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“Great day for America and Europe. We look forward to working with the new administration to restore our partnership,” Josep Borrell, EU chief of diplomacy, wrote on Twitter, congratulating Biden on his victory over Donald Trump.
But former European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, earlier, assessed the situation with his inherent openness: “Joe Biden won’t change Washington’s approach to international affairs last night because he can’t.”
Sebastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute, also believes that “Europeans must learn to live without American global leadership.”
“At least for the near future, the United States will take care of its own affairs,” said German political scientist Markus Kaimas.
Experts believe that there will be no going back to the situation in which, after the Cold War, the United States was the “Western Sheriff” for several decades and demonstrated its military strength in various ways around the world. While the United States still has carrier battle groups in different regions and bases in Europe, South Korea, Japan, Afghanistan, and Bahrain, the Americans are slowly withdrawing from conflict zones. This process, initiated by former President Barack Obama, has been further accelerated by Donald Trump.
It’s also worth noting that over the past two decades, American military attention has shifted significantly from Europe to Asia.
“We are seeing the end of US imperialism because the United States no longer wants to be a world policeman,” said Nathalie Tocci, director of the Institute for International Relations in Italy.
So what can Europeans expect from a new American president?
“Things will definitely get simpler because Mr. Biden understands Europe better than Mr. Trump,” he said. Juncker.
However, a diplomat working in Brussels warned “not to expect radical change.” Europeans “will once again have a partner and an ally, but they need to strengthen their strategic autonomy” in the economic and security spheres so that they can “defend their own interests,” the diplomat said.
Jean-Dominique Giuliani, director of the Schuman Foundation, shares this view and says that EU leaders must “define what they want to do with the United States, not just wait for me to tell them.”
Trade and climate change
“J. “During Biden’s tenure, the EU can expect much more predictable and constructive relations between the US and the EU on trade, NATO, Iran, the Middle East and, most importantly, climate change if the US seizes. joins the Paris Climate Agreement, “said Eurasia Group, a risk analysis firm. Mujtaba Rahman, Head of the European Office.
Significantly less tension is expected than in the Trump presidency in the commercial area. During his brief tenure, Washington demonstrated strength by imposing higher tariffs on steel and aluminum, prompting Europe to prepare for retaliation. The ceasefire was achieved by promising a commercial “mini-deal” but has yet to be reached.
On climate change, Biden has already said that he wants the United States to join the Paris climate agreement. He has also indicated that he wants to revoke Trump’s order to withdraw from the World Health Organization and the Iran nuclear deal.
But there are things that Biden is unlikely to change. These include the United States’ show of force in response to Chinese policies, as well as the desire to reduce American involvement in conflicts far from its territory.
“Division of labour”
Trump’s unilateral decisions and hostility toward some NATO leaders have sparked tensions and disagreements within NATO. According to one diplomat, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg wasted a lot of energy “to calm the beast.”
NATO can look forward to normalizing relations during Biden’s tenure, but analysts believe Washington will remain isolated and focus more on its own interests. “The Europeans will not like it,” whose NATO members are divided into pro-European and more Atlantic camps, Kaim said.
“Illusions about Europe’s strategic autonomy must cease: Europeans will not be able to change the important role of the United States as a provider of security,” warned German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in a comment to Politico.
For his part, Mr. Biden believes that Mr. Biden will offer Europeans a “simple division of labor: you will help us in Europe so that we can be more active in Asia.”
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