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According to Anders Tegnell, the country’s lead epidemiologist, it is still unclear to what extent the virus transmission rate declines as more people become infected. This is “very difficult” to understand, he said in an interview after the press conference.
The epidemiologist’s doubts about immunity were reinforced by the second wave of coronavirus that began in the fall. In both Sweden and other countries in the northern hemisphere, the incidence of transmission began to increase rapidly after the end of summer.
The so-called herd immunity is formed when a sufficient number of community members get sick or get vaccinated against a disease and gain immunity. In the case of COVID-19, 55-82% must be sick or vaccinated. populations.
Data released by the Swedish National Health Agency in June showed that around 10% of COVID-19 antibodies were formed in the blood of the population of Stockholm, the city most affected by coronavirus in the country.
According to last week’s information, the Stockholm area, home to 2.4 million people, people, confirmed more than 70 thousand. cases, and after numerous antibody tests, nearly 100,000. the results are positive.
“Obviously, herd immunity slows down transmission, but it is difficult to understand the extent of the effect and how it should be assessed in relation to the factors that accelerate transmission,” Tegnell said. The balance “may be different from what I and many others think.”
When the pandemic broke out, Sweden shocked the world by avoiding quarantine. The country relied primarily on voluntary action to enforce physical distance. Unfortunately, as a result of this strategy, mortality has far exceeded that of other Nordic countries, and the Swedish government has recently recognized the need for stricter measures.
“The second wave of coronavirus in Sweden started later. Based on December 1. According to published data, the number of new cases continues to rise, but in other European countries the transmission rate appears to be decreasing. The increasing number of hospitalizations and the increase in mortality from COVID-19 also show that the pandemic in Sweden has become more severe, ”said economist and researcher Johanna Jeansson.
Although Sweden has never publicly stated that its target is herd immunity, officials have made it clear that they expect some form of immunity that will limit the spread of COVID-19.
According to Tegnell, the level of resilience is also difficult to predict due to the erroneous assumptions that prevailed at the beginning of the pandemic that significantly more people were infected than indicated in official statistics.
“From the beginning, we have tried to minimize the transmission of infection by taking measures that have the least negative impact on public health,” Tegnell said. “We will continue to do so.”
Swedes are losing faith in the COVID-19 strategy
Swedish confidence in the country’s strategy to fight the coronavirus pandemic is waning, and concerns about health care system options are now almost universal.
A DN / Ipsos poll released last Thursday found that 82 percent of Swedes are “somewhat” or “very concerned” about how their healthcare system will meet the challenge.
Only 42 percent trust the government’s ability to control the virus. although in October this indicator reached 55%. Meanwhile, 44 percent. Swedes are concerned that authorities are not making enough efforts to combat the virus, compared to 31% in Sweden. last month.
Sweden’s decision to waive the quarantine has been controversial from the start, coinciding with a significantly higher mortality rate than in neighboring countries. After a relatively quiet summer, the number of cases increases every day and hospitals fill up quickly.
November 26 was just over 70 percent occupied. Swedish intensive care beds: 220 of those patients had Covid-19. There are a total of 642 intensive care beds in the country, although there is room for capacity building if needed, health authorities say.
“It is clear that the increase in infection rates, combined with the measures taken by the authorities, has greatly increased concern,” said Nicklas Callebring, an analyst at Ipsos.
At a press conference co-hosted by Prime Minister Stefan Lofven on Thursday, Johan Carlson, director general of the Swedish Public Health Agency, presented slides showing that the number of cases per day in December could approach 8,000.
In Sweden, an average of around 4,700 new cases per day was recorded last week. Carlson said he predicted the virus would peak in December.
The National Statistics Agency announced earlier this week that the effects of the Covid crisis in Sweden will reduce life expectancy after nearly a century of continuous growth.
In a new OECD study, Sweden consistently ranks among the worst-hit European countries in terms of relative Covid infection and mortality rates. It was also the slowest in terms of transfer management.
“During the third wave, the health care system will be even more tense than before,” said Thomas Linden, department head of the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare.
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