We need to prepare for the new wave of the virus in the fall now: modern border control tools already exist

– It is also proposed to extend the quarantine in the summer, most likely it will be done: the minister who transmitted the message has repeatedly said that it is more necessary for the legal regime to quarantine, isolate what is needed, etc. Professor, what should summer be like in Lithuania in your opinion?

– I think first of all we would like to have a good, sunny summer so that we can enjoy it. Unfortunately, I have said before that we will never live as we did before COVID-19. Perhaps the word “never” is not very appropriate, but one thing is clear: at least in the near future we will be forced to live differently, as we learned during that royal quarantine. If we go back, that quarantine, the strict restriction of movement was necessary for all of us to learn to live in new conditions, with a new virus that has not yet disappeared and will not disappear from our lives. To regroup the health system, other institutions, companies, services, all citizens.

How will we live? It would be good not to forget that we do not know when and where we can meet a person, perhaps even a loved one, who can carry the virus that causes severe COVID-19, and at least try to minimize, reduce the possibility of infection. And I think we all remember the rules.

– Let’s talk about the latest figures. For a long time, up to 10 new cases of the virus were recorded per day, now 12 new cases. Of course, this has to do with certain fireplaces, you won’t even call them fireplaces. Basically that first wave stops, that’s a fact, right? Now we can talk about the second possible wave in the fall, right?

– Depends on what we call the first wave. I imagine that the first wave was the people who came to Lithuania with the virus, and the secondary infections continued from the people who came here, that true first wave. And then the walls closed and the wave did not rise. If, as soon as the borders were closed, people would have realized even more quickly how to do a checkup, another problem that was not possible at first, perhaps then the mass of people who came and who, without their knowledge, continued to spread the virus would have been smaller. . But, in any case, it would have been and is.

Similarly, more and more new people can come to us. We don’t want to speculate, speak in digital terms, or say the day and time we will have an increase in new cases again. It is very important that as soon as new cases of the disease appear, that they are diagnosed as soon as possible, that their contacts are examined as soon as possible, that people understand and are not afraid of being diagnosed, and that they are aware and adhere to self-isolation. I teach.

– 5.6 cases: This is the average amount recorded in Lithuania in two weeks. There are already European statistics that Lithuania is one of the best in this issue. This probably means that, in principle, Lithuania is one of the best in crisis management, right?

– Definitely. I think we all understand perfectly and we have all contributed to that. Perhaps so far some do not believe that there could have been or is a problem at all because we managed to avoid Italy or a similar scenario. The next problem is probably always looking at what we could have done even better. But, more importantly, we must always look to the future regarding mistakes that we should not make in the future.

– It is already possible to travel through the Baltic countries, it is about opening the borders between other countries in mid-June, perhaps the borders will be opened within the European Union in general. In your opinion, are there any number of cases in which Lithuania should not open its borders with these countries until they have reached a certain number?

– Two cases. One thing, as you say, could be [nuostatos] for a certain number Another way is to take advantage of modern technological possibilities, etc. For example, if we talk about Belarus, economic and human relations with it are still very important, and so on. So why not present a certain passport or COVID-19 certificate? If you want to come check and show that your polymerase chain reaction test is negative within a day or several days.

Another problem is that I think there may come a time when we can think about the technical feasibility of having a team at the border that can carry out a rapid polymerase chain reaction test in 30 minutes, on the spot. Yes, it would cost, but maybe a person could pay or something.

– Especially with third countries when we are not talking about EU members, right? After all, Lithuania has borders with Russia and Belarus, so that would be useful for those borders, right?

– Yes, especially for those walls. I can even say specifically: to the best of my knowledge, perhaps even in a couple of months it would be possible to have such a team in Lithuania. But, as President Trump says, “America comes first.” So first of all, it is the United States that wants to be equipped with the latest technology. There are other modern methods possible, just don’t be afraid to apply and implement them in Lithuania. antibody tests where the situation is already reminiscent of a joke.

– Going back to what you said about the rapid tests that could be carried out at the border, would these so-called express tests not only show the presence of antibodies?

– No. Ideally, I would apply both that and that test. I have now spoken of tests to show whether viral RNA can be isolated from the human body at that time. Darkart, I emphasize, such tests already exist, but so far they are only available from a company in the United States.

– This could be the case at airports where inspections already exist. I am no longer talking about whether this should be on land roads, where sooner or later the free movement of people within the EU will return. But at least with third countries, airports or shipping lanes where people are already being screened and are wasting time, that could be useful, right?

– yeah I know that a couple of beginners in Lithuania are already discussing the idea of ​​Estonia, how to technically produce that passport or certificate, so if you don’t do research at home, you can do it at the border. If we have the vaccines, which we expect, there could also be a mark on whether or not you have been vaccinated. Let’s go back to where we started anyway. COVID-19 has not gone anywhere, we must learn to live with it, to open up, but at the same time to minimize the possibility of infection for our citizens.

– We have already talked about the Swedish example, but now we can see the figures in the longer term. Maybe I’m wrong, you correct it, but they look bad.

