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15 minutes It explains why not only the presidential elections, but also the fight for seats in the United States Senate are so important this year.
If the majority were no longer Republicans but Democrats, the latter could embark on ambitious initiatives, both for the reorganization of the Supreme Court of the United States, to which the Republicans just pushed another conservative judge, Amy Coney Barrett, and for the other Biden plans.
What does the United States Senate do?
The Senate is the upper house of the United States Congress, whose members, the senators, can introduce bills, ratify treaties, and approve important administrative officials and judges. Suppose a new Supreme Court justice, AC Barrett, is confirmed this week.
„Reuters“ / „Scanpix“ nuotr./Amy Coney Barrett
The Lower House of Congress is the House of Representatives with 435 members.
The US presidential elections are held every four years, along with a third Senate election, which employs a total of 100 senators. As for the Senate, the same proportion of senators is elected during so-called by-elections, which are held in even-numbered years when there are no presidential elections.
Senators are elected for a term of six years and candidates must be at least 30 years old.
The Senate is currently controlled by Republicans. In this House of Congress there are 53 Conservatives and 47 Democrats, it is true that the next elections could lead to important changes.
AFP / „Scanpix“ nuotr./JAV Senatas
Why is the Senate election important?
The battle for seats in the Senate is especially important to the winning presidential candidate. After all, the party that controls the Senate can have a significant influence on the agenda of the president who works at the same time: approving or rejecting the appointed officials and judges.
If, for example, Biden, who has waited for the Democrats this time, is able to defeat Trump but the left does not take control of the Senate, it is unlikely that the White House will initiate major changes in health policy, climate change or immigration.
This was already the case in 2014, when Democrats lost the Senate during the midterm elections and Barack Obama during the last two years of his second term was unable to achieve practically anything significant.
“Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Barackas Obama
Of course, a similar paralysis would be expected if Trump wins the election again: The Democratic-controlled Senate could halt his conservative initiatives and those of Republican ideologues.
It is true that sometimes it is difficult to reach an agreement now, because the Democrats have a majority in the House of Representatives; for example, there is a lack of progress in negotiating financial aid for Americans and businesses during a coronavirus pandemic.
Where will the most important battles take place?
According to polls, eight of the ten Senate seats the controlling party is likely to change are currently owned by Republicans. This year, the party defends 23 senators, 12 Democrats.
Democrats believe Republican-owned senators representing the states of Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Montana and Iowa could rebound. The left also calculates that it is possible to take over Arizona and Colorado from the conservatives.
Eight of the ten Senate seats likely to change the controlling party currently belong to Republicans.
On the other hand, there is little doubt that Democrats will lose a senator representing the conservative state of Alabama, where they won the 2017 special election.
That means Democrats will have to take five Senate seats away from Republicans. Fourth, if Biden wins the presidential election, because then Kamala Harry, who will become vice president, will have a casting vote in the event of a tie in any Senate vote.
„Scanpix“ nuotr./Kamala Harris
For their part, Republicans look to Alabama, as well as Michigan, as they hope to defeat and strengthen their positions in the upper house of Congress.
Which candidates are the most important?
In the state of Maine, it may not be easy for Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who has been working since 1996 – some voters are dissatisfied with her only moderate support for Trump, others are disappointed that she has not resolutely opposed the chaotic orders from the president. And this is an opportunity for the Democrats.
Reuters / Scanpix Photo / US Republican Senator Susan Collins
Republican Senator Cory Gardner, who is ending his first term and seeking reelection, is uneasy in Colorado. This state has become bruised and loathed by Trump in recent years, who considers Gardner his loyal ally.
A similar situation occurs in Arizona. Conservative Martha McSally, known for her loyalty to Trump, is far behind former astronaut, Democratic candidate Mark Kelly, as the president is not liked by Spanish-speakers in the state or by residents of the suburbs.
In Michigan, though, it’s already tough for Democrat Gary Peters. Although it is backed by 43 percent. voters, Republican John James fills his senator with 42 percent. voter support. It is true that, as already mentioned, Alabama Democrat Doug Jones is very likely to lose his place in the Senate.
„Reuters“ / „Scanpix“ nuotr./Dougas Jonesas
So who will win in the end?
So far, the race for control of the Senate appears to be even fiercer than the fight for presidential candidates. Biden is expected to defeat Trump and the Democrats to retain the majority in the House of Representatives, but the composition of the Senate is far from clear.
So far, The Economist researchers say Democrats should win a slim majority of 52 out of 100 seats. The Republicans would then have 48 seats.
AFP / Scanpix Photo / Joe Biden and Donald Trump
It is true that in early October, after Trump’s tragic appearance in the first presidential debate and the sharp rise in coronavirus infections, Republicans’ chances seemed worse than they are now. In recent weeks, the right wing has invested a record amount of money in critical election states.
Importantly, a new Supreme Court judge, ACBarrett, was confirmed this week. This can mobilize conservative voters; on the other hand, Democrats can do the same.
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