The spread of Covid-19 in Lithuania is not necessarily a consequence of irresponsibility: scientists have no doubt that the virus itself has changed significantly.

For their part, Lithuanian epidemiologists and doctors continue to fight thousands of new cases of coronavirus infection. Although the country is already in its third week of quarantine, the situation remains difficult. Why there is no way to control the second wave of Covid-19 and how the virus itself has been discussed on the “Delfi Tema” program.

The intense spread of the virus may also have been caused by the mutation.

As Prof. Prof. from Vilnius University (VU) Life Sciences Center said in the program. Aurelija Žvirblienė, the change of the virus or, in other words, its evolution is a natural process. The researcher explained that the more prevalent the virus is in society, the more changes can occur.

“Imagine that almost 60 million people in the world are now infected. People and each one of them has billions of copies of the virus. In a word, that virus has multiplied a lot and mistakes when copying its genome happen by accident. If those bugs are favorable for the virus, they just take hold and those virus variants begin to dominate, ”explained A. Žvirblienė.

The professor noted that while the word “mutation” sometimes scares people, it simply means that changes are taking place in the viral genome.

“Some changes do not change the properties of the virus much, while others, for example, change the structure of those proteins that are encoded in the genome. One of those mutations that is now present in all variants that are only scattered around the world is the structure of the viral protein S.

Protein S is responsible for the entry of the virus into the cell. As a result, the virus is more prevalent because it is simply more adapted to infect human cells. This is a clear change, which has already been tested by experts in experiments, and probably explains why the virus has spread so intensely now, ”said the professor.

The third week should show the effect of the quarantine.

The numbers that do not decrease also show that the virus is spreading strongly in Lithuania. Although just over a thousand new cases of coronavirus infection were recorded on Monday and Tuesday, giving epidemiologists hope, that number rose again to more than 2,000 on Wednesday.

However, according to Daiva Razmuvienė, an epidemiologist at the National Center for Public Health (NVSC), this situation should not be very surprising, as the first two weeks of quarantine are still the consequences of life prior to quarantine.

“Since the quarantine was announced on November 7, we have already experienced two weeks of quarantine. The final second week was undoubtedly with impressive morbidity rates well above 2000. But that is normal, because those two weeks of quarantine are, as always, the results we experienced, the way we behaved, the way we were mobile, dynamic until November 7. ” – said the doctor.

D. Razmuvienė stressed that it is not necessary to expect the number of quarantine assistance cases to drop to zero, but according to her, the third week should show “the actual results of the quarantine.”

A. Žvirblienė also mentioned to the epidemiologist: “I will remind you that there were two scenarios. One is optimistic, the other pessimistic. This situation is really approaching that pessimistic scenario, but it has not yet been reached. Let me remind you that there was another scenario: what would happen if the quarantine was not introduced. I mean, in that case, those numbers would be much higher than what we are seeing now. In fact, we cannot say that the quarantine does not work. It just hasn’t worked yet. “

In addition, the professor pointed out that the first quarantine was introduced in a much better epidemiological situation than this time.

“The quarantine has now been introduced from a much worse situation, from a much larger number of infected people, in fact, when the situation was already, in fact, difficult to handle. However, such miraculously quick results cannot be expected, but the trend remains positive, as do the experts in our group. People who still meet those requirements are to be thanked for that as well. I don’t think it’s that bad, “said A. Žvirblienė.

Asked if this meant that the quarantine was simply delayed, the interviewee agreed: “It can be said that the measures came a little late. The more cases, the more difficult it is to return to that better state, all analysts acknowledge. Of course, any late day, which increases the number of cases and allows the virus to spread, exacerbates the situation. “

There are hundreds of chimneys in families, the age of the sick is worrying

Although, according to specialists, it is still difficult to draw firm conclusions about the impact of the quarantine, D. Razmuvienė saw certain trends. For example, that there were no more chimneys in the workplace, but that they were spread over the families.

“What can we say today, however, that the outbreaks are already moving from places of entertainment, as we used to register in September-October, (…) to families, to family fireplaces. Around 120-130 outbreaks related to diseases and infections in families are registered per day alone.

Meanwhile, about 700 chimneys have already been accounted for in Lithuania, where about 22-25 percent. during these two weeks it consists of cases in families. Some collectives, institutions, organizations have made the decision to work remotely and, therefore, currently only a few cases have been registered in those places and the outbreaks are no longer registered there ”, pointed out D. Razmuvienė.

Asked if these are isolated cases in which a relative brings the virus from the workplace, supermarket, etc., or if there is still talk of social gatherings, the doctor replied:

“Of course, these are not isolated cases (…). Again, family members have jobs, for example, the same doctors have jobs and homes. Sometimes people, not secretly, organize parties. I also had to read in the media that premises were rented to organize and celebrate personal or work events. Such gatherings, as we can see, allow the virus to spread. “

The epidemiologist regretted that there are still cases where people with mild Covid-19 and outpatients do not adhere to self-isolation and interact with healthy individuals.

In addition, the epidemiologist noticed changes during the first two weeks in the age groups of the patients: the virus joined the ranks of the youngest people.

“It is worrying that the age of the patients has become very young. If one in five people between the ages of 50 and 59 is sick during these first two weeks of quarantine, then between the ages of 30 and 39. it reaches around the 16-18 percent “, – D. Razmuvienė shared the data.

There is a risk to the efficacy of the vaccine.

While the whole world, like Lithuania, is battling the second wave of coronavirus, pharmaceutical companies are trying hard to create a vaccine that will stop the virus that has disrupted normal life. However, as early as November, there were alarming reports in the media that Denmark intends to euthanize millions of tissues as a result of the mutated virus.

The mutation “could put at risk that future vaccines (against coronavirus) will not work as they should,” Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told a news conference, adding: “It is necessary to sacrifice all tissues.”

As Professor A. Žvirblienė explained, this is also related to the aforementioned changes in the S protein of the virus.

“It is also a mutation that changes the structure of the virus’ S protein, and experts fear that the mutation could make it difficult for the virus to recognize the antibodies that form and inactivate the virus,” explained the professor.

A. Žvirblienė agreed that the current situation is very dynamic and it is very important to analyze the virus genome, which is why scientists around the world do it. Still, reassuring professor, you don’t think there can be catastrophic scenarios in which the virus becomes even more dangerous than it is now.

“The current data does not suggest that it is more virulent. For example, to increase mortality from it. The situation is simply being monitored,” said A. Žvirblienė.

When asked whether it could not happen that by the time a safe coronavirus vaccine was developed, a completely different strain of the virus would already prevail in society, the interviewee did not rule out this risk. However, he stressed that it was difficult for vaccines to be completely ineffective and explained why:

“It just came to our knowledge then. But what else is characteristic of this virus? Although I say there are many changes in those mutations, but it is not very intensely mutant and those changes are not as big as, for example, in the structure flu virus, when the flu virus is like a new virus each season. This virus changes much less. Yes, those mutations that occur in the protein S structure can alter the effectiveness of vaccines because vaccines are develop using this protein, they contain a protein or an RNA or DNA sequence that encodes it.

(…) That situation needs to be monitored, but it will not be the case that these changes make the vaccines completely ineffective. The virus’s protein S is 1,000 amino acids long, slightly longer. Changes, mutations replace one or two amino acids out of every thousand. Consequently, that immune response that is generally against that viral antigen continues to be effective. The situation is not such that the virus becomes completely insurmountable with vaccines. “

See the full conversation on Delfi Tema.