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“As of November 7, publishing the quarantine is one of the current questions about when we will see its effects. The impacts can be measured in different ways, but the most understandable statistics are the changes in the dynamics of new cases. Yes there is quarantine, growth must begin to slow down and turn into a decline.
There is no point looking at the dynamics of the day for weekend effects. Therefore, it is quite reasonable to observe the weekly growth, that is, to compare the number of cases of 7 days with the number of cases of the previous 7 days. So today we would compare the number of cases on November 14. to liquorice on the 20th, with the number of cases since November 7. until November 13. These statistics can be calculated every day ”, writes Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius on his Facebook account.
According to him, looking at the statistics up to Friday, the outlook was pretty good. Growth on November 18 and 19 had fallen below zero. But on November 20 it rose again to 6%.
“What happened? And what happened was that from November 5 to 7, the NVSC added the number of cases over several days and thus artificially increased them. This is evident by looking at the dynamics of the new positive tests. There were 1,383 new ones. positive tests in the fourth quarter of November, and only 995 new cases were recorded.Over the next three days, the NVSC pulled 816 more cases out of its illusionist hat than new positive tests were recorded.
Those days artificially spiked last week’s numbers and thus a drop was observed even though it wasn’t actually there. When those days started not to put in the 7 day window, everything went back to normal.
Calculate weekly growth from new positive tests to decline. The same downward trend in growth is observed, but growth slows to 7% and begins to recover on the last day.
“What is NVSC doing?”
Once again we have that the dynamics of the new cases shows more labor failures of the NVSC than the real situation of the epidemic. And the question arises justifiably what NVSC is really doing? “Asks the expert.
And he adds that absolutely all the data that has been made public so far could have been collected without the NVSC.
Photo by Sigismund Gedvila / 15min / National Center for Public Health
“The test data travels to eHealth along with the test subject’s personal code from which they can determine age, sex and place of residence. Determining whether it is a new case is an elementary self-check. Doumens, whether the patient has recovered, can be reassembled from electronic health or can be determined automatically at the end of isolation or a new negative test.
The NVSC actually provides only one number: new cases, which actually means that one of the NVSC staff members or volunteers once added a mark to the new positive test that there is a new case. With such data, he will not control the epidemic, ”writes Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius.
A member of the health council says he does not understand who needs quarantine in general, which does not work.
“Until I was a member of the think tank, I naively thought that SAM and NVSC have more data than they publish. After two weeks in the expert group, clarifying the situation as much as possible further reinforces the impression that either there is no more data or it is useless. I have been contacted by a couple of Excellencies who seem to have information but so little that it is difficult to get an additional picture of the epidemic.
Now we have a Lithuanian phenomenon, the quarantine, which does not stop the epidemic, but still damages the economy.
Therefore, it is not surprising that throughout the epidemic we heard nothing but elementary case studies from SAM and NVSC. When SAM and NVSC say that the effects of quarantine will only become apparent in a few weeks, they are based on considerations similar to what I have established here. Without normal data collection, where new cases are coming from, and without an analytical platform to process the available information (sparse Excel files don’t count), it is simply impossible to get deeper insights.
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Taking the maritime analogy of the Acting Prime Minister, SAM and NVSC navigate the ship through the epidemic sea while sitting on the lower deck and resting their ears on the bottom of the ship. In doing so, I assume that at best we will reduce growth to zero, but we will not suffer a decline. So an open question, who needs a quarantine that doesn’t work? Quarantine is a measure that stops an epidemic but damages the economy. Now we have a Lithuanian phenomenon, the quarantine, which does not stop the epidemic, but still damages the economy.
I very much hope I am wrong and we will see a drop in cases next week. Unfortunately, considering that the proportion of positive investigations continues to grow with success, which means that in reality the situation is out of control and there are many more cases than can be registered, it is difficult to remain optimistic, ”writes Vaidotas, member of the Council of Health, mathematician. Zemlys-Balevičius.
Data and statistics: https://mpiktas.github.io/covid19lt/
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