Advisor to the President: Perhaps the peak of the pandemic is behind us, but there is still a long way to go to quarantine

Following the meeting, a remote press conference was held, in which, in addition to the Chief Advisor to the President and Head of the Economic and Social Policy Group, Simonas Krėpšta, three members of the Council of Health Experts also participated: prof. Mindaugas Stankūnas, prof. Aurelija Žvirblienė and prof. Kęstutis Petrikonis.

Cautious optimism

S. Krėpšta said that in regards to the development of the pandemic, we had a holiday period introducing so-called data noise: “It is not yet possible to conclude whether the situation is improving, but we see additional hopeful insights and the possibility of pandemic. Of course, it will need to be confirmed next week, at the end of the first non-holiday week, when we can have the normal number of tests and the normal scope of tests. “

He did not hide the positive knowledge that exists, but the situation remains difficult, with a huge hospital burden.

“There is still a long way to go before the discussion on the relaxation of the quarantine is considered,” said S. Krėpšta. – The positive news that perhaps the peak of the pandemic is already behind us, this week’s data has not yet been confirmed. But even if that’s the case, there is still a long way to go before the quarantine is relaxed. It is necessary to comply with the established requirements ”.

It would be a mistake to see it as a final improvement

Prof. Mindaugas Stankūnas also confirmed that there is good knowledge, but according to him it would be a big mistake to start thinking that the quarantine conditions can be relaxed.

He mentioned that the figures for the last few days look more optimistic, but only next week, Tuesday, Wednesday, can it be seen with greater precision.

“The number of new cases, about 2,700 being announced today, is a very large number, but it is possible that when we are close to four thousand, we will probably not see that number anymore,” said the professor.

He also referred to the measures proposed by the experts, which would be appropriate in one or another epidemiological situation, he thought that the stricter measures should have been applied as of October, but this only happened on December 15.

“Our forecasts, which were released on December 15, were quite accurate. We forecast about 65,000 for this Sunday. active cases, there were about 67 thousand of them. We made a small mistake, around 1.5 thousand, but we predicted quite accurately, “said M. Stankūnas.

So if the proposed plan is followed, we can end up in a better mood in January. And in October, the reaction was slow, said M. Stankūnas.

The best is a steady descent

The professor said that it could already be said with some caution that the peak in the past, the situation is improving, although the picture is clear – only in the next half of the week.

“I couldn’t name a specific number, but we would like to see a very clear downtrend, a good steady decline would be, the sharper, the bigger, the better for us,” said the professor on what the numbers would mean that the peak the pandemic was over. M.Stankūnas.

When asked how he appreciated the Church’s decision to resume worship with the people, S. Krėpšta welcomed the compliance with the established restrictions, and from next week in accordance with the procedure established by the Government. It is only necessary to comply with the established requirements.

Prof. M.Stankūnas stated that he had contacted the representatives of the Lithuanian Episcopal Conference, who consulted that the Lithuanian pastors take the figures and the situation very seriously, and that they consider FOR and AGAINST.

“I described the risks that even minimal efforts are very important to us in this case. It has been heard, I cannot comment on what decision has been made, but it has certainly been considered by all sides. I would see some risks, they are everywhere. I have expressed my fears to the Lithuanian bishops as far as I know, they are considering it today ”, said M. Stankūnas, confessing and advising that personal prayer would be more appropriate during this period.

Prof. Kęstutis Petrikonis also mentioned that, in his opinion, this month we should not go worshiping with people, but he also spoke about the psychological health of many people, which also needs to be evaluated.

Rapid tests required

Prof. Aurelija Žvirblienė stated that due to the significant increase in the scope of the investigation, rapid tests are necessary, the acquisition of which is still stalled for formal reasons. He also mentioned the need to carry out full genome studies of the virus, so that we do not miss the moment when a mutated virus from the United Kingdom or the Republic of South Africa enters the country, it is necessary to follow that path of spread.

So far, only isolated studies have been conducted on the modified spread of the virus, no cases have been recorded, but the professor said that she could not say that this is the case in all of Lithuania: the borders were not closed and the mutated virus spread. in the UK in September.

“Another question was about the need for serological tests. With the spread of infection in Lithuania in this way, we really know many cases where people get sick, when one family member gets infected, others are not necessarily going to be examined by molecular methods, even feeling the symptoms. Probably everyone in our environment knows it.

It is the serological tests that would show a relapse, a past infection, which would be of great help in this situation. We would know the real situation of the spread of the virus, because if not all people undergo PCR tests, the broader serological tests would give a much broader picture, in addition to providing our analysts with a tool for future forecasts, “he said. A.Žvirblienė.

The professor also recalled what was said Tuesday that sick people are protected from the virus for about half a year, just as much as vaccines do.

However, it is not true that sick people are discriminated against, on the contrary, it is not necessary to vaccinate them now. Data is only available about half a year after relapse, when new information, research becomes available, then the need to vaccinate relapsers will be decided later.

A.Žvirblienė mentioned the American study, in which about 3 million people who have a ten times lower risk of being infected a second time than those who do not have antibodies. And even when you are infected, you usually get an asymptomatic infection.

The most reliable figures are hospitalizations

Prof. Kęstutis Petrikonis stated that the most reliable figures we have, especially during the festive period, are on hospitalized patients: how many people ended up in hospitals, resuscitation, etc.

It is feared that the holidays, between holidays, could have a major impact on this, but the numbers are expected to stabilize and begin to decline. In the past, hospitals found about five percent of active diagnoses and now 3.5 percent. This, according to the professor, may indicate a decrease in those who need hospitalization, but it may also be the case that more patients are being treated at home.

The council formed by the president will withdraw from day-to-day business and conduct more scientific examinations, in addition to advising the president, and will meet less frequently.

“The Board of Experts will move away from operational action and focus more on long-term scientific issues. It will also help the president to prepare for the European Council meetings, where the issues of the pandemic will be discussed,” said S. Krėpšta.

Proposals for four quarantine restriction scenarios, measures to be taken, and principles for creating social support bubbles for each quarantine scenario were presented at the COVID-19 Management Meeting of the Independent Expert Advisory Council on Tuesday.

It has also been announced who will have priority in vaccinating COVID-19 and how long it will take to vaccinate first the doctors and then the general public.