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In the Seimas elections after the second round, TS-LKD has 50 seats (one seat – in a question mark due to the vote count in Utena – aut.), The Liberal Movement 13 and the Freedom Party – 11 seats. This means that the right-wing parties will have 74 representatives.
With this in mind, the Conservatives could run for 9.5 ministerial portfolios, the Liberal Movement for 2.5 ministerial portfolios, and the seats promised by the Freedom Party promise two ministers in the new government.
L. Bielinis: Those who have not received anything can participate in sabotage
However 15 minutes Interlocutors say that even though the Conservatives are in the most favorable bargaining position, the math won’t come first.
Professor at the Vytautas Magnus Lauras Bielinis University 15 minutes He said Monday that it is only natural that those with the most seats may be eligible for the most seats.
“There are certain formulas and even the smallest faction that joins the coalition can expect certain positions for its members, because otherwise the faction just won’t leave, but communication can become risky. Without receiving anything, they can ignore many things. , that is to say, getting involved in sabotage, ”said the political scientist.
Photo by Julius Kalinskas / 15min / Laura Bielinis
L. Bielinis emphasized that the division of power will not only count the ministries, but also the positions in the Seimas, which are also very important and diverse.
“Conservatives must have a vested interest in making those who are their allies feel that their goals and interests are being met and that there is no conflict in this way just because conservatives want to take everything and they want to dominate everywhere.” – emphasized L. Bielinis.
The interlocutor added that he believes that conservatives will be able to look at the situation seriously and take their partners into account.
M. Baltrukevičius: it is important not to delay
Matas Baltrukevičius, Associate Analyst, Vilnius Institute for Political Analysis 15 minutes He said Monday that both liberal parties really understand that without them the ruling majority is impossible and that they will try to exploit this factor.
“Of course, the arithmetic is completely on the side of the TS-LKD, because both liberal parties together have twice the number of seats. But that does not mean that they will not be able to negotiate good conditions, because they need that support,” he emphasized.
According to M. Baltrukevičius, even though we now see good will from all three parties to reach an agreement, the negotiations will not be that simple.
Photo by Vidmantas Balkūnas / 15min / Matas Baltrukevičius
Furthermore, he said, the context of the pandemic will put additional pressure.
“Imagine what the situation will be like if morbidity increases, and here there is something in disagreement about one or two ministries and therefore a new government is not formed. Well, nobody wants a scenario like this ”, emphasized the interlocutor.
He added that the Liberal Party will surely have a chance to put pressure on the Conservatives.
“Realizing, within the limits of their minds, that this deal doesn’t need to take too long and is very much needed in general,” the political scientist said.
The Liberal Movement talks about the positions before the negotiations
TS-LKD Chairman Gabrielius Landsbergis said on Monday after his visit to Chairman Gitan Nausėda that the party would have no red lines for future conversations on the messages. “First of all, we are ready to listen to the coalition partners, we have no plans for ourselves,” he said.
Aušrinė Armonaitė, leader of the Freedom Party, said on Monday that it is important to agree the presidents with the coalition partners and to name the desired ministries, according to her, would be irresponsible.
Without waiting for negotiations on power, the leaders of the Liberal Movement are eager to tell all who listen what positions they will seek. Ministries and candidates for ministers are also very openly appointed. The party indicates that it intends to seek three positions in the Government: Simon Kairis, adviser to the mayor of Lithuania, the Minister of Economy and Innovation, and Simon Gentvil, vice president of the party, and the party does not reveal the candidate for Minister of Education , but claims to have a very good candidate.
Photo by Julius Kalinskas / 15min / Simonas Gentvilas, Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, Simonas Kairys
The party also declared that it will seek the post of president of Seimas on Sunday evening, for which the party president, Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, has already planned.
I don’t see anything so sinful here.
“I don’t see anything so sinful here,” L. Bielinis said that the party publicly expressed its wishes.
According to him, the party declares a negotiating position, and after the negotiations we will see if the Liberal Movement will be able to negotiate as it wants.
According to M. Baltrukevičius, the mentioned preferred portfolios can be considered as the initial negotiating position, but raising the relatively high requirements in advance is not the most beautiful signal for the coalition partners.
“From A. Armonaitė, who talks more about employment than positions, it can be understood that the Ministry of Education, Science and Sports, the Ministry of Economy and Innovation are the ministries that both liberal parties would like. I think TS-LKD couldn’t take both of them either. It will definitely not be easy to reach an agreement on the positions ”, he emphasized.
And the Ministry of Health?
The political scientist M. Baltrukevičius stated that today the importance of the Ministry of Health is as great as before.
Visibility, of course, adds to this post as well. Although we have seen that Aurelia did not help much in the election, “he added.
According to M. Baltrukevičius, the most important thing is not which party will run for the Ministry of Health, but who will be able to offer him the best leader.
“We may not know it, maybe we will keep those potential candidates in the negotiations.” However, I think the most logical option would be to ask us who could offer which specialists and then decide which would have the most competition. Because the public’s expectations are that we want a strong and professional minister, “he said.
The cost of individual allies is disproportionately high
So far, the majority of the new government is fragile, with 74 seats.
According to L. Bielinis, this number should not be attached to this number yet, the majority will not necessarily have 74 votes, it is possible that individual members of the Seimas will join the rulers.
“Let’s not fix that 74, it could increase. There are 4 self-proclaimed, there are some dissatisfactions and some ambitions in the factions that are now in opposition, the members can withdraw from them, everything can be. We will definitely still get and see all kinds of combinations that they will arise, they will change again. In a word, it is life, “said L. Bielinis.
Historically, individual actors are not something they can depend on to a great extent.
According to M. Baltrukevičius, it is natural for rulers to seek more allies, there is only one problem that in such cases the price of support from those individual allies is disproportionately high for a single vote.
“Apparently, not a single politician would be interested in: Algirdas Butkevičius has stated why not, and Vytautas Bakas, Domas Griškevičius are probably among those politicians who would really consider such a possibility.. There are opportunities to expand, but from a historical point of view, individual actors are not something you can trust very much, ”the interviewee is convinced.
He recalled that the “peasants” had the support of Naglio Puteikis and Povilas Urbšis, but it did not end in the most beautiful colors.
“Associations are more credible at the party level,” he said.
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