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Tadas Povilauskas, an economist at SEB Bank, said the decision to introduce quarantine belongs to healthcare professionals and that the economic arguments are important, but not decisive.
“If there is an epidemiological crisis in the country and we want to minimize contact with the people, the economy must adapt to it. But what matters is the speed with which the government responds with the necessary help for businesses and the population.
Because the tighter the restrictions and the more companies will not be able to work, the more economic activity will be reduced. This pre-holiday period is very important for the business sector, during which it makes money and looks forward to the more passive months of January and February. That is why there is so much pressure from traders to limit them as little as possible, ”said the economist.
According to him, many people are likely not to visit their loved ones during the holidays, which is another negative thing for merchants. People will buy fewer Christmas gifts because there will be no one to give them to anyone. As a result, the business will suffer a double blow.
“It just came to our notice then. The first few months of the year are more passive in terms of trade, so many traders may think hard about whether it’s worth letting people have downtime in the coming months. It is possible. they simply lay off some employees. However, unemployment was forecast to continue to grow and could peak in the first quarter of next year, “said T. Povilauskas.
Tightening quarantine does not help stop the spread of the virus
Swedbank chief economist Nerijus Mačiulis noted that in many countries the same or even softer measures were applied than in Lithuania, and the spread of the virus was halted there. The situation in Lithuania is different.
And, according to the economist, the most important thing is not looking at what effect the tightening of the quarantine will have on companies, but what effect it will have on society as a whole.
“It is obvious that bans and restrictions alone make it difficult to achieve the desired results. For example, in Lithuania, there is no public catering establishment, but the virus continues to spread. The residents themselves are not afraid and do not protect themselves. They go to both Christmas trees and supermarkets, and so the virus spreads.
And the stricter quarantine measures often have negative side effects not only in the economic sector but also, for example, in education. During distance learning, children do not acquire adequate education and social skills. And the parents of these children cannot work remotely, because they have to help the children learn, ”explained N. Mačiulis.
According to him, the proposal to send only children to kindergarten whose parents cannot work remotely shows the complete misunderstanding of the government about what the education of children is.
“Taking care of children at home is a permanent job and during it it is impossible to work remotely. As a result, a similar tightening of quarantine deprives people of the opportunity to work remotely from home. These government decisions are desperate and will have long-term negative consequences, ”predicted N. Mačiulis.
I don’t know what we’re targeting in quarantine
Sigismund Mauricas, chief economist at Luminor Bank, said we should be clear about the goals of the tightening of the quarantine, which we are targeting by introducing one or another virus management measure.
“Right now, the debate appears to be boiling over the number of coronavirus cases, and as a result, individual trees are scattered without seeing the entire forest. Quarantine measures are being introduced to reduce the number of cases for the system to However, it is necessary to know what the situation is in our health system, whether it is able to cope with the increase in patient flows or not.
We can also use quarantine to reduce the number of cases to zero, which has been done in Australia or New Zealand. But this would mean that Lithuania must reach out to other European Union (EU) countries. However, this is not possible. After all, a large number of Lithuanian companies cooperate with other countries during the quarantine. Furthermore, not all EU countries have such an objective ”, commented the economist.
He said the quarantine could be used to reduce the number of people infected until the vaccine is available.
“However, it seems that we will have to wait until spring for the population to start mass vaccination.” It would also mean that the quarantine should continue until spring, which would have negative consequences both for the psychological condition of the people and for the economy.
Also, I don’t see a correlation between the tightening of quarantine and a decrease in the number of infections. Many things depend on the conscience of the people. What matters is not what measures are introduced, but how they are complied with ”, Ž. Mauricas.
According to him, one should not see only black or white. If there is no quarantine, it is white, and if there is quarantine, everything is black.
“We should not think that now we have to choose the Lithuanian economy or people’s lives. After all, if there is a hole in the budget and there is a lack of money, and the debt increases, we will have to tighten my belts next year.
Therefore, the introduction of quarantine should be based on measures that are as detrimental as possible to economic growth but effective in controlling the virus.
For example, prohibiting stores from working on weekends could have the opposite effect, and then more people will go shopping during the week, ”said the economist.
According to him, too strict a quarantine can lead to high levels of youth unemployment.
“Most of the young people work in the service and restaurant sectors. It is almost impossible for them to find work at this time. As a result, emigration flows may increase, now it is difficult to go to some countries, but emigration may increase next year. We can also have a budget deficit. We wasted a lot of money before the elections and we no longer have a reserve. Therefore, the budget debt may increase “Ž. Mauricas.
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