Rich countries have swept up coronavirus vaccines in advance: what’s left for poorer countries?

The numbers speak volumes. Many poor countries will be able to vaccinate a maximum of 20% of their population by 2021, and the richest countries in the world have already purchased enough doses to vaccinate populations several times.

Wealthy states bought or reserved large quantities of vaccines even at a time when there was no guarantee that specific formulas would be effective.

But if all those doses are administered, the European Union will be able to vaccinate its members twice, the United Kingdom and the United States four times and Canada six times. This is demonstrated by the analysis of the vaccine procurement contracts.

Dosage: much more than necessary

“High-wage countries stormed the front line and emptied the shelves,” said Andrea Taylor, a researcher at Djuka University.

Of course the logic is. Suppose the US spent billions of dollars researching, developing, and producing the five most promising vaccines; enough money was spent to run at lightning speed. But that support was provided on one very important condition: that Americans be the first to receive vaccines made in the United States.

Other rich countries quickly joined the Americans with advance orders, often also concerned about the right to extend the deal.

The United States, for example, has set aside $ 100 million. dose of Pfizer, but has the right to buy another $ 500 million. Washington also ordered $ 200 million. Modern vaccine doses with an option to purchase another 300 million.

Production is limited, so poor countries may not be able to fully immunize the population until 2024.

Another 810 million. Total doses were ordered from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson, Novavax, and Sanofi. Additional conditions mean that a total of about 1.5 billion doses were ordered.

The United Kingdom has commissioned 357 million euros from all these companies. dose of coronavirus vaccine. The opportunity to buy another 152 million. dose.

The figure for the European Union is 1.3 billion. dose and the right to buy 660 million. additional doses. Almost all these vaccines consist of two vaccines, between which you have to wait.

How quickly rich countries will receive the required number of vaccines depends on their approval. The Pfizer vaccine, developed in collaboration with BioNTech, has already been approved in the United Kingdom, Bahrain, Canada, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and the United States.

The Moderna vaccine will also be approved in the US in the coming days, and the UK, India, and several other countries will soon give the green light to the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Either way, the outlook for much of the poorest world is bleak. Production is limited, so poor countries may not be able to fully immunize the population until 2024.

The initiative is beautiful, but is it feasible?

It is true that not all poor countries will face problems; some have dealt with large doses of the vaccine because they have been able to convince pharmacists that the pharmaceutical industry will really recover.

One such country is India, which will produce the largest number of vaccine doses next year. The Indian Serum Institute, which has contributed to the development of the AstraZeneca and Novavax vaccines, has promised Delhi that it will deliver exactly half of the doses that will be produced.

“India is a priority because India is my homeland,” said Adaras Poonawalla, director of the company, who called the institute.

150 million for Latin America The doses of the vaccine will be bought by the Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim, who has instructed his factories in Argentina and Mexico to get to work.

The AstraZeneca vaccine, by the way, is great for poorer countries because it is cheaper and easier to store. A total of 3.210 million doses of this vaccine were ordered. – significantly more than other companies, and half of the doses will travel to poor countries.

“India is a priority because India is my homeland,” said Adaras Poonawalla, director of the company, who called the institute.

Johnson & Johnson is developing a single-shot vaccine. It is also suitable for the developing world, for which this company has promised at least 500 thousand. dose. China also promises to supply those countries with its own vaccines.

Finally, there is the businessman and philanthropist Bill Gates, who, in conjunction with the World Health Organization, has launched an initiative to deliver 1 billion doses of the coronavirus vaccine to 92 poor countries. Another billion would go to the richest states.

This initiative is called COVAX and it also has the support of France and the European Commission. Their goal is to ensure that vaccines with proven efficacy and safety are available to all countries, not just the wealthy.

But until now, raising money has been difficult. Even if successful, a billion doses would be less than 20 percent. people in poor countries.

Press releases and reality

While wealthy states have reserved most of the vaccines, they will have to queue. No country will receive all the requested doses, including Lithuania, which should reach just 9,750 doses of vaccine by the end of December. They would be enough for less than 5,000. people.

“We just realized that 100 million. It doesn’t mean 100 million will come in December,” said Kendall Hoyt, professor of medicine at Dartmouth University.

The vaccine delivery schedule mentioned by the companies in the contracts is not the same. Some announce publicly that the doses will arrive in early 2021, but other reports are more elegant and, because the contracts are private, it is not easy for governments and societies to form expectations.

Some critics find it abnormal that the global supply of COVID-19 vaccines is dependent on the content of confidential contracts.

A good example is the Pfizer vaccine, which is expected to produce 1.3 billion doses over the next year. The United States government bought 100 million. dose, but the company soon informed the Americans that it would have to wait until June, such a contract.

And while Pfizer’s vaccines have already reached the UK, Canada and the US, it is unclear when their doses will arrive in other countries. Suppose Mexico has to wait up to a year.

Clemens Auer, the EU’s main negotiator for the delivery of the vaccines, says the Community’s agreement with Pfizer the doses are strictly timed. But it still hides specific information.

Canada is unhappy with Moderna vaccines. Party agreement at 20 million. The doses arrived in August, and the Americans, the British and the EU only announced a contract with Moderna later.

So when Moderna recently announced that the first 20 million. The doses will go to the United States, Canadian politicians have received harsh criticism from the population, why did they leave the queue? But it was not widely known at the time that Moderna had to promise the first doses in the United States in exchange for financial support.

The worst scenario is to vaccinate the entire population of the country without first offering the vaccine to high-risk groups in other countries.

Finally, companies’ own calculations are changing. Pfizer initially announced that it would produce $ 100 million by the end of the year. vaccine dose, but then halved the numberand Novavax had to postpone clinical trials due to missing doses.

For its part, AstraZeneca has agreed to sell $ 3,210 million. doses of vaccine, but so far only 2.86 billion have been agreed. dose production.

And in addition, there are more and more calls to rich countries not to save vaccines for those states that do not have so much money. It is suggested not to rush to vaccinate your population, so that the doses are sufficient for the developing world.

“The worst case scenario is to vaccinate the entire population of the country without first offering the vaccine to high-risk groups in other countries,” said Bruce Aylward, WHO deputy director general.