Three scenarios were calculated: without full quarantine, the numbers would grow dramatically

The graph published on the researcher’s blog shows that the situation regarding the incidence of coronavirus could change depending on the behavior of the population and the factors adopted by the government. The scientist himself emphasizes that this analysis is just different scenarios that cannot be considered predictions.

“There are no models in the world that can reliably predict the course of Covid-19 for a period longer than two weeks,” said A. Džiugys.

In scenario A (marked with a dashed red line in the graph), we see how, according to the calculations of A. Džiugis, the average number of daily infections would increase if it remained at approximately 2.5-3% at the end of September- beginning of October. relative increase in daily infections and no additional protective measures (quarantine) are introduced. This is the most pessimistic scenario.

In the case of this scenario, the government decisions that were made this Wednesday have not yet been evaluated (because they were not available at the time of preparation).

The graph presented shows that Lithuania would possibly reach the indicator of 1,000 new cases per day as early as December, and the disease curve would continue to rise. You don’t even see the downtrend on the dash chart.

“The number of new infections per day is growing by 3 percent. This is exponential growth. The curve should win out sooner or later, but these are already very large numbers. And up to a few thousand (three thousand or even more) cases new per day, the limit will not appear automatically, and if no new measures are adopted or the behavior of the population does not change, the curve will continue to rise ”, explained A. Džiugys.

Scenario B (the dashed blue line in the graph) shows how the average number of infections per day would increase if the same scenario A, but the government still decided to introduce quarantine after late (November 7) like May-June, when the 2% . relative decrease in daily infections. This is the most optimistic scenario.

“It just came to our notice then. The full quarantine was introduced on March 16, after which, after a while, it was released. Since I don’t think the government would introduce full quarantine even on 1,000 or 1,500 new cases per day, for economic reasons, and that would not bother people, it would be enough to introduce a quarantine that would be as effective in May-June as daily. 2 percent decrease in new cases “, said A. Džiugys.

The graph shows that after the introduction of the post-Tardy quarantine, the curve would increase slightly for some time and then the numbers would start to decline.

Based on experience, from what has already been in other countries and with us, we know that after the introduction of quarantine, your measures in the country become fully operational only after two or three weeks, so after Since the introduction of quarantine we see growth for some time. So – visible 2 percent. fall, if the effectiveness of the quarantine is the same as in June-May “, – commented A. Džiugys.

Scenario C (marked with a purple dashed line in the graph) shows how the average daily number of infections would increase if the quarantine efficiency were the same as in September (relative increase in daily infections 5.8%, and after late (November 7) Government introduces quarantine as in May-June, when a relative reduction of 2% of daily infections was assured.

The main difference between scenarios B and C depends on psychological factors: people’s response to the situation.

“It just came to our knowledge then. For example, as soon as the number of infections increases, they start protecting themselves without additional quarantine measures. They go to work less, stay home more, avoid mass events, stop running to bars and However, after watching for a while, they see fewer infections being recorded again, eventually they wake up and get tired, and relax again.

That relaxation that followed the summer, in September, when young people came to schools and universities, ran to celebrate in bars and discos, resulted in berods of 5.8 percent. the increase in new cases per day. If this trend continued, we would see the situation on curve C towards Late. The further course of the scenario is that the uninitiated government would introduce quarantine after the Last Days, at the same level as in the case of curve B.

According to the scientist, the situation that is observed in reality is so far between scenarios B and C.

I do not believe that current measures are sufficient to fundamentally change the situation

The scientist doubts that the course of the epidemic is affected by those measures that the government already adopted last Wednesday for two weeks.

“It seems to me that the incidence of these measures will not begin to decrease. As I understand it, your goal is to manage the situation so that the health system does not become overloaded. (…) After two weeks, we will see what the situation is, if the trend of infections continues, probably additional measures will be taken, ”said A. Džiugys.

The researcher found that people take additional measures usually psychologically motivated by a few round numbers. And that psychological limit changes over time.

Remember that in the spring, 60 cases per day were psychologically more active than the current 300 cases. Then he feared 100, now he feared 1000 cases. When we exceed 1,000 cases, then, let’s say, we fear 5,000 cases, ”said A. Džiugys.

Forecast methodology

The researcher explained in his blog that the scripting methodology was developed together with colleagues and Martynas Bieliūnas from Privacy partners and published in the scientific journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals.

The main assumptions of the method are:
1. At this stage of the epidemic, the number of infected and relapsing people is many times less than the population.
2. Registered infected persons will be effectively isolated.
3. The number of infections per day depends conditionally on the number of infected yesterday, and not on the number of those still infected (active infected), since all identified infections are isolated with sufficient efficiency. This is the main difference between the method and the models of the SIR / SEIR family.
4. Imports of infections from abroad are small compared to domestic.
5. The growth or suppression of newly recorded infections depends on quarantine measures and the level of self-protection of the population. If that level is constant, then the rate of growth or suppression of daily infections is also constant.
6. The number of new daily infections recorded is high enough to ensure that infections are no longer isolated or accidental.

“Based on these assumptions and the course of the epidemic in Lithuania and other countries in the world, the acceleration of the epidemic (growth rate of daily recorded infections) depends on quarantine and protection measures for the population (mobility, distance, crowd avoidance, etc.) efficiency Let’s call it quarantine efficiency.

Fresh air is also one of the most important factors in quarantine effectiveness. For example, at the beginning of the pandemic, it was found that more than 90% of all massive infections involving more than 4 people at a time occurred indoors. And the most important consequence of quarantine is that registered infected people are isolated and no longer infect others, “said the researcher in the article.

Furthermore, according to the researcher, population mobility is very important for the course of the epidemic. Many people like to cite the Swedes as an example that it is possible to do too much and not protect yourself, and there will be few illnesses. However, the mobility analysis presented by M. Bieliūnas shows that Swedes protect themselves no less, and perhaps even more, than Lithuanians. late summer / early fall Swedes are much more at home and less at work and sadly those declines are much less with us.

You can find more information about the methodology and statements used for the construction of scenarios here.