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Armenia’s long flirtation with Russia and the entry of its troops into the country’s territory did not help either. Not only does the Russian military have its own military base in the country, but both states are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Experts note that the main winner is Turkey, which has proven its power in the region. Russia is projected to strengthen its influence in Armenia.
“Loyal ally”
The trump card of Armenia is Russia, in June this year it is written in the propaganda “Sputnik”. “Armenia has a Russian military base, the republic belongs to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), in other words, it is a Russian military ally,” Sputnik said.
An additional agreement signed in 2017 that provides for the creation of a joint military contingent did not help either. Konstantin Zatulin, then chairman of the CIS Committee of the Russian Duma, said that the ratification of the document “would become a means to calm the region.”
“We can say with absolute certainty that Russia today has only one loyal ally in the Caucasus, Armenia. The reasons for this may differ, both in terms of Christian proximity and the fact that Armenia is surrounded on all sides, far from its more neighbors. The agreement becomes an instrument of tranquility, it is a defense union, “said K. Zatulin at the time.
Armenian political scientist: this is a defeat for Russia
The signing of a tripartite ceasefire agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh is a defeat for Russia and a betrayal of Armenia. Aik Chalatian, an Armenian political commentator, expressed this view in Echo Moskvy.
“The agreement is a betrayal of Armenia. The majority of the public is convinced that the agreement signed by Pashin is a betrayal of the national interests of Armenia. Russia wants to get something out of the situation, but in reality it is its defeat in the south of the country. Caucasus, because it can be said that Moscow has acknowledged its defeat in Ankara and Baku, or simply did not want to confront them. All over the world, this is how Russia will show its weakness, “said Chalatian.
According to him, the reaction may spread to other countries in the region, where “Russia’s interests will intersect with Turkey’s.” “I believe that Russia has finally lost Azerbaijan. Aliyev has repeatedly reiterated that a new geopolitical reality is now emerging with Turkey. It is now unclear how events will play out in other regions as conclusions will be drawn about Russia’s policy,” said the expert.
According to Chalatian, in such circumstances, the agreement could have been signed at the beginning of the military conflict, without such losses. “There was another way out, the resistance forces were not exhausted. If such an agreement was already needed, it was necessary to go on the first day, not after such losses. Now, people no longer see the point in choosing such a humiliating deal. It is a disappointment for the Armenian community. On the other hand, it is a starting point for a new war, ”he explained.
Political scientists: Russia has shown weakness, but will reap benefits in Armenia
Russian political scientist Arkady Dubnikov noted that, formally speaking, Azerbaijan, along with Turkey, won. “On the other hand, the Armenians managed to keep the core of the occupied territory without handing it over to Azerbaijan,” the expert explained.
The expert also noted that Russia’s position on Nagorno-Karabakh showed its inability to fulfill its obligations to Armenia in the CSTO. According to the political scientist, RT Erdogan skillfully took advantage of the fact that Russia now, without Armenia, still lacks concerns (unrest in Belarus, sanctions for the poisoning of A. Navaln): the Kremlin does not dare to open the “third front” .
“Russia has once again demonstrated that it cannot be a clear ally of Armenia, to fulfill the obligations of the CSTO.
Speaking about the possible conflict between Turkey and Russia over Nagorno-Karabakh, the expert pointed out a little earlier that this is an impossible option. “There have been such dramatic conflicts almost before the breakdown of diplomatic relations and the declaration of war. However, both after the downing of the plane and after the assassination of the ambassador, the two autocrats sat down, agreed and began to shine. of sympathy and optimism. Russia does not even mark Turkey’s direct participation in the conflict, Moscow has no reason to strengthen relations with Ankara. “This is a satellite war between Russia and Turkey, exactly the same as in Syria and, in part It is said to be happening in Libya, “he told Business Gazeta.
Ilya Kusa, an expert at the Analytical Center of Ukraine, pointed out that the main beneficiaries of this situation are Turkey and Russia. “Turkey got what it wanted. She came to the South Caucasus as one of the moderators,” said an expert from Current Time.
According to him, Russia, for its part, “did not intervene in the conflict and did not spend its resources there, but now it will be able to strengthen its control in Yerevan due to the political crisis that prevails there.
Armenia announced on Monday night a peace treaty with the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia, which provides for a total cessation of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. The Russian president said in a special appeal that Russian peacekeepers will be deployed to the region and that all countries “will remain in the positions they are in now.”
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