Lithuania has not yet undergone such a test: specialists agree: life after quarantine will no longer be the same

Although sales of alcohol during the quarantine did not increase in Lithuania, ambulance doctors said they had not seen poisonings like the ones they had seen over the Easter weekend for a long time. Police officers record surviving violence in the immediate area. Thousands of people have lost their jobs and income.

What will our lives be like after quarantine? Will this period affect crime rates, addictions, will we still want to shop and will there be something to buy? This was discussed in Delfi 11 with the VU professor criminologist and sociologist Aleksandrs Dobrynins, the psychiatrist-psychotherapist Raimundas Alekna and the head of the Luminor Bank. economist, doctor of social sciences Sigismund Maurice.

The world will no longer be what it used to be

Economist Ž. Maurice stated on the show that the world after the pandemic will no longer be as before.

“The key changes will be working from home, which is what we are doing successfully right now. Another change will involve the delivery of goods and services to the home. In other words, the house will become the epicenter of all economic activity.

Side effects will involve contactless billing and automation of production processes, robotization, and consumer awareness. This is to avoid a repeat of scenarios when supply chains are stagnant, ”said Ž. Mauricas

According to the economist, some of those changes will remain for a long time.

“We will not go back to where we used to be, and that will change our economy in the coming decades. The side effects will be very high. For example, if more people work from home, there will be less congestion in the mornings and afternoons. Perhaps transportation will will organize differently.

If we are talking about a greater delivery of goods to the home or closer to home, then it is also a large industry that is still taking its first steps, especially in Lithuania. There will be a lot of collection services, courier services will become a priority, and possibly part of those services will be automated, ”Ž said. Mauricas

We will buy more online

The economist predicted that even after the restrictions, we would buy more online.

“People are very used to repetitive actions. Let’s suppose that now, after spending a lot of time at home, surfing the Internet, using those remote channels, they are already forming their shopping carts, reminding companies that they provide convenient access and a convenient way to shop, compare prices, even provide product reviews.

Later, at the end of the quarantine, all of this will remain in their browsers, and in case of any inconvenience in the future, (…) he will say, “and why should I go to the stores? Better to buy remotely “, – said Ž. Mauricas

According to him, those existing changes will lead to other changes.

“When it comes to working from home, people will begin to appreciate the quality of their living environment, they will try to install a work room as much as possible so that strangers do not interfere. If this becomes the norm, housing demand will also increase, providing opportunities to work from home, “Ž said. Mauricas

People go through mourning

Psychiatrist R. Alekna described the current situation as a collective grief that we experienced after losing the stability to which we were accustomed.

“It just came to our attention then. After the duel begins the birth of a new existence and its evolution. As already mentioned by Ž. Maurice, we will not have the situation as it was,” said R. Alekna.

According to the specialist, there is a certain separation: the loss of connection with the existing situation.

“There are several risks in the separation phase. If a person has psychological problems, and if there is a society where most have more complex psychological problems, that separation can be prolonged and lead to passive behavior. And he is the most dangerous, because then there is nothing to do, trying to wait, something is expected to be done instead: the government will give money, fix the situation and not be personally responsible for dealing with the situation, “he said R. Alekna.

According to the psychiatrist, in this case there is a risk that there is a greater probability of somatic illnesses caused by violence, suicide, mental and stress.

The behavior will depend on what stage of grief people are in

Speaking about the grief process, the specialist mentioned that it has five stages: denial, anger, sadness, negotiation and reconciliation, and acceptance of change.

“Depending on the stage in which the majority of the public is, so will their behavior. For example, if we are currently in the denial phase, we do not understand what is happening, we have lived a lot, we underestimated the risks, after a In time, when we are faced with more facts that are unacceptable to us, there will be anger, guilt, and perhaps a depressed mood. ” Mr. Alekna spoke.

At the same time, the specialist stressed that the mourning process is natural and will not lead to more suicides, alcoholism in a healthy part of society. But for those who have had problems, they will get worse.

“After the sad phase, there will come a time when we will begin to consider how to adapt to the new situation. Then we will reconcile and accept the change. Normal life will begin again: no longer as it was, we will have a new being, where we will have to be completely different in terms of quality.

Depending on how we go through these stages of development will depend on how long and what kind of society we have. We can also have a stronger and more stable society, which is more like the societies of the Scandinavian countries, where there is less anger, aggression, more cooperation and responsibility of the representatives of the society, not only waiting for the government to give something ”, R. Alekna said.

Worried about buying more

Sociologist prof. A. Dobrynin called the current situation an adaptation. When social groups adapt to certain conditions.

“It is biologically programmed that we are focused primarily on survival, on the survival of the individual, and at the same time we are focused on group survival, that is, the survival of species,” said Dobrynin.

Continuing, the sociologist said that in this way the tendency of people to buy is programmed.

“When we buy, we feel safe, we can ensure our existence, and in this way we seem to calm down. We can talk about shopping as an addiction, but like other forms of addiction, it performs a certain psychological function. Relieve stress, anxiety about your existence.

In other words, if a person is worried, if he believes that there will be no way to survive, how to feed or feed his family, he is looking for solutions. Buying creates a situation where a person tries to convince himself that “there is nothing terrible here,” said A. Dobrynin.

According to the sociologist, whether people will fall into stores after the crisis will also depend on how they feel.

