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P. Cohen is a partner in the International Experiences Tourism Services Sales Platform and long-term vice president of the PHG Consulting Group. PHG Consulting offers tourism product development and travel awareness services in the United States. This week he participated in a webinar on the future of tourism organized by the National Association of Tourism Companies of Lithuania.
“Now the situation in the United States is not beautiful,” he admitted. Still, Cohen, who has worked in tourism for 30 years, believes the industry will rebound very quickly after the vaccine. This is what you are experiencing, both after 9/11 and during the SARS epidemic, and after the natural disasters, there was talk that it would be the end of tourism. But very soon people returned to travel and the tourism business recovered.
Paul Cohen
The number of tourists in Europe will increase next year, but not all countries will be able to reach them as much as they want. What can be done to make Lithuania an attractive address for both Americans and tourists from other countries?
Now is not the time to promote Lithuania as a leadership
“Americans love to travel and now it was like traveling to jail. When they leave, they will want to travel and see as much as possible, “Cohen said. Those places, hotels, airlines that will learn to present themselves smarter will attract more tourists. Only then is it important to choose the right strategy.
“It just came to our notice then. This is not the time to start marketing campaigns in Lithuania (or anywhere else in Europe). People still don’t think about where to go; now they are still thinking about how to stay healthy and save families. Now is the time to prepare. Now is not the time to rush, “he advised.
Cohen predicted that next year would be a recharge for tourism around the world. This is also a good opportunity for Lithuania and other Baltic countries, which took up a very small portion of US travel to Europe before the pandemic.
Photo by Sigismund Gedvila / 15min / Turistas
But most Americans will not remember what happened in the world before 2020. They will not understand what happened in the Baltics, Africa or the Middle East. A new sheet will be translated. “The hottest trends, which used to get more attention, will have to work harder to get back to the same level,” predicted P. Cohen.
Next year there will be a recharge in tourism around the world. This is also a good opportunity for Lithuania, which took up a very small share of US travel to Europe before the pandemic.
As an example, he cited Costa Rica, which was visited by hundreds of thousands of Americans. It will be a serious challenge for Costa Rica to recover them, because “the Americans will not remember what happened in Costa Rica, what in Nicaragua, what in Nigeria or Estonia.” “It just came to our attention then. Now is the time to start over,” urged the expert.
How will the trip change?
What should Lithuania prepare for if it wants to compete for American tourists? Cohen provided some ideas on how travel will change after the pandemic:
- The role of the travel agent will be increased. In recent years, more and more people have traveled independently, booking hotels through popular sites like Booking or Expedia. COVID-19 will likely change that. A significant number of people faced challenges with refunds when hotels were not booked directly, but through intermediaries. According to Cohen, travelers are now afraid to book online because they want to make sure they get their money back in the event of cancellation.
- Many family trips. Families spent a lot of time during the COVID-19 pandemic and surveys show they will continue to want to be together. “If I was spending that much time with my family, I might want to run away from them myself,” Cohen joked. “But it’s surprising that Americans want to travel more with their families.” He stressed the importance of creating as many products as possible for those travelers.
Photo from 123rf.com/Dubai, United Arab Emirates
- Educational trips will be in demand. Cohen predicted that Americans traveling with children will seek such trips. “Lithuania and the Baltic countries have many excellent places and activities for educational, heritage and historical trips. So create products for families for travel, and at the same time for education ”, the expert from the United States shared the advice.
- Family trips will get longer. Another major change will be that family trips will not necessarily be planned only during school holidays. The pandemic has shown that distance learning is possible, so traveling will take longer. Although then families will want more flexible travel programs, for example, in the first half of the day they will want to study with the children and get to know the country in the afternoons and evenings.
- Business trips won’t be back anytime soon – According to the predictions of P. Cohen, this can only happen in 2024-2025. Americans are learning to work remotely, holding meetings through Zoom. So even business trips within the US will pay off at best in a couple of years, and international ones will take even longer. Therefore, a key focus for the tourism sector should be leisure travel, with an emphasis on education and family entertainment.
- There will no longer be large groups of buses with rigorous schedules.. People will travel in smaller groups and want more flexibility in scheduling.
- Travel for unique events. Cohen described this as a good opportunity for the tourism business to attract more foreigners to the country. Travelers will no longer be drawn to giant concerts; instead, tourists may be attracted to offering unique experiences through, for example, historical commemorations, food, cultural events, etc. “I think Americans will miss it because they haven’t experienced it much lately,” Cohen said.
Two positive developments even during the crisis
Even with the tourism business suffering one of the biggest crises in history, the expert still saw two things that can be called positive changes.
Many parts of the world have suffered from excessive tourism, so global congestion should help address this problem. “Other places will have a chance to compete,” Cohen said.
He also hoped the pandemic would change the government’s approach to tourism. According to him, in almost all countries the industry did not receive much respect from the government, and now governments have seen the important role of tourism: how much it benefits the economy, how much it creates jobs.
“Now is the time for global transshipment,” concluded Cohen. “Now is the time to present ourselves in a new way, as Lithuania would like to see publicized.” According to him, the essential work at this time should be the cooperation of all stakeholders (hotels, tour operators, airlines, etc.). Only by shrugging our shoulders in the coming months can we prepare well for the upcoming changes in tourism.
If a COVID-19 vaccine is launched successfully, Cohen speculates that as early as next spring, Americans will begin looking for a place to vacation during the warm season of 2021.
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