Russia’s shameful failure in Libya: Lithuania can also feel the consequences of a long-running conflict

05/29/2020 Lithuania, World



[ad_1]

Already on May 19, British and American diplomats at the United Nations (UN) publicly called on Russia to stop fueling the conflict in Libya, where hundreds of Russian mercenaries were officially recognized there. The Kremlin has long denied involvement in the Libyan conflict, officially known as the Second Civil War, which has been going on since 2014.

The UN-recognized but Islamist-dominated government has been severely repressed in recent months by forces backed by Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, directly or through intermediaries, led by defeated Khalifa Haftar in victorious place.

But then there was information about the regular failures of this military leader and his allies, the hasty withdrawal of Russian mercenaries from Libya, and then videos of the attacks by the Russian private military company Vagner, which were rushing out of the country.

Finally, the United States, of which it was rumored for a week that Russia had deployed its aircraft in Libya, fighter jets and attack jets, had been publicly confirmed by the photos. They captured the Russian Mig-29, Su-24, Su-34 and Su-35 planes, initially relocated to Syria, with some of the repainted planes without distinctive signs deployed in Libya.

What matters is not just the fact itself or the fact that the United States not only saw and decided to expose these Kremlin lies, but also the tone of the statement chosen by Washington and a more detailed picture of such events. At first glance, the distant and confusing conflict in Libya, in which several states are involved, can only affect the countries of the region and those involved in them. However, signals from the US USA They show that the Russian game was much more complicated and dangerous, and its consequences can also be felt in the Baltic region.

The Russian lie was revealed in the photos.

“This report is based on unverified information and falsified data designed to discredit Russia’s policy in Libya. Much of that data, especially on Russian citizens, is unfounded. There are no Russian troops in Libya,” replied Russian Ambassador Vasily Nebenzia on May 19 in response to a UN report confirming the involvement of Russian mercenaries from the infamous Vagner company in the Libyan civil war.

But he lied. From May 12 to 14, Mig-29 fighters began to rise from the Russian base near Astrakhan, arriving in Syria, Russia’s main base in the country, Hmeimin, with a stop in Iran. From here, on May 18, a convoy of planes took off and turned towards Libya.

But he was not the only one in the air. Near Syria, US reconnaissance aircraft. The US, Israel, and other countries constantly rotate in international airspace, constantly monitoring what happens at the base of Russian soldiers.

Russia's shameful failure in Libya: Lithuania can also feel the consequences of a long-running conflict

© USA AFRICOM

This generation was no exception: Publicly available data shows that at an altitude of 220 flights (22,000 feet or 6.7 km), the US unmanned Reaper MQ-9. The USA, which had previously taken off from the Sigonella base in Sicily, spun its wheels. They were the photos taken by this plane, along with others, that were released on May 26 by the leadership of the United States Force in Africa (AFRICOM).

“For too long, Russia has denied the full extent of its involvement in the ongoing conflict in Libya.” Well, now no one can deny it, “said US Army General Stephen Townsend in the AFRICOM statement.

The statement also included photos of Russian Mig-29, Su-35 fighter jets, Su-24, Su-34 attack aircraft, Tu-154 passengers, an empty base in Syria, and new “guests” taken from reconnaissance aircraft. Poseidon of the American P-8A. “The base of Al Jufra in Libya has arrived.

Russia's shameful failure in Libya: Lithuania can also feel the consequences of a long-running conflict

© USA AFRICOM

“Russia is clearly trying to overcome the situation in Libya,” he said. “As I have seen them do in Syria, they are expanding their military positions in Africa through government-backed mercenary groups like Wagner,” he added. The deployment of Russian fighter jets in Libya would violate the 2011 UN arms embargo.

Mercenaries with anti-aircraft defense

The importance of such a statement is particularly great. Not only because EE. USA Rarely does he publicize such sensitive intelligence and demonstrate the capabilities of his drones, it is possible to track Russian forces from a great distance, but in theory it is within the reach of Russian anti-aircraft defense and then publishes photos. First, one can notice the tone and wording: The United States has decided to react rigorously and publicly to Russia’s lies with sharp words and evidence.

