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Thus, on Sunday, experts commented on a poll conducted by Vilmorus on behalf of the BNS news agency, which showed that every second Lithuanian resident would be vaccinated against the coronavirus with the arrival of the vaccine, and the same number of Lithuanians would reject the vaccine.
According to doctors, public authorities, researchers and the media must already ensure that people get to informed information to counter the spread of false information.
Professor Aurelija Žvirblienė, a researcher at the Vilnius University Life Sciences Center, says it can be difficult to change the opinion of constipated skeptics of vaccines, but efforts need to be directed at those who do not have an opinion. According to the study, there are about 15% of them.
“I think it would be possible to convince, because people often doubt; the same goes for vaccines for children.” There are many liars, they are very convincing because people tend to believe in dangers, they tend to protect themselves and their children. If people didn’t feel precise enough, with scientific information and risk, I think they would change their mind, “the researcher told BNS.
Photo by Lukas Balandis / 15min / Aurelija Žvirblienė
Scientists estimate that with a high efficacy of the vaccine, the spread of the virus could be stopped by vaccination with 60-70 percent. populations.
However, the effectiveness is likely to be lower, and the European Medicines Agency (EMA) says it has registered a vaccine that is 60 percent effective. In this case, it would be more difficult to stop the spread of the virus.
“If we put together 60 percent vaccination and 60 percent effectiveness of the vaccine, less than half of the population would be protected. Let’s add a few more who will be sick. Therefore, it may be that even in such a successful scenario where the vaccine is developed, registered, 60 percent of people are vaccinated, it may not stop the spread of the virus at all, ”said A.Žvirblienė.
According to the professor, public opinion can also change due to the rapid spread of the virus: in cases of the disease, there would be a decrease in the number of people who believe that the virus is absent or completely harmless.
If we add that the vaccination is 60 percent and the effectiveness of the vaccine is 60 percent, less than half of the population would be protected.
“A darker scenario, if it awaits us in the winter, could change people’s opinion,” said the expert.
70 percent is an insurmountable limit
Infectologist, Vilnius University professor Arvydas Ambrozaitis says that with the current public mood, it will be difficult to achieve the goal set by the Lithuanian government of vaccinating at least 70%. population of the country.
“I think it is difficult for 70 percent of people to get vaccinated, and I am skeptical of that goal. At least, according to the experts, we have to vaccinate at least 60 percent, then it would be calm: we would not be threatened by waves, quarantines, we would have to be less careful, “he said.
According to the professor, vaccination should be seen as an action of citizen solidarity because it is important not only for the individual but for society as a whole.
“There is solidarity, citizenship, that I am not vaccinated for my own good, but for the good of handling this disaster for humanity,” said A. Ambrozaitis.
He noted that Lithuanians’ skeptical attitude towards vaccines is also revealed by the flu situation: only about a tenth of the population and only a fifth of people at risk get vaccinated against flu each year.
According to A. Ambrozaitis, the media must also play an important role in this matter, their duty is to speak with experts who know the subject.
“I think it is possible to influence the undecided, it just has to be media education; we need to educate people more, provide more correct information, neutralize conspiracy theories so that experts can speak more. “Now it is rumored that the idea has been inflated, that it is a fictitious virus, spread to ‘destroy the ancestors’, that the monkey adenovirus is being used and that we will become monkeys, all kinds of nonsense,” he said the scientist.
There is solidarity, of citizenship, that I am not vaccinated for myself, but for the sake of managing this disaster for humanity.
During the study, 1,000 Lithuanians were asked how they would behave if a coronavirus vaccine were developed and available.
42.9 percent. of those surveyed said they would get vaccinated, 42.5 percent. said they would not be vaccinated, and 14.7 percent. he had no opinion.
From October 9 to 18, thousands of adult Lithuanians were interviewed.
Vaccines expected next year
Epidemiologists believe that in the current situation, vaccination against the coronavirus could only begin next year.
“It would be very, very good if it were for the next fall season. And I really wouldn’t expect the vaccine to show up here in the spring or to help stop the winter outbreak now, “said A.Žvirblienė.
A. Ambrozaitis emphasized that so far no vaccine has been completed in phase III clinical trials, which involve tens of thousands of volunteers in various countries, and must evaluate all possible side effects for how long the vaccine protects against the virus. .
“It is not possible to complete the third phase of the clinical trial this year, simply nobody will register the vaccine. Realistically, you have to think that either in the summer or in the fall of next year, there will be enough data at the end of the third phase of the clinical trial to show that this vaccine is sufficiently effective and safe ”, emphasized the researcher.
He said the coronavirus could change, but so far its mutations are not believed to pose a threat that the developed vaccine will not work, unlike the rapidly changing flu virus, from which a new vaccine is developed every year.
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