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According to him, the scope of testing has been expanded again after the festive period, the proportion of positive investigations has dropped to 15%, but because of this, says the researcher, there should be no rush to rejoice.
“I would not be in a hurry to be happy, because the numbers (of patients, aut.p.) in hospitals are not decreasing yet. If we are talking about some kind of liberation, then until the health system starts to function normally, then release (quarantine, aut.p.) would mean overloading it again. We can’t afford it, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius on the show” Delfi rytas “on Monday.
According to him, the coronavirus strains registered in several countries are also concerning.
“If we start to free ourselves now and that variety arrives, we will have to ‘tighten’ the hospitals again, which would mean more deaths. For this reason, it is necessary to speak carefully about the release of restrictions “, emphasized the researcher.
V. Zemlys-Balevičius also said that the statistics of coronavirus cases in the country will continue to be monitored this week; the pandemic can be considered manageable when the proportion of positive tests, according to him, is 4%.
“What does it mean if we break free and cannot control the epidemic? – This means that we will enjoy a freer life for a week, two and then we will “sit” in the same quarantine again for a couple of months. Do we all want to rest for a week and then go back to the same quarantine? Probably not. This needs to be discussed, “said a member of the Council of Health Experts convened by the president.
He also pointed out that the situation in their territories is monitored by municipal administrations.
“Alytus has increased the tests, has taken the appropriate measures and has its own result. They really showed us: if they increase the tests, what is the real face (pandemic, aut.p.). If we have more tests in Alytus and the number of cases is not low, perhaps it is a sign that the fall is not sustainable or we are so high that it is still bad, “said the data scientist.
“There is no funny news, we cannot relax. Unfortunately, we will have to live with a pandemic ”, emphasized V. Zemlys Balevičius.
According to him, both the UK COVID-19 strain and the South African mutation of the virus are cause for concern.
“What is my fear and the unanswered question is that either we are managing a pandemic due to that variety, or we have great limitations. There are no intermediate options due to the rapid spread,” said the scientist.
As a result, he said, it is still difficult to say when a reduction in quarantine restrictions can be expected.
“Until we rebuild the hospitals, we do not have systems to control the epidemic, the release would be a mistake. 2,000 people died from coronavirus last year. If we do not manage a pandemic, we will have similar figures this year. Can we afford it? “People’s lives seem more important to me,” added V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
Latest analysis shows signs of improvement
On January 7, the available data and its analysis were presented to the Government by its data analyst Aistis Šimaitis.
He wrote that the general situation shows some improvement in the dynamics of the pandemic.
“Summing up the situation, we see an improvement in some indicators of pandemic dynamics (number of cases per day, percentage of positive tests), but in 20 municipalities we still see an increase in these indicators. Mobility in the country has fallen since the first half of December, but is slightly higher than in spring. The number of critically ill patients in hospitals continues to grow, the growth of deaths from COVID-19 and also the growth of excess general mortality has slowed, but we still do not see a downward trend, “he wrote in the report.
A. Šimaitis noted that although the first signs of improvement are notable, it is still too early to assess them.
“Two weeks after the tightening of the quarantine, we have begun to see the first signs of impact and in the next 10 days we will be able to assess whether these trends are sustainable. If the decrease in the number of cases per day, the percentage of positive tests and the acceleration of the pandemic are sustainable and reflect the real situation, we should see the effect in hospitals next week, “he wrote last week.
1) Dynamics of cases and investigations: the percentage of positive cases and investigations in Lithuania has decreased, but we still have 20 municipalities where at least one of them is growing.
Analysis of the coronavirus situation in Lithuania on January 7.
© LRV
to. This week, we are registering fewer cases each day than in the previous 2-4 weeks. We have about 2000 and 14 new cases in 7 days. 100 thousand morbidity rate. the population is approximately 1,150.
second. The number of cases and the percentage of positive cases is decreasing in most municipalities. If the number of cases also decreased during the festive period due to fewer tests, then the decrease in the percentage of positive tests began to be observed only last week.
C. The acceleration of the pandemic in Lithuania is negative for 5 days, but it takes at least 10 to 14 days to confirm a sustainable trend; this is the maximum incubation period for COVID-19. In most municipalities we observe a decrease in the percentage of both cases and positive tests, but there are 20 municipalities where we still do not see this, that is, we continue to observe an increase in the percentage of cases and / or positive tests with respect to the 7 days before.
Analysis of the coronavirus situation in Lithuania on January 7.
© LRV
2) Mobility in the country is still significantly lower than in November, but, except during the festive period, it is above the spring level. According to Google, the time spent at home currently exceeds the spring number.
3) While the total number of patients in hospitals remains stable, the number of occupied treatment and resuscitation beds is growing and we are keeping records here this week. The number of critically ill patients in hospitals should begin to stabilize 10-14 days after the peak, and we can see this trend next week.
4) The number of deaths, both total and from COVID-19, has been stable for the past two weeks. The chart below compares the number of COVID-19 deaths by NSVC and ESPBI. Decreasing trends in cases will be reflected in death statistics approximately two to three weeks after peak cases.
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