The paradoxical Astrava situation: the possibility of Belarusian electricity entering Lithuania has not disappeared

Although the Astrava nuclear power plant started producing electricity, Lithuania terminated the electricity trade agreement with Belarus, but the possibility of Belarusian electricity entering the country has not disappeared. According to experts, according to all the laws of physics, as long as we are connected by wires, electricity flows and will flow where there will be a deficit, in this case, to Lithuania. Signatory Albinas Januška, Member of the European Parliament Andrius Kubilius, Minister of Energy Žygimantas Vaičiūnas and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Albinas Zananavičius also discussed what to do with it and how to proceed at the Lithuanian Political Forum on Monday evening.

Physically, Belarusian electricity enters Lithuania through Latvia

According to the signatory A. Januška, according to current regulations and the system that is currently in operation, the electricity produced by Astrava in the BRELL common ring (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – Past ed.) Reaches Lithuania from Latvia .

“It just came to our notice then. We see a very clear correlation that yesterday, the day before yesterday (October 7-8 – ed.) There is a physical flow of about 300 megawatts from Latvia to Lithuania, but we pay for 900 megawatts. In the sense that the commercial flow is 900 and such a difference arises. Those 500-600 megawatts are with us, in a well, from Astrava “, taught A. Januška.

Minister of Energy Ž. Vaičiūnas suggested not to confuse the physical and commercial flows, he assured that we do not buy or consume Belarusian electricity both directly and indirectly.

“Regardless of the fact that the Astravo nuclear power plant was closed due to the explosion of transformers, ed. And Belarus. That is the fact here. The antitrust law is fully implemented. There are no real questions about direct access, flow ( commercial – Past ed.) is reset within 32 minutes from the start of electricity generation, ”said Vaičiūnas.

“Trade with Russia and Belarus has so far been carried out through the so-called Lithuania-Belarus cross-section. Trading takes place on the stock exchange and thus electricity is traded. After the launch of Astrava, this section was canceled, trade is no longer conducted and is in fact transferred to the border between Latvia and Russia for Russian electricity trade. Most importantly, trade and physical flows live separate lives. There are certain trends, but we are inevitably in the same system and trade flows must be separated. Until synchronization, these flows are inevitable. We are in a balanced system, “said the Minister of Energy.

Januška disagreed with the minister, saying the figures he mentioned were unimaginative and official, according to the Lithuanian electricity transmission system operator Litgrid.

According to D. Misiūnas, former director of Lietuvos Energija, now rector of the ISM University of Administration and Economics, it is not even worth discussing the physical flows of electricity, because electricity will always flow where it is lacking. However, it is worth discussing the trade flows for which you provided an example of analogy.

“Let’s imagine the market and it connects the surrounding markets, in this case with external markets, the Russian market with certain lines. At each of these points an import point is formed, such as a “customs warehouse”. Any electricity brought there must be recognized, “cleared through customs.” Therefore, there can be nothing in the Lithuanian “customs warehouse”, because zero is allowed, but at the Latvian-Russian point, according to the current methodology, a maximum of 950 megawatts can be accepted.

About 500 megawatts have entered there in recent days. Once “authorized”, it is exactly the same as the rest of the electricity traded in the Baltic States. This means that it can actually happen that Russian electricity, Russian, I say conditionally, because that mixture can certainly also contain Astravo electricity, is traded on the internal market of the Baltic States. Also, probably some of that electricity could leak into Poland because there is a flow to Poland. It will be traded in the market and, in my opinion, it will be paid with real money, ”said D. Misiūnas.

A. Januška criticized the Minister of Energy that the new methodology developed by Litgrid would contradict the anti-astrological law and would legitimize the current situation, according to him, illegal. The Minister replied that the said law requires that electricity from Belarus not be allowed in, which is the case today.

“When in 2018 the methodology was changed by the Latvians, it was possible to suggest<..>they trade only with the electricity they can take from Russia. Don’t touch our cross section. T. and. They have about 200 megawatts of bandwidth, so trade that amount. Perhaps the minister suggested it, but the Latvians disagreed because they wanted to trade in electricity from Astrava. The Minister descended on them and delivered our cross section. We are in a common area, a tripartite cooperation. If Latvians get out of that cooperation, theoretically we can also take our toys, we can regain all balance and our flows back to ourselves.
<..> And the Minister did what he did in the methodology, which VERT (State Energy Regulatory Authority – Past ed.) Did not confirm and recognized that it does not implement the anti-astravitch law, it wanted to legitimize it. The current illegal situation, when Latvians are basically stealing electricity, would be legalized according to this new methodology, ”said A. Januška.