“If they feel that their lives are assured by social institutions, the government guarantees their safety, perhaps there will be no influx. But if there is anxiety that something is missing, some promises will not be kept, then we will see again how we have seen more than one thing sweeping things off the shelves, ”said A. Dobrynin.

Residents have already started saving more

The economist who participated in the program said that the consumption habits of the population change during crises. In the first months, the demand for basic needs, especially food and durable goods, is growing.

“Later, due to the general economic downturn, people are abandoning the need for goods and services. The economy will change and long enough. (…) Those activities, services, goods that were more luxurious or nonessential, became will be more affected.

The change is already taking place in households, there is a significant increase in the savings rate, as households fear falling below the poverty line and will not have the financial resources to meet even the most basic needs, “said Ž Mauricas

According to the economist, a situation in which the savings rate increases sharply and overall consumption decreases is the greatest threat to the economy itself.

“The economy is like a bicycle, whenever someone mentions it, then they ride. If everyone saves, that bike starts to meander and falls. When it falls, increasing it costs significantly more effort and amounts of money. That process of falling is often out of control.

At the time of the fall, or when that bicycle begins to wander, some observe how to save themselves, others: how to save everyone, the state is also putting its accents. Some people will go unnoticed, which will pose a certain threat to the stability of society, “said Ž. Mauricas

According to the economist, there is likely to be an increase in the number of people who have suffered and been forgotten enough.

“You know, when everyone’s eyes are on putting out a blazing fire, it certainly won’t be enough for everyone.” Now it is important that people provide such assistance not only through official state institutions, but also in neighborhoods, so that as few people as possible remain somewhere on the margins, ”Ž. Mauricas

The overall picture of poverty will change

The economist predicted that the overall picture of poverty would change in such a situation.

“The people most affected will be freelancers, who are unable to operate due to the restrictions imposed or whose incomes have decreased significantly due to changes in consumption patterns. Also, those who will lose their jobs, especially those who are raising children.

2009-2010 there was a greater possibility of emigrating. These opportunities will now be less, both due to movement restrictions and the reluctance of countries to admit large numbers of migrants. We will have to solve problems within our country, and it will be much more difficult than in 2009-2010, “said Ž. Mauricas

According to the economist, the risks will be similar to those of 2009-2010.

“Only instead of emigrating, we will see perhaps a higher level of crime, perhaps a higher level of certain addictions, a tendency to self-harm, because, unlike 2009-2010, we will not be able to export most of those problems.” Mauricas

According to the expert, this will be a great exam for Lithuania, both economically and socially.

First, give up more expensive goods

When asked which residents will surrender first, the economist predicted that people would be more cautious in choosing more expensive services or goods.

“With the general economic downturn, I don’t think restaurants that provide expensive services will see a rapid enough return to pre-crisis levels. Also, more expensive trips, possibly spa services. These are things that cost several tens or even hundreds of euros. Car sales, especially new ones, are declining significantly and are recovering only after a long time, “Ž said. Mauricas

The economist clarified that when he spoke for a long time, he was referring to the middle of next year, or even later.

The number of murders has increased.

Speaking about the crime situation, sociologist A. Dobrynin noted that reports from various countries attest that overall crime statistics are improving during quarantine. In the United Kingdom, the United States reported an overall crime rate of up to 20%.

The sociologist attributes this to the fact that at a time when people are isolating themselves in their homes, home security is increasing. However, he drew attention to the details of Lithuania. We are unique in the European Union in terms of the number of violent crimes and murders.

In Lithuania, the quarantine began on March 16. A total of four murders were recorded in Lithuania during the fight. The first, on March 17. By April 18, eight murders had already been recorded. 2019 we only had one murder in the period from April 1 to 18. 2018 there were no murders at all during that period.

The professor said he was not yet able to make scientific generalizations because more detailed data was needed, but that the trends were clear. Previous studies have shown that people are more likely to commit homicide in a closed environment, with alcohol being the most common factor.

The professor also discussed the risks associated with potentially increasing unemployment. Studies in Norway have shown that when several young people lose their jobs, the crime rate in that group increases.

“Those crimes may be related to theft, robbery, aggressive behavior. Criminologists are particularly concerned that among those young people there will be a large number of those who have good information technology skills. The level of cybercrime may increase. This is a serious challenge, considering that the future economy will be more of an electronic economy, “said A. Dobrynin.

Emotional eating can also cause problems.

Psychiatrist R. Alekna did not rule out that, under stressful conditions, there may be an increase in the number of people who have had psychological problems in the past, as well as those who consume alcohol in a harmful way, which can lead to addiction.

“Addiction is a systemic thing. (…) Family members also have psychological problems, and this disorder can encourage their use. This results in a vicious find. Under such conditions, the need for help for people in such a situation increases. It is a problem that few of them want help, “said R. Alekna.

At the same time, the psychiatrist agreed that emotional feeding problems could occur during this period.

“If a person is experiencing stress, then, among the stress hormones is insulin, which causes a feeling of hunger, the person suppresses that hunger. Then there is an increase in diet, an increase in the need to eat unhealthy, carbohydrate-saturated foods to suppress the feeling of hunger. At the same time, a person does not have the ability to burn calories. There is a risk of obesity and diabetes, “said R. Alekna.