Krėpšta, the meeting was dedicated to preparations for the European Council meeting this Thursday.

During the meeting, the epidemiological situation of the country and the vaccination process were reviewed.

“We are seeing more and more positive signs and those timid perceptions that were seen two and a half weeks ago have been confirmed. We can say more boldly that the peak of the pandemic was reached at the beginning of the year and that the situation is currently moving in a positive direction, “he said.

But he added that it is important that this good news does not change.

Furthermore, he said, while the pressure on medical facilities remains high, it is diminishing with each passing day.

We are seeing more and more positive signs and those timid perceptions that were observed two and a half weeks ago have been confirmed.

S.Krėpšta stressed that it would be possible to gradually reduce restrictions on certain activities.

“Of course, we need to assess the context in which we see new strains of the virus that are perhaps more dangerous and could spread faster,” emphasized the adviser to the president.

According to S. Krėpšta, the priority groups that could be the first to feel the release from constraints as the epidemiological situation in the country improves would be schools, kindergartens and socially vulnerable families.

According to Professor K. Petrikonis, member of the Council of Health Experts, the substantial improvement of the epidemiological situation and the possibility of releasing restrictions are discussed in late February or early March:

“As long as there are fewer patients in the hospitals and the incidence drops to a number where certain restrictions can be lowered.”

He wants to achieve herd immunity in July

“The president, in consultation with experts, sees a great need to have a very clear target at the EU level for when we can achieve herd immunity,” Krėpšta said.

“At the European Council on Thursday, I will propose an EU-wide audience and a clear target for vaccination. It should be realistic, but at the same time ambitious, for example achieving public immunity by mid-summer or at the latest at the end. This Lithuanian initiative already has the support of Latvia and Estonia.

Setting a specific target would allow the European Union (EU) to focus its efforts on procuring sufficient quantities of vaccines as soon as possible. This is possible because new vaccines will be registered in the coming months, but the EU must act quickly and increase production capacity ”, added G. Nausėda to his Facebook account.

To get herd immunity, about 70% of people must get vaccinated. population. In this case, Lithuania should vaccinate about 2 million. people, that is, have 4 million. vaccine dose.

Such a goal, according to experts, can be set for July. The dates proposed by the president are July 6 or 15.

According to S.Krėpšta, in order to achieve herd immunity in the summer, vaccination processes must be sped up.

Setting a specific target would allow the European Union to focus its efforts on acquiring sufficient quantities of vaccines as soon as possible.

“On the one hand, vaccination rates are not low, we are among the top five countries in the EU in terms of people vaccinated.

On the other hand, we must not compete with other states, but, above all, we must set ourselves the ambitious goal of achieving public immunity, because that is the way out of the crisis.

And if we set that goal in midsummer, there would certainly be talk of vaccination rates. <...> it should increase five to six times, “he said at the conference.

Proposes the establishment of a vaccination coordinating center

During the press conference, K.Petrikonis, Vice Chancellor of Lithuanian Health Sciences University (LSMU), presented the vaccination system on how the population could be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.

Currently, 1.82 percent have already received the first vaccine. population, according to the Department of Statistics.

“We estimate that those two million could be divided into two thousand two hundred GPs, that is, in fact, each GP would have to vaccinate around a thousand of their patients, and that would be three or four months.

If they are distributed monthly there are 250 or 300 people, and if it is 30 days it is 10 vaccinations a day ”, explained the expert about the possible vaccination system.

In his opinion, this objective is realistic, but requires specific coordination and inter-institutional cooperation.

“In mid-July, so many (70% 15 minutes) populations are likely to be reached, ”he said. But only if enough vaccines arrive in Lithuania.

Therefore, the Council of Health Experts recommended the establishment of an interagency vaccination coordination center dedicated exclusively to ensuring a smooth vaccination process.

According to the expert, 4 types of vaccines are expected to be available in Lithuania by the summer.

According to K. Petrikonis, it is not entirely clear how the mass vaccination would be carried out, there are still unanswered questions, but it is desired that the patient have a close relationship with his family doctor and learn the necessary information from him.

And for the vaccination itself, the patient could be referred through the E. system to one of the institutions that coordinates the vaccination.

The experts also recommended the development of a herd immunity monitoring model or system that would show how vaccination appears common across the country:

“Once again, we know that vaccines are not 100 percent effective, possibly some patients will not be vaccinated in full doses, other problems may arise. Some people already have immunity because they are sick,” a member of the Council of Experts on Health mentioned possible problems related to the registry of vaccinated people.

In addition, he emphasized, the Ministry of Health (SAM) is already discussing the establishment of a direct line for vaccination advice.

Mutations of the virus are alarming

Mutations in the virus were also discussed during the meeting with the president.

“We are faced with the situation that several strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus have been identified. <...> and, in fact, they are worrisome because of mutations in the genome and because of certain characteristics of the virus that can also change the epidemiological situation to some degree.

“Now, considering the first half of this year, when we still do not have as many vaccinated populations as we would like, and also the current strict quarantine, when the situation is changing quite favorably, we cannot forget these changes in the virological situation,” he said in Press conference. After the meeting with the president, said E.Sužėdielienė, Vice Chancellor for Science at Vilnius University (VU).

Therefore, according to her, a genomic research plan should be approved immediately, which would ensure the detection of possible vaccine mutations in Lithuania.

In addition, the expert pointed out that the scope of said investigation should be significantly expanded.

We cannot forget these changes in the virological situation.

Only 4 of the 60 municipalities are still “red”

LSA President M.Sinkevičius said at a press conference that the municipality has so far made a significant contribution to managing the pandemic and is ready to continue to contribute to free itself from the shackles of COVID-19.

“Only four of the 60 municipalities are those where the epidemic is raging and there is still no low tide. Everything else is the rest of Lithuania, other municipalities look much better,” he pointed out the positive indicators.

According to him, he would like the percentage of the vaccinated population to be higher.

However, M Sinkevičius was satisfied with the president’s ambitious goal of vaccinating a sufficient number of the population near Joniniai, which would allow him to obtain herd immunity.

Therefore, he noted, “the ambitious challenge raises questions that we must begin to answer now, or at least prepare for its response.”

COVID-19 data from the last day

According to the Statistics Department, 717 new cases of coronavirus were confirmed in Lithuania last day. Another 18 people died.

A total of 168,708 people in COVID-19 are affected in the country. The first dose of the vaccine was given to 50,933 people against the coronavirus, and 2,460 people received both doses.

Cabinet on Monday Experts were consulted on how and when the quarantine regime could be relaxed. Experts told ministers that a steady decline is now being observed, but that does not mean it is necessary to attack to release the quarantine.

The experts suggested to the Cabinet of Ministers that it legalize social bubbles, but not rush to lift restrictions on movement between municipalities and the provision of services. According to Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, it is possible to talk about changes in restrictions only from February.

Health Minister Arūnas Dulkys also said Mondaythat around half a million people in the country can be predicted to have an asymptomatic or mild form of coronavirus (COVID-19).