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Even the most insightful analysts at the beginning of last year could not predict that for 2020. The unemployment rate in Lithuania will reach regrettable heights. By comparison, last year the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development projected that in 2020-2021 the unemployment rate in Lithuania would reach 5.9 percent. However, currently registered unemployment is already 15.5 percent.
Unemployment rate: at a level not seen in a decade
The unemployment rate in the country has now reached record highs: in November, registered unemployment surpassed 15%. The Employment Service notes that this was due to the influence of the quarantine.
“The decline in employment opportunities and people returning to the Employment Service after seasonal fall work, whose fixed-term employment contracts have expired or self-employment with commercial license has been completed, has led to a increase in registered unemployment in the country, “said the Employment Service.
December 1 266.6 thousand were registered in Lithuania. unemployed. This compares with the same period last year: 122.5 thousand. plus. Registered unemployment increased 7.1 percent during the year. point.
The last time such a high unemployment rate was recorded in Lithuania was in 2010. at the end of the year, when 265.3 thousand were recorded. unemployed.
„[Karantinas] – a difficult period for companies: issues of worker safety, job retention and downtime have become relevant. There are also conditions of uncertainty and uncertainty about how long the quarantine will last or if there will be orders. These circumstances reduced people’s willingness to engage in self-employment: 12 percent started business with business licenses in November. fewer people than in October ”, says the Employment Service.
During the eleven months of this year, 315,2 thousand were granted unemployed status. people – this is 29 percent. more than during the same period in 2019.
Likewise, the Employment Service indicates that on December 1. 71.3 thousand were registered as unemployed. people who, by 2020, March 1 were active in the labor market. Most of them (59.2 thousand) worked with indefinite employment contracts.
In November, 25.5 thousand people applied for the Employment Service. 8.8 percent of job applicants. more than in 2019. November.
It is true that it is still difficult to assess the impact of the second quarantine, which was introduced on November 7, on the labor market. The Employment Service presented November figures in mid-December, and December data will only be available in mid-January 2021.
Those who did not pay to work will not work
However, the president of the Lithuanian Employers’ Confederation (GDL), Danas Arlauskas, does not tend to evaluate these figures unambiguously. According to him, the unemployment statistics were distorted by the state benefit for people who were left without work due to the pandemic.
“I believe that now there is such artificial unemployment. The first thing to do is because they closed businesses that cannot function. Another thing was the hidden unemployed, who, when the support mechanism appeared, came out of hiding”, said D. Arlauskas to tv3.lt.
According to D. Arlauskas, before the pandemic in the labor market it was clear that there were almost as many job shortages as unemployed. He calls this phenomenon an unemployment trap. And, in his opinion, these situations will not change even with the increase in the monthly minimum wage (MMA) from 607 to 642 euros next year.
“The unemployed people who, for one reason or another, were not paid to go to work. This is called the unemployment trap because it doesn’t pay – the total benefit is higher than the MMA. Now that MMA has increased slightly, will this fundamentally change the situation in the job trap? I doubt it, ”said D. Arlauskas.
It is important to retrain
However, he sees that Lithuania has now entered a dangerous stage. According to D. Arlauskas, some of the people who lost their jobs during the pandemic will not be able to find work because their previous jobs were simply ruined.
“It just came to our attention then. State policy is very important in this place. It is good that here those supports for downtime, guarantees, soft loans. But our future will be determined by the rapid retraining of people who have lost their job.
I do not understand why the state could not now launch a universal learning project through national radio, television, commercial channels. Learn IT, learn foreign languages, financial knowledge. We have a very good chance with our current internet connection and people are sitting around saying how hard I can’t get out. We have to start training them, ”suggested D. Arlauskas.
As the LKD president is considering, the unemployed could receive benefits if they participated in special recycling programs.
“Without financial support, we provide educational support. I don’t see any other way out. Because if we don’t do that, there will be 300 thousand. They will continue to be the unemployed. And then the question will be if our social package will be able to get everyone out. We will develop businesses, but people always they have been further away, the more their importance is acquired in the labor market ”, emphasized D. Arlauskas.
It’s still hard to find work
Job posting pages also saw a negative trend in the job market due to the quarantine and the Covid-19 pandemic. According to Rita Karavaitienė, Marketing Director of CV-Online, in 2020 the labor market experienced quite pronounced fluctuations.
“The first quarantine began in mid-March, and from here we began to register changes in the labor market that were completely different from the usual year. In March, companies announced 30 percent. fewer job offers than in 2019. March, April – 6 percent. less than in April 2019, ”wrote R. Karavaitienė in reply to tv3.lt.
Although the search for seasonal workers usually begins in April, the need for them was much less this year and the summer work season only started in July. According to R. Karavaitienė, the summer work season was basically missed this year, young people lost the opportunity to earn money.
“During the first quarantine, both companies and employees looking for work were surrounded by uncertainty, and both the search for employees and the search for work were quite slow. The sectors most affected by the quarantine were tourism, hotels, restaurants and services, and it was in these areas where the number of job offers decreased significantly, ”said the specialist.
The most active months for labor supply and demand are January, April, May and September, but this year the highest activity was registered in January, July and October.
“In November, the smallest difference between job offers was achieved compared to this year and last year, only 8% was announced in November. fewer job offers than in November last year, “noted R. Karavaitienė.
However, as the quarantine eased and companies adapted to the new reality, the number of job openings began to grow gradually in late May.
“Companies that gained momentum during the second quarantine posted new job offers and job seekers were much bolder in their search for work. However, it is not so easy to find work at the moment, because among the job offers there are jobs that require a medium, high qualification, experience and specific skills required for the job, ”said R. Karavaitienė.
Most affected areas
The first quarantine significantly eroded many areas. According to R. Karavaitienė, the number of job offers in the following employment areas has been cut in half: electronics, telecommunications (50%), media / public relations (80%), marketing / advertising (76%), sales (69%), tourism / hotels (64%), banking / insurance (60%), finance / accounting (55%), health / social assistance (51%), commerce and human resources (50% each).
“However, with the easing of quarantine conditions, the number of job openings for sales, finance, banking, insurance and electronics employees has started to rise quite rapidly. Currently, most job openings are for IT, production, finance, engineering, sales, banking, customer service and transportation employees, ”said R. Karavaitienė.
He also notes that job seekers are now primarily interested in job opportunities at home.
“Among the most popular areas for job seekers are law, finance, human resources, marketing, organization management, administration and information technology,” said the specialist.
It is true that workers from third countries also had problems, as their access to Lithuania was interrupted during the quarantine. According to R. Karavaitienė, signs have been heard that the shortage of these employees may lead to higher prices for services in some places.
“Employees from third countries often worked in the transport and construction sectors. The quarantine has also thrown this area of the labor market out of balance, and companies are already mentioning that a shortage of third-country workers may lead to higher prices for services, ”wrote R. Karavaitienė.
What will change in the near future?
It is difficult to predict when and how the Lithuanian job market will return to its old ways. However, the President of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania, Danas Arlauskas, states that after the end of the pandemic, we will definitely see changes in our work.
“They say that the world will change, it will be distant. I don’t think it’s remote. A person has to see himself in a certain hierarchy, he has to communicate. The man is not a robot that can work remotely. I think we will go to such a mixed version, we will still have to speak once or twice a week ”, commented D. Arlauskas.
He believes that part-time telecommuting will save time and resources for residents, as well as businesses, such as renting smaller offices.
From 2021 the job search allowance will be € 212 per month.
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