After dramatic events in a small state, collective rage, and unstable dictatorial regimes: what’s next?

During the 26-year-old man’s birthplace, he was disappointed by the stories of his shocking move. Thousands of people in the country have also been humiliated by the contemptuous state and its officials. So they decided not to keep quiet.

As recalled by theguardian.com, within 18 days after Mr. Bouazizi’s act of protest on December 17, 2010. until his death on January 4. Tunisia began to experience the most serious unrest in decades, overthrowing the government of dictator Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali and finally forcing him to resign 10 days after the death of a street vendor. But much bigger changes are yet to come, as events in this small coastal state have sparked rebellions and uprisings in North Africa and the Middle East. The death of the crushed peddler became the cause of the collective rage that defined the entire period.

The protests soon turned into revolutions involving the region’s police states. In Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Libya and Syria, dictatorial regimes perceived as unshakable for life by citizens who have long suffered from them have suddenly turned into just vulnerable shells.

Having reached all corners of the region, the story of Mr Bouazizi about how he did not earn a euro a day, had to feed a family of eight and was defeated by despicable officials was close to the people.

Watching the impressive scenes of mass protests, it seemed that the driving force was not lacking, and the right to self-determination was already at hand. It seemed that the population could eventually participate in this process of self-determination, no matter how difficult or bloody the path might be.

Soon the process, famous in the name of the Arab Spring, became a tremendous shock, shaking off decades of stalemate and highlighting the power of the crowds pouring into the burning streets. And in the past it was thought that this mob did not have the same power as feudal dynasties and omnipotent authorities, used to treating their citizens as objects and constantly stifling their aspirations.

The surveys have benefited people’s ability to organize activities quickly, primarily through smartphones and easily accessible online applications. State security structures are easily bypassed in this way. Postcolonial regimes, such as Egypt and Libya, and later Syria, have faced particularly powerful challenges, where power has long been concentrated in a system of European colonial objectives that has not responded to the changing demographic situation.

Around 2010, the combination of all the circumstances made it much more difficult to maintain the status quo. Growing disparities in living standards, declining elite responsibility, and a rapidly growing troubled young generation with limited opportunities and even more limited rewards have led many to doubt that they have nothing to lose and can protest. bravely.

“These systems are designed to handle a specific demographic mix. They are not at all adaptable to demographic change, ”explains Dr, Principal Investigator at the Royal Joint Forces Institute. HA Hellyeris.

“In 2010, many such systems slipped through the seams, on the one hand trying to keep up with all the democratic changes in some way, and on the other hand trying to ensure that the distribution of wealth in the strata lower remains limited. Combine all of this with an ongoing autocratic agreement – “Don’t push us for political freedoms because we protect you from terrorism” – and you have a recipe for a perfect catastrophe, “says the scientist.

In mid-January, the ousted Tunisian dictator Z. el A. Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia and a revolution broke out in the streets of Egypt that overthrew the autocratic leader Hosni Mubarak, who ruled for four decades. Libya, ruled by Muammar Gaddafi for 40 years, has also started to roar. Similar processes took place in Syria, where Bashar al-Assad had assumed power from the region’s most strictly controlled police state left to him by his father Hafez. B. al-Assad now faced a real threat to the rule of the dynastic family.

In the case of the four regimes, the shell of the constitution and the institutions masks the true owner of power: the family, the party or the army.

As these regimes faltered, alarms began to sound in Saudi Arabia and Iran, which began to fear that their own people might perceive those in power, in the case of Tehran, for the second time in less than two years. .

US support for anti-regime protesters in Syria and Libya was seen by protesters in other states as a sign that their resistance will also receive support. Soon the uprising in Libya turned into a broader war, and Arab countries provided diplomatic support for military intervention to help rebel against Gaddafi, backed by France, the United States, the United Kingdom and Denmark.

Syria was also plunged into war that same year. Al-Assad’s army attacked protesters and opposition forces against him. In an interview with a Russian television channel in 2012, he warned: “If foreign forces invade Syria, its cost will be so high that the whole world will not lift it,” adding that the consequences of the collapse of the Syrian regime will be felt “from the Atlantic to the Pacific “. .

Eight years later, al-Assad is still in power in nominal terms. Russia, Iran and Turkey have made significant contributions to much of the country’s devastating conflict. This military conflict has also displaced almost half of the pre-war Syrian population out of the country or forced them to disperse around the world.

Egypt has also experienced unrest: Mubarak’s rule has come to an end, replaced by the brief and catastrophic reign of Islamic President Mohamed Morsi, followed by an overthrown military coup led by Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who became head of state. and restored security. structures and civic life severely restricted.

In both Syria and Egypt, the opposition in the first months of protests was constantly repressed. As a result, significantly more people are now detained for political reasons in security prisons in both countries than in 2011. at the beginning.

Human rights organizations describe the situation in both countries as intolerable and condemn the increasing number of detainees. They are often arrested for falsifying accusations and there are many cases of disappearances.

“From 2011. at the end we began to see signs. The essential thing that I noticed is that the affairs have always been handled by the army. From the beginning, when tanks destined to support the demonstrations appeared in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, many said:” None of that, they are on our side. “But I know who those people are and what they are, now they control everything,” says Nancy Okail, an Egyptian scientist and activist.

“At a time when the whole situation is unfolding, the West, especially the United States, said that the democracy plan must be followed and that both sides must abstain, as if the forces were equal. The message was:” I don’t know. worry, once you have a democratically elected president, it’s over, “added Okail.

In Syria, which, after nearly a decade of unrest, is still shattered and at odds, the potential unleashed in the early days of the revolution is nowhere to be seen. The effects of war and uprisings even after 2003 The US-led operations in Iraq have thrown the unrecovered region into confusion.

For many countries, the prospect of self-determination seems more distant than ever, and today’s world is completely different.

“The Iraq War and the Arab Spring sparked the ISIS movement and civil war in Syria, leading to a refugee crisis in Europe that contributed to the rise of populism in the West and the UK’s decision to withdraw from the European Union .

Reestablishing border controls to curb immigration was a key driver of Brexit. The Iraq war has also contributed to a decline in public confidence in experts and the government. In the post-Cold War period, the triumph that enveloped the United States faded in the Middle East. The Iraq war has become a catalyst. The fact that the bloodshed in Syria could not be stopped is proof of that, “said Emma Sky, former adviser to the US generals in Iraq.

According to HA Hellyer, regimes learned a little, “not necessarily from their own mistakes,” and realized they had two options.

“The first is to open up slowly or quickly and take on the long and difficult task of creating a sustainable 21st century. including the safety of its people and their rights. The second is to decide that even a small opening would mean that the population would overthrow the postcolonial elite. Therefore, to prevent this, it is simply necessary to strengthen control as much as possible and silence those who think otherwise ”, the researcher does not doubt.