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Like many other analysts, Galeotti noted a flood of posts asking what Joe Biden’s victory in the US presidential election meant for Russia. Of course, it is interesting to him that not only Western but also Russian commentators participate in various deliberations.
“Of course, the future of bilateral relations is important, but the tone of the Russian comments speaks volumes not only about how Washington will be treated, but also about Moscow’s attitude toward itself.
The American debate on Russia is often immature. For years, talking about the Kremlin has meant talking about Donald Trump and considering whether he is a Moscow agent or a victim of the fictional Russiagate scandal. But much is missing from the Russian deliberations on the United States “, believes M. Galeotti.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Donald Trump
Americans and Europeans attacked
A RUSI analyst quotes one of Russia’s foreign policy experts, Sergei Karaganov, who is considered heavy, who wrote a veritable ode to the government newspaper Rossiskaya Gazeta.
In that article, S. Karaganov affirms that Russia needs to abandon its defensive positions and “offer itself to Eurasia and all others as a leader in regard to normality, sovereignty and peace”. Moscow is said to have “historically blocked the way for those who start the wars that torment the world so much.”
The Russian expert calls on the “victorious nation” to establish itself in the world and show a place for “hegemony in politics, transnationalists, liberals who want to impose a semi-totalitarian ideology.”
According to Karaganov, Moscow has historically “blocked the way for those who start wars that plague the world.”
As M. Galeotti observes, the publication has almost traditionally suggested that Europe is supposedly becoming a degenerate country. Gayrop, but the main idea of S. Karaganov is to resist the dictates of the United States and its servants in Europe. It is a fight that Russia must lead, not unite.
The analyst finds it somewhat strange that at a time when many more independent Russian analysts are urging the Kremlin to be as cautious as possible, there is a tremendous, and perhaps desperate, desire to be on an equal footing with the United States and to reclaim another world pole. .
Arno Strumilos / 15min swim / Markas Galeotti
“Russia is not just a glorious past, it has strengths now and opportunities in the future,” Galotti writes. However, it is difficult to understand a comparison with a country (USA, – red) with an economy of 12 times and a share of GDP per capita of more than five times.
Even when you factor in Russia’s unofficial defense spending and perhaps even higher purchasing power, America’s defense budget is much larger. Even if we ignore the last few years, America’s soft power is greater. “
People don’t want expensive global missions
According to the expert, Russia should not even be compared to the United States. He recalls the outrage with which Moscow accepted a truly flawed declaration by former US President Barack Obama that Russia was a “regional power”, no longer a global one. After all, there is nothing wrong with having both global and regional interests.
AFP / Photo by Scanpix / Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama
But, according to Galeotti, the Soviet Union sank into its grave in an attempt to keep up with the American arms race, although, admittedly, the United States was close to bankruptcy, only they could afford it.
“Why does post-Soviet Russia need to participate in the new ideological race? Empire, hegemony, global leadership, call it what you want, but it is an absurdly expensive process and completely irrational in economic terms.
Russia cannot afford it and there is no strong evidence that the Russians, unlike the Kremlin and certain observers, are interested in such a fight, ”said the British analyst.
Galeotti: Empire, Hegemony, Global Leadership; call it what you want, but it is an absurdly expensive process and completely irrational in economic terms.
According to Galeotti, Moscow relied on mercenaries and hot-blooded adventurers to undertake military adventures in Donbass and Syria.
Yes, the Russians were pleased with the annexation of Crimea, a country they thought was always theirs, but such a comparison is inappropriate: Polls show that people are far from wanting a major global mission to build roads in Rostov or clinics in Kamchatka. .
Photo by Scanpix / RIA Novosti / Commemoration of the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea
71 percent. Russian polls say that Russia is a “great power.” But at the same time up to 47 percent. welcomes the US negatively, only 41%, which is hardly an indicator that allows the calm head to embark on global adventures.
Moscow is not that important to Washington
“Trying to be equal to the United States, especially at a time when China is growing rapidly as another geopolitical power and model, is horrible self-harm,” Galeotti said.
Such auctions supposedly prevent the central government from engaging in urgently needed internal reforms and only signal what the so-called paranoid silovikai. The security guards are used to dividing the people of the country into patriots and traitors, which does not allow normal discussions to develop.
“Most importantly, the Kremlin’s efforts are doomed,” the analyst said, adding that America’s status in the world is likely to decline.
Galeotti believes it remains to be seen whether the Biden administration will be able to rectify the situation. “short dilettantism ”. In any case, the flowers will not bloom for a single period: Washington’s ability to shape effective international policy is increasingly being questioned.
„Reuters“ / „Scanpix“ nuotr./Joe Bidenas
According to the expert, Russia’s desire to constantly challenge the myth-covered ideological rival is only a visible image in Washington’s mirror; he is also believed to be involved in the normative struggle with Moscow.
“Whites are defenders of freedom and democracy. Blacks are autocrats,” says Galeotti.
For Moscow, as if a lover pursued an old sympathy out of jealousy, everything is still connected with America. Even embracing China, the Kremlin is still looking over its shoulder, has Washington noticed?
“The big difference, however, is that Moscow cares much less about Washington than about Moscow. Growing China, transatlantic relations, rebuilding the State Department – these priorities are more important to the Biden administration.
But for Moscow, as if a lover jealously pursued old sympathies, everything still has to do with America. Even as it embraces China, the Kremlin is still looking over its shoulder, has Washington noticed? ”, Adds the analyst.
In his opinion, if Russia were more satisfied and self-confident, the country’s foreign policy could be more pragmatic and moderate. Furthermore, billions would not be wasted on supposedly prestigious projects and risky adventures.
“Finally, the national mental health would also improve. It is time to move on,” suggests Galeotti.
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