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Presidential adviser Simonas Krėpšta said this week it will be very important to assess the actual figures.
“We can say that the quarantine is working, the growth rate has slowed significantly. But we see that the daily numbers are not decreasing yet. This week will be very important, which will show whether we will be able to break the pandemic curve down. At the end of the week, we will see a real situation, because three weeks have passed since the announcement of the quarantine, ”said S. Krėpšta.
The President’s Counselor welcomed the government’s speeches on the possibility of prolonging the quarantine.
“We just realized that the quarantine had to continue. We see that the two-week quarantine is taking effect, without which the situation would be much worse. We also see that three weeks will be too short a time to reduce the level of daily infections to such a proportion that they are easy to track and reduce the very heavy burden of medical institutions, ”explained adviser to President G. Nausėda.
The situation is still difficult
Professor Mindaugas Stankūnas stated that the coronavirus situation in Lithuania remains difficult. According to him, although there were signs of optimism, the situation is deteriorating again.
“The situation of the coroanvirus in Lithuania is still complicated, our previous forecasts proved to be quite accurate. But it is unfortunate that we are in a more pessimistic than optimistic scenario, we previously predicted that the peak will be reached from 20 to 27 November, so the situation should start to improve. In fact, in the middle of last week, we saw signs of low optimism. If we look at the effective ratio R, it was on November 16 that it had dropped to 1,009. It got so close to our desired limit that there would be less than one . (…) This was the lowest value of this indicator since September 8. But on November 17 it started to grow, today it reaches 1,163, which is quite a lot ”, explained the professor.
At the same time, the researcher noted that the volume of hospital services also increased during this period. Recent data suggests that 1,443 patients are currently being treated at the hospital.
Oxygen masks are needed for 747 patients. That is 53 percent. all patients hospitalized for coronavirus.
“If we compare it with the data from the beginning of November, then oxygen masks were needed in 40-45 percent. Patients. And if we go back a little more, that is, to the spring period, then only one in four patients they needed oxygen masks. (…) This would mean that we are hospitalizing increasingly complex patients, and patients with a lighter clinic are being treated at home, ”said M. Stankūnas.
The professor said the number of cases is projected to increase through December 11.
“Recent epidemiological data have forced us to review our forecasts. It should be said here that there is not such great optimism. We do not rule out the possibility that in the near future we will see a decrease in the number of new reported cases, but in terms of The morbidity curve should not change direction until early December. We believe that the growth in cases should continue until December 11, “said M. Stankūnas.
The scientist also shared scenarios for the great celebrations of the year.
“Today we have made forecasts for the president, in which we try to calculate how the situation could be at Christmas and New Years. We believe that at Christmas, if the quarantine works, people will follow the recommendations, we can have much fewer cases, we predict that then there could be about 20 thousand. active cases, ”Professor M. Stankūnas said at the press conference.
According to scientists, more than 1,500 of our compatriots will celebrate the holidays in hospital wards.
Stankoon: Pandemics are insurmountable, neither scientists nor experts
The researcher said he had no doubt that all members of the Council would be happy if these scenarios did not materialize and those infection numbers were reduced rapidly.
“And I mean that you are the ones who can override our forecasts. And I ask you to prove that this team of experts is wrong. It is up to you how that curve continues to move. The Dalai Lama once said:” If you think you are small for change something, try to fall asleep in a room where a mosquito flies. “And you are much bigger than a mosquito and you can do incomparably more.
An internet commenter said that we now have January 13 every day. I don’t know if we can compare those events to this situation, but we can really focus on how then. Now, by observing the events of those days, we draw courage, confidence and pride. Let this pandemic challenge be the source of all these things for our children, ”said M. Stankūnas.
The researcher appealed to the public to make an effort.
“I understand that we have asked you a lot and you have already done a lot, but we have to ask again. That said, I feel like I have borrowed a lot of money from you and have come to ask you for a little more. But we really need that “little bit” so that the current situation begins to change for the better, so that we can see more light around us.
Looking at the epidemiological situation, it seems that the ball is jumping in the goal and it seems so little necessary to land in the basket. And if during a basketball game we can only watch with clenched fists, then you can do a lot here. And you don’t need to become an epidemiologist, infectious disease doctor or health minister, ”said M. Stankūnas.
According to him, anyone can do that.
“You can do that ‘little bit’ if you ask your dad, mom or another ‘hesitant’ close person to put on a mask correctly, and not because Veryga, Stankūnas or anyone else demands it. And because you want to see it healthy and enjoy it for long time.
You can go and donate blood. It is always necessary and thus you will help the person who is currently ill. Thanks to those who do.
After a hard day, you can remotely gather your remaining strength and offer a half-hour consultation to fifth graders to explain the basic rules of stress again. I know that many teachers do that. On behalf of all parents, I thank you for that.
You won’t have much trouble if you “take advantage” of a newly opened online store on your Facebook profile, perhaps by a stranger. And even if you buy him a cloth for a few euros, do not hesitate, but at that moment he will feel happy.
Pandemics are not overcome by politicians or experts … ordinary people overcome them. So I invite you too, if you are not doing anything yet, start doing it. If you are already doing this, thank you and please try to do more. If you are already doing a lot, it is the greatest thanks and tries to inspire others with your example, ”said M. Stankūnas.
Advocates for the continuation of the quarantine
According to M. Stankūnas, the quarantine must continue.
“I think we all have to accept the idea that the quarantine will be extended. (…) I think they are really true for the most part, they should continue. But what needs to change, even in this expert council (…) convened by the president, we will definitely try to refine the proposals, we will be able to give our opinion on what should be done, what should be changed, ”said M. Stankūnas.
The professor was told that nonessential stores could be considered to close.
“It may be worth considering, the movement of people to supermarkets has decreased. (…) Not as much as in spring, but in decline. But what surprises us is the increase in people visiting supermarkets,” he said.
Instead of blaming, praise people for what they do.
The psychologist who participates in the working group, dr. According to Paulius Skruibis, it would encourage people to focus more if “we clearly state the goals we are striving for and how we can all see if we are close to that goal.”
“We strongly suggest specifying what kind of behavior we expect from people, what should and shouldn’t be done,” said P. Skruibis.
At the same time, the psychologist emphasized that reproaches do not provoke a positive reaction, but more resentment. According to him, people in today’s situation follow the rules more than they don’t.
“Perhaps we will emphasize them and appreciate that people adhere to it,” said P. Skruibis.
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