Bloomberg: Most authoritarian leaders now fear fear

It is likely that officials in many states will find it easier to breathe a sigh of relief at the end of the most unusual, sometimes even chaotic, presidency in America today, but there will also be those who have reason to long for it.

The leaders of Turkey, North Korea and Israel have been exceptionally helpful during the Trump presidency, after which they would face immediate difficulties. For countries like China, the contestant’s letter is more nuanced, but most authoritarian leaders who have benefited from Trump’s four-year presidency now fear that the United States will revert to a more conventional foreign policy when he leaves the leadership position. from the country.

This would mean improving relations with allies, establishing universal values: democracy, human rights, and the desire to reduce climate change. “This president favors all the bandits in the world,” said Joe Biden, Trump’s opponent, at a recent official event to highlight political differences.

Kim jong unas

When Trump became president, no other U.S. relationship with a foreign country has changed in the same way as relations with North Korea. The mutual threats and insults heard at first gradually turned into a kind of love: Kim Jong Un and D. Trump had met three times and exchanged more than twenty letters, testifying to the mysterious and strange sympathy between them.

Still, even after radically changing its position, the United States was unable to get North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapon. October 10 Kim Jong Un announced a new ICBM capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads.

Judging by Biden’s declaration that he will not meet with the North Korean leader without preconditions, the lifting of the sanctions that have caused the deepest recession in the North Korean economy in twenty years is even less likely.

Mohammedas bin Salmanas

Trump demonstrated his approach to international relations with Saudi Arabia in 2017, choosing Riyadh for his first overseas visit. There, the new American leader was greeted by a huge portrait of him on the facade of an elegant hotel where D. Trump and his delegation stayed.

The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia has achieved many achievements, the most significant of which is D. Trump’s withdrawal from 2015. nuclear deal with a deadly rival in Saudi Arabia, Iran. Trump also offered personal support and vetoed congressional sanctions when indictments were made against bin Salman in 2018. He ordered the assassination of a well-known critic of his regime, Yamal Khashoggi.

It is true that Saudi Arabia has also experienced disappointment, for example after 2019. In the attacks on oil production complexes in eastern Saudi Arabia, which the United States believes were carried out by Iran, Mr. Trump did not responded with a military attack. Saudi leaders are also confident of finding common ground with Biden. On the other hand, Trump’s short-term resignation is likely to lead to a renewed US focus on human rights and an opportunity to renew the Iran deal.

Tayyipas Erdogan Recipes

More than bin Salman, the Turkish president needs political protection from Trump. Trump was the only one who came between Turkey and Congress to impose sanctions on RT Erdogan for deciding to buy the S-400 air defense missile system from Russia, despite Turkey’s membership in NATO.

This personal connection allowed RT Erdogan to persuade Trump to withdraw US troops from Kurdish-controlled regions in northern Syria so that Turkey could send its military forces there and take control of those areas. The decision was made by Trump without consulting either the Pentagon or the US allies in Syria against the “Islamic State” – the UK, France and the Kurdish fighters whom Turkey considers terrorists.

With the sanctions already in place and given that Biden has already called on the United States to support the Turkish opposition parties, Erdogan’s defeat in the presidential election would be the most damaging.

Xi Jinpingas

Trump’s treatment of China has been more militant than other American presidents in recent years, imposing import tariffs on Chinese products and restricting the sale of technology to a large Chinese company. However, Chinese officials have said that it would be more acceptable to them if Trump remained in power.

China benefits from the fact that Trump shook up the post-WWII alliance system, which China sees as an obstacle to its geopolitical ambitions. He also downplayed the international importance of the United States by withdrawing from the accords, pursuing a policy of “American leadership” and allowing the Chinese president to fill gaps in areas ranging from trade to climate change.

Beijing is concerned that Biden is seeking to create a more coordinated international front in its dealings with China, as well as continuing to put pressure on trade and technology. It’s true that China could benefit from a less emotional relationship with Washington if D. Trump loses, says Zhu Feng, professor of international relations at Nanjing University: “Do people really want a Cold War between China and the United States?”

Vladimir Putin

Following alleged Russian interference in the 2016 elections, the United States launched a formal investigation, culminating in a 448-page report. And yet Putin won a great victory. Trump questioned the value of NATO and even the status of allies like Germany, thus weakening the transatlantic alliance that Russia and even Stalin-era Soviet leaders sought to destroy.

There is no reason to believe that this trend would continue during the term of the second Trump administration. By the way, the Russian president has made more concrete achievements, from the lifting of sanctions to the advancement of arms control negotiations. Russian officials see prospects for improving relations, which would decline if the Biden administration comes to power.

According to 2019. Fionos Hill, executive director of the European and Russian affairs division of the former US National Security Council, may try to change the situation instead of lamenting anti-Russian sentiment. “They could slow down those who are walking and try to goad the people around them,” said F. Hill, who currently works at the Brookings Institution. – Encounters with us could stop watering our eyes. The elementary school could stop doing this. “

Jairas Bolsonaro

For the Brazilian president Jairus Bolsonaro in political matters, D. Trump is the brother of the soul. According to public opinion polls, Biden has reached a significant gap with Trump, a Brazilian cabinet member seeking re-election, and Bolsonaro is increasingly concerned about future ties to the White House.

2019 President-elect Bolsonaro ended Brazil’s foreign policy, which kept a distance of several decades ago, and began to strongly support the United States and its allies. For his part, Trump lifted the ban on fresh meat imports, supported Brazil’s proposal to join the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and signed a cooperation agreement on defense and space research.

Brazil’s Foreign Minister, Ernesto Araujo, has mentioned that there should be no difficulties with the Biden administration, but Bolsonar’s environmental policy would face strong opposition. According to Biden, Brazil faces economic consequences if it does not stop cutting down Amazon forests.

Benjaminas Netanyahu

Trump has once again broken the US precedent by supporting the Israeli leader’s nationalist position and recognizing the Golan Heights as Israeli territory, in addition to moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. Plans to annex part of the Palestinian West Bank have been postponed, but could be resumed with Trump’s election to a second term.

Perhaps the biggest reward came in September: Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed historic agreements to normalize relations in the White House, mediated by D. Trump. One bit of failure is the decline in the party’s support for Israel in Congress. Many Israelis fear that the Biden administration will take a harsher view of their country, and security officials are concerned that the United States may return to a nuclear deal with Iran.

Andrzej Duda and Victor Orban

The leaders of Poland and Hungary, who stand out among the ranks of the most liberal European leaders, are comforted by D. Trump. 2017 chose Warsaw to deliver a meaningful speech welcoming Duda’s right-wing political agenda, which is also close to that of Hungarian Prime Minister Orban.

In the run-up to the elections, the Hungarian prime minister openly demonstrated his support for Trump and expressed his unwillingness for the return of moral imperialism, which would take root in the White House under a Democratic administration.

Both of the aforementioned politicians, like Trump, despise political justice, which could create friction with Biden. Mr. Duda has named the LGBT community in front of Polish families. In September, Biden condemned several Polish regions on Twitter that had declared themselves “zones without LGBT ideology.”

In a comment on Trump’s favor toward bandits, Biden singled out Hungary, Poland and Belarus, warning of threats to NATO from “emerging totalitarian regimes around the world.”