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Last week, the media announced that Kadyrov, 43, was hospitalized in Moscow on suspicion of COVID-19.
Five days after Kadyrov’s silence and speculation on the Internet, a channel subordinate to the regional government released the video. Kadyrov, who attends a meeting with government officials in Grozny, reports on Radio Free Europe (RL / RFE).
After the video was released, Russian experts analyzed his behavior and appearance, looking for clues to his health. Internet speculation was only fueled by a catheter-like object. Kadyrov was not wearing a mask.
TASS photo / Ramzan Kadyrov visits the Grozny Hospital for COVID-19
Renowned journalist for the “Novaya Gazeta” newspaper, Jelena Milashina, wrote that R. Kadyrov seemed to suffer from a complex illness: he looked pale, thin, with a swollen face and the leader seemed to be out of breath.
Alexei Malashenko, an expert from North and Central Asia, also said he thought Kadyrov looked ill. His assumption is that the Chechen leader’s illness is serious.
For those who follow the policies of the North Caucasus and the Kremlin, the most important thing is not whether Kadyrov was really seriously ill, but what will happen to Chechnya when its leader finally leaves office, writes RL / RFE.
“It just caught our eye then. “People have different experiences with Kadyrov, but they are all concerned about his disappearance and what will happen next,” said prominent human rights activist Svetlana Ganushkina.
VIDEO: Boxing training R. Kadyrov
Furthermore, it is for the second time in the last five months, when Kadyrov disappeared. And for his enemies in the Kremlin and elsewhere, this is another reason to plan what will happen to Chechnya after Kadyrov’s departure.
“Ramzan is a source of great annoyance in a segment of Russia’s political elite,” Malashenko told RL / RFE. “He is bored at the Federal Center, but nobody knows what the alternative will be.”
Quechenization strategy
The Second Chechen War coincided with President Vladimir Putin’s first term. His strategy to fight the Chechen rebels and Islamists was called “Chechenization”. In essence, this meant allowing Chechen forces to defeat the rebels.
Mufti Akhmad Kadyrov, who led the fight against Russian government forces during the First War, was appointed political leader to carry out the “Chechenization”. He was elected president of the region in 2003, but was killed seven months later by the explosion of a bomb.
In 2007, her youngest son, Ramzan, was named leader of Chechnya.
Generous federal funds to revive the economy, reduce unemployment, and buy the loyalty of the Chechen elite have become part of Chechnya, writes RL / RFE.
After the elections, Kadyrov led the reconstruction of the capital, which was bombed during the war, and unemployment fell, although most of the work belonged to the public sector.
TASS photo / plush
Kadyrov also created a paramilitary force called Kadyrovts, which became the Chechen leader’s personal army. The forces are accused of persistent human rights abuses, including kidnapping, murder, and collective punishment.
According to experts, Kadyrov’s political future has not been the subject of serious discussions until this year.
In April, when Russia tried to stop the spread of the coronavirus, Kadyrov ordered Chechnya’s borders with the rest of Russia to be closed. This led to unusual criticism from Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
According to Malashenko, Kadyrov’s brief disappearance in January means that discussions about the future of the Chechen leader are now more relevant in the Kremlin than before.
Personality policy
Kadyrov’s survival in power can be explained by his personal relationship with President Putin. Granting autonomy to R. Kadyrov is said to have enabled Chechnya to become his personal enmity.
According to Malashenko, “the people who come to power in Moscow are tired of these informal relationships.”
“It just caught our eye then. But no one knows who will replace him.” There will be instability, but there will be no separatism, a civil war is unlikely to break out. However, there will be serious instability, “Malashenko told RL / RFE.
Reuters / Scanpix photo / Vladimir Putin and Ramzan Kadyrov
According to Ganushina, the problem is that the Kremlin allowed Kadyrov to rule Chechnya freely, without any serious challenge and without planning to rally the leadership around someone else.
According to her, Chechens may be tired of Kadyrov, fear him, but they also don’t want war and chaos to return.
“Kadyrov has absolute power, even in medical decision-making. All decisions depend on him alone. His withdrawal could be part of the chaos, and there is no way of knowing what it would be. This is a typical situation for dictators,” he said. S. Ganuškina RL / RFE.
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