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The scenarios presented by the experts are based on the number of new cases per 100,000. population in 14 days. Currently, the incidence of COVID-19 in Lithuania reaches 1,199 cases per 100,000. population in 14 days. This is the number of cases closest to Scenario D, which reveals the greatest restrictions, when the number of cases exceeds 500 cases per 100,000. population in 14 days,
With the improvement of epidemiological indicators and the decrease in the number of cases, Lithuania could expect a transition to scenario C, when the number of cases exceeds 100 cases per 100,000 cases. population in 14 days. In this case, part of the conditions of the quarantine regime would also be relaxed.
4 quarantine scenarios.
© LRV
What would change?
After Lithuania switched to Scenario C, basic, secondary and primary education would shift from distance to classrooms and take place directly in classrooms, applying periodic tests to teachers and students. At the local level, the possibility of stricter restrictions would also be left, depending on the epidemiological situation.
4 quarantine scenarios.
© LRV
Normal Preschool and preschool education would also take place in the form of contact. In this case, depending on the epidemiological situation in a particular place, certain restrictions may apply to preschool and preschool education.
Another change is unrestricted communication between the two households. If the number of cases exceeds 100 cases, 100 thousand. population within 14 days, contacts between more than two households would be prohibited, meaning that two households could communicate without restriction.
Residents can look forward to it too a wider range of planned medical services. If part of the planned medical care is currently limited to providing the necessary care and assistance to people with coronavirus, the planned medical services will be maintained as the number of illnesses decreases.
People who visit family members in social care institutions may also receive certain releases. If access to social care facilities is now allowed only in exceptional cases, then as epidemiological conditions improve, access would not be completely prohibited, but restricted.
Businesses could also expect change. Currently, only grocery, optical and veterinary stores operate. If the number of cases decreased and exceeded 100 cases instead of 500 cases, 100 thousand. population in 14 days, would allow normal trade not only of food, optical or veterinary products, by restricting the flow of customers at points of sale and by applying special service requirements, reducing the risk of infection.
In the case of Scenario C, higher education would continue to be delivered remotely, with exceptions in the areas of health, veterinary, and life sciences, and staff would be evaluated regularly.
The real situation will be clarified soon
Professor Ramunė Kalėdienė, dean of the Faculty of Public Health at the Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, told the Delfi portal that it is still difficult for researchers to more accurately predict how the incidence situation of the coronavirus will change in Lithuania.
“Currently, we do not see clear trends, because one day there are fewer cases, the next day, more. It depends on tests and holidays for the most part. We expect the general trend to continue this week and of course I am optimistic, because it seems to be going in the right direction.
Of course, expecting a significant reduction in our morbidity by January 31 is difficult, but seeing the decline in new cases, we can already think about, say, the introduction of support bubbles, which is very relevant for those households with one or more a disabled person. We can think of maybe that permission for two households to communicate, of course, under very strict conditions. I would not dare to expect such a great release at this time, “said the professor.
When asked to specify the strict conditions that would allow two households to communicate, R. Kalėdienė said that people need to have enough contact not to have contact, to make sure they are not sick, that is, to make sure they have not had contact with a sick or infected person.
The professor believes that vaccination against the coronavirus should also contribute significantly to improve the situation: situation.
The interlocutor also pointed out that the situation may improve because more people will be infected with the coronavirus: “The more people acquire immunity, the less they will become ill later. It’s natural”.
When can we fully relax?
Still, a sharp drop in cases is hardly expected on January 31.
“We can hope that those cases will really start to decline, because now people are really worried, they are in quarantine, I hope, for the most part. Although the number of cases is decreasing, it should not be thought that, although the number of cases has decreased, we can move to a scenario of total relaxation, such as the summer, because the experience is not favorable, ”said R. Kalėdienė.
When asked when complete relaxation could be expected, such as in the summer, the professor said:
“We wrote in the scenarios that you provided to the government that there should be no more than 4%. Positive evidence. Of course, we are still a long way from that scenario, but I hope we will gradually reach it.”
It is true that the card can confuse the new strains of the virus detected in the UK and South Africa.
“The virus is very insidious, unknown to us and very difficult to predict. Of course, each new variety brings new surprises. But let’s hope that even the new strains are sensitive to the vaccines created. In addition, we are used to being careful, we have realized how important this is and I see that society is really gradually reorienting itself towards the ability to coexist with this virus ”, said the professor.
At the same time, R. Kalėdienė assured: this pandemic is definitely not eternal and will end one day.
“The history of global epidemics shows that there was cholera, plague and flu in the world. We faced that. I think so. We just forgot a little about those threats,” said the interlocutor.
The latest data shows that the incidence in Lithuania is 100 thousand. population in the last 14 days reaches 1199.
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