– On the one hand, they look poor.

– I mean, mortality is one of the highest, morbidity is one of the highest. At first, it was said that they seemed to expect many of them to become infected, get sick, but die a little, because the health system is very good, people are disciplined, civic, authorities said: they listen, etc.

– The Swedes have made it clear that, on the one hand, herd immunity is not forming as quickly and perhaps the Swedes are already abandoning these ideas, and we will all abandon them. Another question raises questions again about the potential impact of vaccines if they are invented. In any case, moving in that direction, as we know, there are already many clinical trials. It may only be necessary to get vaccinated every season, but here is another question. So this did not work.

On the other hand, if we look in detail at what happened in Sweden, it is mainly immigrants who are sick, those people who have not listened to the recommendations of Swedish doctors. We talk more about prohibitions, sanctions, etc., but still people, as we can see, are really aware.

– Well, there the public is more critical with information, listening to specialists …

– There are enough recommendations that they recommend, he said, and everything. At this point, perhaps it is a delicate subject, a kind of stigmatization, but it is still clear that those people who were less disciplined, who lived in other, more concise social conditions, did not follow the recommendations, basically became ill.

– Kindergartens were opened in Lithuania, primary schools also started to work, of course only a small part of them are open, but kindergartens are open. Doesn’t that seem to pose new risks? How do you qualify?

– We cannot say that this does not pose any new risk. Another problem is that it is important for parents to be aware first, to understand if the child is not really well, something is not right: the temperature has increased, more or less. – Do not take to the nursery anyway. Because the symptoms of COVID-19 in children can be completely different from those of adults. It can often start with a digestive system disorder.

– Children often become asymptomatic, which means they have a virus, that virus does not multiply to a great extent: they can get sick but not even infect others because they just don’t have a lot of the virus, right?

– It is very logical that he said everything, only to add that, unfortunately, there are still deaths among children and that they can become seriously ill, so that we do not get lost. But I read one of the most recent studies, where 100 sick people and their contacts were extensively studied. However, it turns out that 6 days after the start of a sick person who develops symptoms, they did not infect another person. In this case, it is similar to what he said that children secrete fewer viruses.

– The virus does not multiply in your body, for some reason it is not the appropriate medium, and do not infect others?

– yeah But as for the second wave, it can be guaranteed that a situation may arise where another person and a small amount of the virus can trigger a strong clinical course, then it will start to remove more viruses, become more contagious and can continue to infect more people. Let’s go back to the fact that the most dangerous are people who have close contact. And the longer and closer that contact is, the more dangerous.

– In the beginning, on January 27, approximately 8 weeks before the start of the quarantine, we discussed the possibility that the virus can be suppressed when the weather warms up. But it doesn’t seem to be directly related to the weather, does it? And this is demonstrated by the experience of other countries, for example, Brazil, where it is very hot.

– And yes and no. On the one hand, yes, it extends where it is hot. But let’s go back to Lithuania, if we are more outdoors, where there will be wind and ultraviolet rays, the virus still does not like it, it is spoiled. And following the Brazilian example, even on the same beach, if you are close to other people, the virus, certainly enough, can quickly enter your body and cannot be carried by the wind or destroyed by ultraviolet light. As a result, special attention is paid to the beaches, where people are advised not to meet if they do not live together.

– When can you expect that second wave? Should we be guided to make it like the flu in mid-November and the coming flu, or is it somehow different?

– I don’t want to belong to this group of people who make very specific predictions and then make fun of them. One thing is clear from what we know about coronaviruses, seasonality, etc., the general patterns suggest that the risk will increase in the fall.

– In other words, the weather is freezing, people are going to the facilities again, the distances are decreasing, is that related to that?

– Absolutely correct. Whatever the quarantine did a good job, we have far fewer cases of influenza. Precisely because people kept their distance, they did not communicate as much, on the other hand, they wore medical masks.

Medical masks are now easy to buy. No matter how beautiful you look with cloth masks, medical masks still offer much more protection than cotton, no matter how beautiful they are.

– Of course, you are following the scientific literature. Do you already see clear indications that there may be large-scale vaccines on the world market in the fall, October and November?

– In short – no. We must understand that clinical trials of drugs and vaccines, etc. But even if that works, let’s imagine how long it will take to prove that it’s safe, not to mention how long it will take to produce. And if it is a technology where few have it, not a technology where many factories have …

– Well, now both Japanese and Americans seem to be in the final stages of drug production.

– Yes, but looking at what technology. Because not all vaccines can be produced quickly by any plant that already produces vaccines anyway. So, considering this fact, let’s imagine how long it would take for the vaccine to reach everyone in Lithuania.

– Therefore, shields and masks should not be far away, they will be necessary in the fall, right?

– I would say that in any case, even if there are no requirements, I will put on a mask, I will go to the store more or less. While I fully understand that in a store, passing on to someone else, the probability of getting infected is more theoretical. But if I and the other person wear masks, the odds are almost zero.