Furthermore, Vagner has been named almost openly as a Russian-controlled company, which the Kremlin has denied for many years, despite the inclusion of its leader, Vladimir Putin’s personal chef, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on the sanctions and ample evidence that Vagner has been operating in Syria and other outbreaks for many years. points. It is not just a private military company made up of former Russian soldiers, in Syria it was equipped with tanks, artillery systems and other heavy weapons.

The first serious clash between Vagner and the United States spread across the world on February 7, 2018, when Vagner’s conspired mercenaries, along with Syrian regime forces, attempted to break through the United States-backed Kurdish forces in the oil fields of Deir Ar Zoro.

United States-backed air aid, from attack helicopters to fighter jets and bombers, has cracked down on attacking Russian and Syrian forces, killing dozens and hundreds of mercenaries, according to various sources, and later itself. Russia.

However, hundreds of Vagner mercenaries who appeared in Libya in the same year have helped Kh in recent years. Haftar forces to advance and boast 90 percent. Control of Libyan territory, despite all the attacks on the UN-recognized government in Tripoli, which is home to the country’s largest population, has failed.

This time, Vagner’s mercenaries were equipped not only with heavy weapons, but also with “Pantsir-S1” anti-aircraft defense systems. The latter also had Kh. Haftar forces that received these UAE air defense systems. The most notable difference between Vagner and Kh. The platform used by Haftaro is a platform: the Russians use Russian KAMAZ and the Arabs use MAN trucks.

On the other hand, the mere fact that the Russian mercenaries, whose presence in Libya and all ties to them were denied by Russia itself, despite the fact that Putin’s personal chef J. Prigozhin even attended a meeting with Kh. Haftaru, using an anti-aircraft defense system specifically made in Russia and supplied exclusively to the Russian army, is particularly articulate. Like the fact that the United States decided not to stay quiet, but openly catch the lying Kremlin.

Russia's shameful failure in Libya: Lithuania can also feel the consequences of a long-running conflict

© Twitter photo

Two rabbits were shot with one stone: The United States is making direct ties to Russian mercenaries with the Kremlin, proving once again that Vagner is a convenient and extremely dangerous tool in Russia’s foreign policy that uses the most advanced Russian weapons and can throw yourself away from the borders of Russia. At the same time, evidence of Russia’s direct involvement in the conflict in Libya is revealed: not only were Russian planes dumped at a remote base in Libya, but an attempt was also made to disguise part of the plane by repainting and concealing identification numbers and red star of the Russian Air Force.

Incidentally, one of the fighters clearly shows an unpainted red star, and on May 21, only after the first speculations from independent sources about the relocation of Russian aircraft in Libya appeared, it was considered that Mig-29 could have been formerly modernized fighters from Belarus and Russia. This would not be the first time.

Russia's shameful failure in Libya: Lithuania can also feel the consequences of a long-running conflict

© USA AFRICOM

According to Middle East defense specialist Akram Kharief, in the United Arab Emirates in 2015 Kh. At least three Mi-24PS attack helicopters, purchased from Belarus, were delivered to Haftar. And while supervising and piloting the Mig-29 itself is a much more complex logistics process that also requires Russia’s approval, the fact that Russia, which has close ties to Belarus, has thrown fighters into Libya through its base in Syria is eloquent.

Why the United States warned about the red lines

Even more eloquent, however, is another AFRICOM message, clearly cited by another American general, Jeff Harrigan, as a signal for US red lines. USA (That should not cross).

“If Russia takes control of the Libyan coast, the logical next step will be a permanent long-range A2 / AD capability (anti-access and area denial, A2 / AD). If that day dawns, it will create very real security challenges ” The political and military weight of this warning is particularly high, as it shows the attitude of the Americans towards Russia’s strategy in Libya, which they consider dangerous.