“We have prepared a very good negotiating framework. <..> The Antiastravic law requires that electricity from Belarus not be allowed to enter after the launch of Astrava. That is what has been done to this day. The second aspect, which is related to Russian electricity, is that it is possible to negotiate with the European Commission, the Baltic States, to implement that decision. “Said Ž. Vaičiūnas.

Offers to speak in political language with Latvia and look to the future

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs was also critical of the new proposed methodology. According to Deputy Minister A. Zananavičius, not only would this methodology not guarantee the implementation of the anti-astravia law, but it would also possibly cause problems in the future to achieve synchronization with the energy system of Western Europe.

“We have to acknowledge the fact that there is no officially valid new methodology and it is valid today in 2018. methodology. The opinion of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has always been that the methodology is valid until it is changed or until Latvia or Estonia is withdraw from it.

<...> We were faced with the situation that this methodology, in our view, had two problems<..>. The big problem is that it did not ensure the implementation of the anti-astral law. The second problem was that, in principle, this methodology led to an increase in trade with third countries. In the long term, this could have hampered the entire synchronization process, ”said A. Zananavičius.

Kubilius MEP says that the first step today should be a political conversation with Latvia, presenting arguments and seeking new common solutions.

“It just came to our attention then. And this should be done in open but political language with Latvians. Explain to Latvian citizens how we see certain actions that we are seeing today. It should be remembered that a year ago, Latvians decided to change the methodology and They said they would definitely need to buy electricity from Russia, until then all electricity was bought through Lithuania, from Kaliningrad, through the Belarusian connection. <....> I have several Latvians last year, so they also need additional electricity from Russia. <...> The only market with a significant deficit in the Baltic countries is Lithuania.<...> The question arises as to why the Latvians decided to take over the Lithuanian deficit. This is not a very fair act and should be made very clear.<...> It is necessary to speak to Latvians in very clear political language that Latvian brothers, you do not need that Russian electricity at all, if you want to do business in the Lithuanian market, that business is not decent and can ruin relations for quite some time. My first step would be this. “- said A. Kubilius.
Ž. According to Vaičiūnas, after the Latvian and Estonian regulators approved the new methodology, they are relying on it, while in Lithuania, in theory, it is still valid in 2018. methodology. Until there is a new methodology, the situation will not change in any way.

Great company with many interests

During the discussion, A. Januška repeatedly emphasized the anti-ravage law, which in his opinion was not feasible, and hinted at an attempt to influence VERT.

“An anti-astral law has not been implemented. That’s what VERT said.<..> When VERT said that, he was put under pressure. <...> The energy advisor to the presidency gave a tour of the Seimas and said if the head of VERT could be replaced by a deputy director of VERT, because he was more eloquent and that VERT approved this methodology. Here is an absolute scandal. According to the laws of Lithuania and the European energy law, VERT is an organization independent of political and commercial interests, ”said A. Januška.

“It just came to our notice then. It is not small money. We are talking about probably up to 500 million in annual turnover that someone, as a direct seller or as an intermediary, can make very solid profits. As a result, there is a lot of interest in making that trade a reality. .<...> The essential thing is to think about what we can do, because this situation is already a fact ”, said D. Misiūnas.

Ž. Vaičiūnas said that if nothing was done, now Belarus’ electricity would travel in uncontrolled flows, and now it is not.

He explained that the government of Latvia as of 2019. this issue was discussed up to four times. Three times a decision was made to exchange electricity with Belarus, and a fourth time a political decision was made not to allow Belarusian electricity. According to the Minister of Energy, it will now be necessary to continue working and to continue solving the problems with Latvia.

The program also talked about the Baltic States’ dependence on third countries and what to do so that it does not become an obstacle for the Baltic market to synchronize with Western Europe in 2025.
You can see the entire Lithuanian Policy Forum here.