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In the more moderate A scenario, most of the restrictions would be likely to be lifted. For such a scenario, it is necessary that the two-week morbidity rate in Lithuania does not exceed 25 cases per 100,000. population. Scenario D is currently valid, when the number of new cases is 100,000. the population exceeds 500 in 14 days.
Mindaugas Stankūnas, a professor at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, doubted that the situation would improve until January 31, when the current quarantine restrictions continue, so we can expect to go at least to scenario C and at least some relief from such restrictions.
The previous scenario would be possible with a morbidity rate of 14 days in more than 100 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. If this happened, it would be expected to maintain planned health care services, allow basic, secondary and primary education to take place in the classroom, periodically evaluate teachers and students, etc. You can find more information about the 4 scenarios here.
The Delfi portal spoke with Professor M. Stankūnas when it is possible to expect the release of quarantine restrictions and the implementation of a softer scenario.
Checkpoints in Kaunas
© DELFI / Nerijus Povilaitis
– Is at least scenario C expected to be fulfilled in Lithuania by January 31?
– I do not think so. It’s hard to predict, but I don’t think we’ll actually get to that third scenario on January 31, because we’re in a really bad situation right now.
– Will these current restrictions not work?
– I think they are already working. We will only have one meeting in the Presidency and we will discuss this. I think there are signs that the restrictions are taking effect. Of course, we still have to get “clean” data that is not affected by the holiday effect or anything like that. I think we will see this at the beginning of next week or at the end of this, but in terms of some first signs, we can see that the situation is stabilizing.
However, the current situation we are in is so bad that even when it starts to improve, it will still be bad because we are starting off from a very bad start.
Those measures are likely to work now, simply waiting a long way for the situation to improve. The prevailing opinion is that the restrictions should be lowered as soon as possible, but it is better not to rush too much, because early victory can lead to disappointment, we may have a third wave, and then it will be even more difficult. I think it would be difficult to expect that scenario C from February 1, unless we are well organized during the holidays and now all the measures are working perfectly. But those odds are not high.
– Also for companies, can’t you expect it to be published from February 1?
– I do not know. Now we only have January 6. What will happen on January 25 is still difficult to predict. The situation should improve. I even looked at the predictions the groups had made a month ago. They fill up very well. The error appeared in only about 1.5 thousand cases. When there are 48.2 thousand. cases, that error of 1,5 thousand cases is not much. According to forecasts, the situation at the end of January should be significantly better than it is now. But I think it will be a separate discussion if it will be so good that we can open restaurants or something else.
– When can the total release of quarantine restrictions be expected?
– I do not know yet. I don’t think anyone can name such a date precisely, because we still don’t know much about the current situation. The optimism is based on small numbers and elements: our mobility has decreased, the percentage of tests is stable, there are fewer positive tests, but so far we do few of those tests.
So far we are seeing small positive signs. Whatever the general picture that forms, it is very difficult to guess. You need to wait for a specific trend to emerge when you see a decline. Because now I can only name to a certain extent that the situation has stabilized, but that it is decreasing, so far we cannot say.
When the government of Saulius Skvernelis introduced the first restrictions on November 7, we had a very pleasant stabilization situation, even, for example, in terms of the effective reproductive number R, growth slowed down very well. And if that trend had continued, that decline would have continued into the second half of November.
But why after that the situation “bounced” and we even had up to 4 thousand. new cases per day, we need to look for deeper meanings: whether the measures were ineffective enough, whether people didn’t follow them as carefully, or something else, will be the subject of further discussions here.
Quarantine in Vilnius
– Should hospitals be in a better situation by the end of this month?
– I do not think so. But I think the situation should improve, even somewhere on my Facebook I wrote such a simplified sequence. The situation should change as follows: we are seeing a reduction in mobility; the decline in new cases continues; changes to a generally downward trend in active cases; the hospital care situation continues to improve and then we see a sustainable reduction in deaths. This should be a logical sequence.
I think it is already possible to see, if these trends continue, that mobility is actually reduced. We can see the first indications that, in reality, the situation with new cases is also in decline: on Tuesday 1,500 new cases were announced and close to 10,000 were carried out. tests. Thus, we can say that the number of new cases will also begin to decrease gradually. This will respond to active cases. There will be fewer people infected, of course, fewer will be hospitalized and that pressure on the hospital will decrease. That is the logic.
– Can a lighter third wave be expected, as many people have already gotten sick and coronavirus vaccination has started?
– Of course, these things should work. Overall, I think we should have learned lessons from the second wave and not repeated some things. I think there are a lot of lessons like this that you should try to learn because there really were mistakes, things that weren’t completely done and things like that.
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