S-400

S-400

This oil-rich country has been in chaos and endless struggle since 2011, when longtime dictator Muammar Gaddafi was toppled after an uprising and NATO intervention.

Libya has been strategically important to the Kremlin since Gaddafi came to power in 1969 as an ally in North Africa. The country on the edge of southern Europe, which has not only been anti-western for decades, but has also supported terrorist attacks against the West, was a kind of Kremlin base of interest from which it was possible to threaten southern countries of Europe and American capabilities there.

The Kremlin, which has lost influence in Libya since 2011, has been trying to regain it in recent years, and the United States general’s stated goal of deploying A2 / AD capabilities on the Libyan coast could have far-reaching consequences.

The emergence of such capabilities could mean not only the deployment of long-range air defense (S-400), but also anti-aircraft systems (Bal, Bastion), as well as Iskander-M ballistic systems.

One consequence is the physical threat to A2 / AD capabilities in the NATO southern wing countries, France, Italy and its cooperating United States, whose sixth fleet is based in Italy, and Sicily also has a Sigonella air base strategically important from which the aforementioned MQ drones originate. -9, as well as the unmanned RQ-4 Global Hawk from NATO’s Earth Observation System (AGS) program.

Lithuania also participates in this program. RQ-4 Global Hawk, which originates from Sigonela, also conducts reconnaissance missions to the Baltic States as well as Ukraine.

“Global Hawk” unmanned aerial vehicle flights over Lithuania

© photo by flightradar24.com

On the other hand, the appearance of a Russian A2 / AD in Libya would not only threaten the Allies, but would also force a new prioritization of resources: if the United States or the countries of southern Europe were forced to dedicate more resources or a general approach to the capabilities of Russian A2 / AD in Libya, less attention could be paid. the same capacity near Lithuanian borders, for example in Kaliningrad.

For many years, senior NATO officials, military and experts have been openly talking about the A2 / AD capabilities issue here: Russia could carry out any military aggression against the Baltic states under the guise of A2 / AD capabilities. in the Kaliningrad region, complicating NATO’s movement in the region.

Conflict, withdrawal or new plan?

At least for now, Russia’s plans, if it only had one, to deploy A2 / AD capabilities in Libya seem vague. Russia has been unlucky here for some time.

She is supported by Kh. Haftar cannot boast of a successful career: in Gaddafi’s time, he was promoted to the rank of colonel and became chief of staff, but it was he who led the failed Libyan operation in Chad – in this conflict, Kh. Haftar not only suffered defeat but was also taken prisoner.

Russia's shameful failure in Libya: Lithuania can also feel the consequences of a long-running conflict

© Wikipedia Commons

When he was released, the ambitious officer not only extradited Gaddafi to a field of adversaries, but went to the United States, but also obtained citizenship of the country and established himself outside the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and received your protection.

Finally, Kh., Who returned to Libya at the beginning of the civil war in March 2011, Haftar was promoted to the rank of general and became the third most important officer of the then “Free Libyan Army”. After the first two enigmatic circumstances died in 2015, Kh. Haftar, an opponent of the Islamist government in Tripoli, declared himself the leader and “marshal” of the country at the head of the Libyan national army.

Initially, on the battlefield, he was accompanied by success and 90 percent. The territory of the country occupied by Kh. Haftar’s forces have resumed their attack on Tripoli since April last year. And the “Marshal” became a welcoming guest in the Kremlin, a former CIA-sponsored American citizen who was initially backed by France and Italy and was now coveted by everyone and already seemed ready for the inevitable Libyan leader job. Only a few “minor” problems remain: mobilizing military support from mercenaries from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Russia to achieve victory on the battlefield and occupy a UN-backed government-controlled Tripoli.

But former allies, especially the United States, drifted away from Kh. Haftaro Tensions increased in November last year when the US MQ-9 Reaper drone was shot down over Libya.

