Before the US presidential election, there were unexpected assessments from a famous historian

Ferguson, who has repeatedly shown his political foresight, even betting $ 98,000 to bet on the impending recession, this time has no doubts about the victory of Democratic candidate Joe Biden.

The historian’s main argument is that the US economy “found itself in a deep well” due to the coronavirus pandemic, and D. Trump also contributed significantly to the chaos caused by COVID-19 in the country.

As a result of the same pandemic, older people, a vital part of the electorate for Republicans, have lost trust in D. Trump.

“It’s a deadly situation for a Republican candidate, because Republicans have lost young people for a long time.” If voters over 65 turn around now, especially states of oscillation (in fluctuating states – ed.), then I don’t know how it would be possible to resist such a situation ”. That is why Biden, in the historian’s view, is the first with a solid enough lead.

What Historians Will Write About D. Trump

When asked what historians will write about the Trump presidency going forward, Ferguson raised two key points.

First, he said, it should be emphasized that “in America, we have had to wait a long time for a populist reaction, especially given the number of reasons why the average American was dissatisfied. And when that finally happened, Donald Trump acted as an emotional discharge, as a catharsis, because he named out loud everything that endlessly bothered the average American: globalization, China, immigration, and liberal elites. For this reason, he obtained this victory in 2016 against the political nomenclature of the Democrats, who were infinitely satisfied with him.

Another thing that historians will no doubt appreciate in the future is the fundamental shift in America’s political course toward China under Trump’s presidency.

D. Trump “opposed the consensus with the Chinese that had prevailed since the days of Kissinger and Nixon. Thanks to him, a completely different attitude from Americans, including Democrats, towards China took over the American public space. The Second Cold War began. The United States was aware of the magnitude of the threat posed by China and, at the same time, realized that there were ways to counter it. “

Where D. Trump was more successful than his predecessor

Ferguson believes that the Trump administration has done completely well on the Chinese front. He himself personally says that he would not have used customs leverage, but “in other subject areas, such as technology, (the Trump administration – ed.) Has prevented Huawei from taking over 5G networks around the world. It has put pressure on China on Xinjiang (Hong Kong Autonomous Region), Hong Kong and Taiwan. “

By defending the Trump administration as his most important merit, the historian pointed to a hard line towards China: Trump “changed the course of Barack Obama’s fatalistic stance, saying it would not affect China in any way.”

The Trump administration’s policy has also been more successful than that of the Democrats in the Middle East.

“Obama’s policy has collapsed as Iran has intervened in the nuclear deal, continuing to be an aggressive regime in the region. Therefore, it was right to end that. Furthermore, now we are seeing Israel winning new allies in the The Gulf region, which is increasingly isolating Iran. Consequently, it must be recognized that at some points the Trump administration, by dismantling Obama’s policies, finally achieved something that I would consider a much better result, “said the historian to the European Newspaper Alliance Lena.

Republicans sit unmatched on a hijacked plane

When asked how the Republican Party could have become a “short cult” party, Ferguson used a vivid comparison to describe the situation: “Now, you can say that (Republicans – ed.) Are sitting on a hijacked plane. 2016 Short just took over, usurped the party’s nomination. ”And it didn’t happen without the help of Democrats.

When I think of 2012, it seems to me that the country would not have experienced such a division by far if Obama had received only one term and Republican Mitt Romney had been elected president. “Not because he considered Romney a perfect president, he would simply have prevented a Republican electoral revolution, and the country would not have been so divided today,” he said.

According to the historian, “it is difficult to imagine that Trump would have become a Republican candidate without Obama’s second term.”

Democrats haven’t learned from their mistakes

Unfortunately, the Democrats have not learned from their previous mistakes.

“They didn’t understand why Trump won. And the fact that Joe Biden was chosen as a candidate is a really sad sign. McCain (John McCain, 2008 Republican presidential nominee – ed.) Lost even before voters voted, as Democrats found a candidate like Barack Obama who best embodied the changes in younger politics. But this time, the Democrats didn’t really look around. They nominated a candidate so old and weak that he might even lose. If that’s the best they can offer, then the democratic nomenclature documents are really poor. “

“And because of this alone, the outcome of these elections is still unclear,” Ferguson unexpectedly questioned his prediction at the beginning of the interview.

Biden could lose the election for some catastrophic spectacle in the debate, so to speak, last night.

“After all, it’s completely hot!” – LENA’s interlocutor did not hide his disappointment.

Additionally, Biden was Obama’s vice president, and “Donald Trump became president because, in his second term, the Obama administration has completely distanced itself from a large number of people who voted for him, like in Michigan. Unfortunately, the Democrats have not realized this until now. “The people of the Obama administration hope to return to power,” the ignorance of the Democrats surprised the historian.

China may try to provoke Biden

“You have written that there is a man who could turn the Second Cold War into a Third World War, and that man is Joe Biden,” the Spanish journalist Guimón reminded the interlocutor.

Study of American history over the last century seems to have led the scholar to consider in this direction: It has become clear that “whenever newly elected Democratic presidents faced a truly important domestic political agenda, they soon embarked on large wars. This has happened to Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, John F. Kennedy, and Lyndon B. Johnson. Jimmy Carter was little involved in the war in Afghanistan. Only in the recent past have Democrats avoided war, as was the case with Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. “

And now “there could be a scenario where the Biden government comes to power, is ready to spend as much as possible on social issues and education, is ready to raise taxes and the like, and is facing an acute crisis. in Taiwan. I think China will force this issue. And the best time to do that would be the beginning of the Biden presidency. “

Biden’s main problem, according to the historian, is that due to the Second Cold War, he will not have the necessary peace for the domestic political agenda. “We need to monitor very closely what is happening in Taiwan and what trump card Xi Jinping has to legitimize his position and take advantage of the opponent’s weaknesses,” he said.

He doesn’t think Trump is going to have barricades

But in general, Ferguson is reluctant to dramatize or talk about fateful and critical life choices, regardless of their outcome. Such speeches, he said, are just banal phrases.

He said he did not believe in the theory that the country was in danger because Trump would be entrenched in the White House.

“I think we will witness the classic story of a one-term president. And the risk is only due to the norms of American policy: whether they will be restored after four years or if they will be violated for a period greater than eight years. , said.

However, there are risks for Democrats: “They might conclude that the time has come to fundamentally change the system in their favor. Republicans would then win the midterm elections and in 2022, it would be a repeat of what happened to Obama in 2010, when he overworked the first two years of his presidency and then lost Congress. “

(The Alliance of Major European Newspapers, LENA, includes Die Welt in Germany, La Repubblica in Italy, El País in Spain, Le Figaro in France, Gazeta Wyborcza in Poland, Le Soir in Belgium, and La Tribune de Switzerland in Switzerland. Geneva and Tages-Anzeiger)