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As Bloomberg observes, four decades after the war with Iraq, huge drawings of martyrs by Iranian soldiers still dominate the streets of the city. Streets, buildings, schools, parks, bridges are named after the dead soldiers.
The most paradoxical thing is that the ranks of these heroes are increasingly supplemented by newcomers who have been assassinated by the regime itself.
Family members of Iranians killed when regime missiles downed a Ukrainian airline airliner received calls from the Foundation for Martyrs and Veterans Affairs, controlled directly by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
„Reuters“ / „Scanpix“ nuotr./Ali Khamenei
The phone did not offer condolences or apologies, but rather congratulations on enriching the family with a “martyr.” Furthermore, Khamenei had previously stated that people who died during anti-government protests should also be considered martyrs.
Anxiety about a non-standard attack
Last week, the martyr worship machine rumbled at full capacity, commemorating the death of General Q. Soleimani, who was shot and killed in an American drone a year ago. This strategist was essentially “an instrument to spread terror” for A. Khamenei.
The memory of Q. Soleimani was mentioned both in drawings and in songs, and all ceremonies were carefully rehearsed. Both Iranian leaders and leaders of Tehran-affiliated factions in other parts of the Middle East pledged allegiance to the fallen hero and vowed to exact revenge on the Americans.
„Scanpix“ / AP nuotr./Qasemas Soleimani
Addressed directly to the first and only outgoing American president, Donald Trump. Esmail Ghaani, who replaced Mr. Solimani, threatened that “someone in his house” might take revenge.
Iranian chief justice Ebrahim Raisi, who is expected to replace Khamenei as supreme leader, in turn promised that those responsible for eliminating Solimani, including Trump, “will no longer feel safe.”
Finally, US officials responded to such threats and warned that Iran might indeed resort to revenge operations, not the first, but much more ambitious than a missile attack on military bases in Iraq where US troops were deployed.
US intelligence reported that Iranian-controlled militants in Iraq are stocked with advanced weapons, and one official said: “We believe they can move quickly from the planning stage to the execution. But such actions would not be seen as a standard attack. “
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Iranian soldiers
The world of intelligence is such that accusations don’t need evidence, so they are more like speculation; this time, too, US officials do not reveal what the words about the planned attack support.
Began to enrich uranium
It is already possible to speak of a kind of non-standard attack: on Monday, Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it had started enriching uranium to 20%. level. This is a further deviation from the commitments made in the 2015 international agreement.
In December, the conservative-dominated Iranian parliament passed a law to “lift sanctions and protect the interests of the Iranian people”, empowering the government of President Hassan Rouhani to “produce and store between 120 kg and 20%” . enriched uranium per year ”.
AFP / Scanpix photo / IAEA confirms that Iran will enrich uranium by up to 20 percent
An international agreement to enrich uranium only allows up to 3.67 percent. But up to 20 percent. Enriched uranium is suitable for use in an old research reactor in Tehran, dating back to 1967, and it is no longer very difficult to raise it to the 90% required for the production of nuclear weapons.
However, it is clear that Tehran began to stir in the field of nuclear energy in 2018, when US President Trump withdrew from the Iran agreement and announced a “maximum pressure” campaign.
Iran has notified the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it has begun enriching uranium to 20 percent. level.
By the way, both the EU countries and the UK, and apparently the elected administration of Joe Biden, who wants to talk to the Iranians, save the deal. But now Europeans are speaking out, and both Republicans and Democrats are concerned about America.
For example, US Defense Secretary Christopher Miller abruptly reversed the decision to send the USS Nimitz home to the Middle East on Sunday night.
Photo by Scanpix / The aircraft carrier Nimitz is the largest warship in the world
Currently, the famous aircraft carrier, which carries both fighter jets and offensive drones, is located near India, where it arrived from the operation off the coast of Somalia.
The oldest American warship of this type was involved in a failed operation in 1979 to command American hostages held in Tehran.
The Pentagon has also decided to send B-52 bombers to the region, reducing the number of personnel at the US embassy in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad. Iraq currently serves about 2.5 thousand people. American soldiers.
Stacks wins before negotiations
Militant groups linked to Iran have been accused in recent years of attacks on US diplomatic and military installations in Iraq. Suppose up to 21 rockets were fired at a US embassy after a month of silence.
It is true that, as if waiting for the departure of the Trump administration in Washington, the representatives of the groups operating in Iraq emphatically avoid escalating the situation in public. Missile strikes are even doomed, and the US embassy is not threatened any time soon.
“We will not enter the embassy of evil, we will not seek to overthrow the government. There is plenty of time for that, “said Hussain al-Hamidawi, secretary general of the Kataib Hezbollah group.
However, thousands of militants and their supporters in Baghdad commemorated the anniversary of Q. Soleimani’s death on Sunday. There were calls from the scene to expel American troops from Iraq, and anti-American songs were heard.
Tehran, on the other hand, threatens with one hand and tries to be more cautious with the other. For example, the uranium enrichment process at the Ford underground complex was closely monitored by IAEA inspectors.
AFP / Scanpix Photo / Iran Ford Complex
According to observers, Iran is clearly inspecting Biden and his team; Now it is really very interesting how the future president of the United States will act, having previously confirmed that he will seek to get Washington back to an agreement on Iran’s nuclear program.
“Uranium enrichment is an attempt to win a trump card prior to negotiations with the Biden administration and the EU, and to show contempt for Trump. But the move could easily be reversed,” Norman Roule, a former analyst for US intelligence on Iran.
Finally, any Iranian threat is rational to be considered a hoax. There has been no retaliation against Solimani, nor against Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the head of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, who was assassinated late last year, or the nuclear scientists who were eliminated a decade ago.
AFP / „Scanpix“ nuotr./Mohseno Fakhrizadeh atvaizdas Tehran
“The rhetoric is that the usual tricks, missiles, will not be enough. However, any attempt to invade the Americans will provoke a negative reaction from the world and you will lose hope of reaching an agreement with the Biden administration; after all, the United States will have to react with new sanctions.
Furthermore, Iran would lose the support of the Europeans and Russia and China would find themselves in an awkward position.
And Iran’s takeover of the South Korean oil tanker in the Persian Gulf will only enrage oil-hungry Asian economies, “said Bobby Gosh, a Bloomberg commentator.
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