The Americans publicly named the alleged culprits: Russian mercenaries and Kh. Haftar, leaving him in a public retreat, that the drone was shot down, possibly by accident, by a Russian anti-aircraft defense system, but was destroyed by the Russians and Kh. Haftar supporters do not give up knowing what they have in their hands. Also, in disputes with the Russians, who did not want to engage in direct fighting, only to provide “technical assistance”, Kh. Haftar blackmailed him to establish accounts with Vagner’s mercenaries.

Finally, from Kh. Haftar once again returned to success on the battlefield: the Turkish military “advisers”, a group that was ousted from Syria and supported by the Turks, toughened in battle, joined the ranks of the opponents. Haftar’s planes were threatened by Turkish frigates equipped with anti-aircraft defense systems off the Libyan coast, and their forces began to be crashed from the air by Turkish drones that appeared in Libya.

The latter easily destroyed at least 5 Russia-praised anti-aircraft defense systems, Pantsir-S1, and hijacked at least one more. And while these were export versions of the Pantsir-S1 supplied by the UAE, they covered Kh with a new air campaign and planned a ground attack on Kh. Haftar hoped to enter Tripoli triumphant in the near future.

However, due to failures, the Russian mercenaries and Haftar, who had already lost support in the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, had to withdraw from the formerly occupied territories instead of attacking. On May 18, Libyan government forces took control of the strategically important Al-Watiya air base, south of Tripoli. This is where the almost intact Pantsir-S1 was hijacked. It is estimated that Turkish drones and, if necessary, Turkish F-16 fighter jets could be deployed at this base.

This may be necessary if it turns out that the Russian-deployed plane in Libya is not only a cover for the mercenaries hired by Vagner, but also direct support for Kh. Haftarui

At least some of the planes deployed in Libya are the Su-24 and Mig-29 fighter jets capable of providing air support to the air force, initially 8 aircraft were spoken of and AFRICOM later released more photos of 14 Russian aircraft on Wednesday in Libya.

But even all of them may not be enough to make a breakthrough, just to deter opponents and seek a ceasefire. And while Russia could theoretically strengthen its capabilities in Libya by launching even more planes and military or mercenaries, its most recent withdrawal and Kh. Haftar’s failures on the battlefield are just one of a number of drawbacks for the Kremlin.

At the same time, we need to support the forces of Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad to invest in Syrian infrastructure, and this is all happening at a difficult time for Russia, when the coronavirus is rampant in the country, affecting both the armed forces and to the country’s economy.

Russia's shameful failure in Libya: Lithuania can also feel the consequences of a long-running conflict

© Twitter photo

Vladimir Putin, who appears to be a particularly important player in the Middle East in recent years, will soon have to choose which country he will try to maintain and strengthen his influence in and how much it will cost Russia. The May 26 incident over the Mediterranean shows that the Kremlin is not yet publicly trying to withdraw and continues to demonstrate its power.

Ironically, it was where the United States closely followed the launch of Russian forces in Libya last week where the Russian Su-35 fighter was dangerously close to the US P-8 reconnaissance aircraft, Poseidon.

With such aggressive and unreasonably aggressive maneuvers, the Russian fighter has not posed for the first time a threat to a US aircraft, usually the tactics of the Russian fighters, which symbolically show dissatisfaction and demonstrate power. Therefore, the military confrontations between Russia and Turkey that have already taken place in Syria could be repeated in Libya, especially if there are intense negotiations between Ankara and Moscow, and each party does not shy away from using force to profit before reaching a final agreement.

Furthermore, neither Turkey nor Russia like to surrender and cannot tolerate public humiliation. Therefore, experts consider the agreement in Libya to be the most realistic result of the conflict, where Turkey and Russia could be satisfied with minimal concessions and mediation roles. On the other hand, a dramatic change on the battlefield could ruin all negotiations and even lead to unintended clashes off the coast of Europe.

It is strictly prohibited to use the information published by DELFI on other websites, in the media or elsewhere, or to distribute our material in any way without consent, and if consent has been obtained, DELFI must be cited as the source.



[ad_2]

Designed by Tricksfast Solutions
© Copyright 2024, All Rights Reserved